Champ or Chump: James Wood Fantasy Baseball Outlook

July 2, 2024

Is highly-regarded Washington Nationals prospect James Wood a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into his 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

Once again, a huge prospect made his MLB debut. James Wood, 21, is the No. 3 prospect in the game per FanGraphs and MLB.com, and his tools are comparable to Elly De La Cruz. He has crushed MiLB pitching, combining an advanced plate approach with eye-popping exit velocity numbers.

Of course, many highly-touted rookies have struggled in 2024. Wood has substantial swing-and-miss in his game and hasn't mastered the art of lifting the baseball, creating a discrepancy between his raw power and power output in games.

Wood is currently rostered in 59% of leagues, and that number will skyrocket now that he's on the MLB roster. Is Wood the savior your fantasy team is looking for or a waste of FAAB? Let's find out!

The Scouting Report on James Wood

Wood was a polarizing prospect during the 2021 draft. Some scouts saw him as a centerfielder with limitless power upside, while others saw a first baseman with questionable contact skills. He was selected in the second round by the Padres and signed for first-round money, splitting the difference between the two viewpoints.

He took to professional baseball immediately, impressing enough in 2022 to be included in the Juan Soto trade. Coming into 2024, his scouting report is glowing:

FanGraphs isn't completely sold on his hit tool, but Wood has elite raw power that's already showing up in games. He also has above-average foot speed and has improved enough defensively to play any outfield position at the MLB level. The write-up compares him to Adam Dunn as a prospect, who was far more athletic before filling out his frame and becoming a one-dimensional slugger.

Wood's MLB.com scouting report is even more promising:

Combining MLB-average contact skills with 70-grade pop is huge, especially with above-average marks for fielding and baserunning. The fantasy upside is obvious.

The Potential Upside of James Wood

Wood doesn't have a huge MiLB resume, but he's generally hit at every level with outstanding peripherals. He began the 2023 season at High-A (Wilmington), a notorious pitcher's park. That didn't stop him from hitting .293/.392/.580 with eight homers and eight steals in 181 PAs. A 20-year-old with a 14.4% BB% is incredible, and his 10.8% SwStr% suggests he didn't deserve his 27.1% K%. He was also successful on 89% of his steal attempts (8-for-9).

Wood flashed huge pop with a 22.9% HR/FB. He ran a .371 BABIP at Wilmington, but his profile suggested a high BABIP. Wood's wheels allow him to beat out grounders other players cannot, and he posted a pristine 2.9% IFFB%. Wood quickly earned a promotion to Double-A (Harrisburg).

Wood's line declined at Double-A as he slashed .248/.334/.492 with 18 HR and 10 steals across 368 PAs. Swing-and-miss became a problem with a 33.7% K% backed by a 14.7% SwStr%, but the rest of his peripherals remained strong. Wood was 10-for-12 on SB attempts (83% success), his FB% improved from 34.3% to 37.4%, his 24.3% HR/FB was elite, and he maintained his eye with a 10.6% BB%.

Wood began the 2024 campaign with Triple-A (Rochester) and was fantastic. He hit .353/.463/.595 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 231 PAs. His 10.7% SwStr% was reminiscent of his work at Wilmington, and the resulting 18.2% K% nearly equaled his 17.3% BB%. Wood was 10-for-11 on SB attempts for a 91% success rate, and his .410 BABIP was fueled in part by his 18.4% FB%. His 37% HR/FB was insane.

We have Baseball Savant statistics for Triple-A hitters, and Wood's are special. His average airborne exit velocity of 95.1 mph would tie for third on the MLB leaderboard with Oneil Cruz, behind only Aaron Judge (97 mph) and Shohei Ohtani (95.5 mph). MLB pitching is harder to hit than MiLB pitching, but you can't fake contact quality like that.

The Potential Downside of James Wood

Two potential pitfalls in Wood's game are strikeouts and loft. Wood is a huge man at six feet and seven inches tall, giving him long levers that will always make swing-and-miss part of his profile. Wood is especially flummoxed by changeups, a weakness that MLB hurlers will try to exploit. Some scouts are also concerned about how he will handle MLB velocity.

Loft is a bigger issue. Wood's 34.3% FB% at Wilmington and 37.4% FB% at Harrisburg were okay, but he may have changed his swing when the Nationals told him to cut down his whiffs after last season. His 18.4% FB% at Rochester is way too low for a guy with a 37% HR/FB. Worse, he's eliminating the wrong flies. Wood's 14.8% IFFB% at Triple-A was five times higher than his mark at High-A. He's still hitting pop-ups, and they now represent a larger share of his overall airborne contact.

His 10.1% rate of Brls/BBE (Barrels per Batted Ball Event) would tie for 76th on the MLB leaderboard with Ryan Jeffers, much less impressive than his company when exit velocity was considered alone. That's a direct result of his inability to consistently elevate the ball.

The Nationals don't boast a killer lineup, so Wood will probably struggle to put up counting numbers even if he performs well. He hit sixth in his MLB debut, a role that doesn't lend itself to many R+RBI. That said, Washington doesn't have many established veterans either. If Wood performs, he should be promoted to a more important lineup role.

The Final Verdict on James Wood

Wood is a wild card in the fantasy landscape. He runs well and posted sterling success rates on SB attempts in the minors, so he should have a green light right away in Washington. He's a strong enough defender that his glove shouldn't cost him playing time, and his contact quality is special.

However, strikeouts could limit his batting average in the near term and he may not elevate the ball frequently enough to actualize his raw power. Playing for the Nationals may suppress his counting stats too.

Ultimately, Wood is a high-risk, high-reward option. He'll probably cost a ton of FAAB, so he makes sense on a roster that needs to roll the dice and make things happen. There's at least one team like that in every league, so we'll call him a Champ for his potential to turn a fantasy team's season around single-handedly.

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