Buy / Sell Hitters Week 10: Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice

June 5, 2014

Billy Johnston analyzes some buy / sell fantasy baseball hitters for week 10. These MLB players are either undervalued or are at their peak and should be sold.

Although he's way more of a predictable power hitter than some of the potential sleepers on list below, it was still awesome to watch Edwin Encarnacion have the best May we’ve seen since Mickey Mantle. With 17 home runs and 33 RBI in the past 30 days (not games), I’d say he’s hotter than the David Price and David Ortiz beef. I am absolutely kicking myself for passing on him in the draft.  He was my #1 overall player heading into the season, but in the end, his lack of production outside of his last two years was my determining factor.

With that said, I’ve got a guy who I’m selling this week that I did pass on and am grateful for that bit of luck. My team still needs quite a bit of work, and I’m sure yours does to, but that's why we have waiver wire and buy/sell analysis. Therefore I present to you:

Hitters To Buy In Trades

Mark Teixeira – 1B , Yankees

Hitting cleanup for the Yankees all but guarantees a good season.  Mark Teixeira is returning back from injury this week and is only owned in 74.7% of ESPN leagues.

The past month Tex has been sporting a low .241 BABIP, but his career average is .290, which means he is either unlucky or plagued by injury.  He may be getting old and banged up, but the dude can still hit for plenty of power.  He currently has an  ISO of .234 and HR/FB ratio of 24.3%.  This might mean that the injury is not as much to blame for his lack of production. His lack of luck is.  I expect his BABIP to trend up towards his career average, as well as his disappointing .242 AVG towards his career average of .277.

His 137 wRC+ this season will help more teams than 74.7% of teams.  I sure could use 37% more run creation than the league average from a single player.

Kyle Seager – 3B, Mariners

Kyle Seager is actually hitting less line drives and fly balls with more ground balls than his career average this year, but you couldn’t tell by his production.  In the past 15 days, Kyle Seager has 3 HR and 13 RBI.  That doesn’t sound like much, but when you factor in that Seager has a .231 ISO this year verse his career average of .168 and 14.1 HR/FB ratio, you know this guy is hitting well.

He has been a run-creating monster with a 140 wRC+.  His 36 RBI are good for 21^st among all hitters in baseball this year.  He may slow down eventually, but his BABIP currently sits at .310, which is not far from his career average of .292.  Don’t expect him to regress much, if he does.

Lonnie Chisenhall – 3B/DH, Indians

Before I continue about Lonnie Chisenhall, let me say first that I do think he is due for some regression.  However, Lonnie is showing great signs of improvement at the plate and can still put in a good season for the Indians.  Compared to his career averages, he is hitting the ball harder (176 ISO verse his career .168), striking out less (15.6% verse career 18.7%), and is making better contact by hitting more fly balls to ground balls (.80 GB/FB ratio verse career .95).

Let’s not forget that he is creating 70% more runs than the league average with a wRC+ 170.

Hitters To Sell In Trades

Marlon Byrd – OF, Phillies

Something is bound to give with Marlon Byrd.  Will it be his .362 BABIP or his 28.7% K%?  My money is on his BABIP considering his career average is .326.

With a current AVG of .274 (already lower than his career .280 AVG) and hitting roughly 40 BABIP points higher than his norm, expect Byrd to show some regression going forward. Byrd can still hit above 20 HR for only the 3^rd time in his career, so he still has some fantasy value.  However, with Byrd approaching 37 years of age, his running start to the season might not be enough to sustain long-term fantasy value.

Starling Marte – OF, Pirates

Starling Marte only has 4 SB in past 30 days while only hitting for a .202 AVG, which doesn’t bode well for his speedy reputation. Marte’s batted ball percentages are hovering around his career averages, but just he just isn't getting the “go” signal from his coaches, taking away most of his value.  As a result, Marte is creating 8% less runs than the league average.

The good news is that he is still young and still has plenty of potential.  With an average draft position of 74.8 in ESPN leagues, trading Marte for a 6^th or 7^th round draft pick (depending on the league) is entirely possible, and worth it.

Adam Jones – OF, Orioles

Adam Jones averaged a 15.2 draft position in ESPN leagues this year, which is too high for his current production. He has shown a reduction in power by his .143 ISO verse his career .178 average, which is not bad but still not worth the 15th pick in the draft.

Compared the to rest of the league, Jones is creating 4% less runs. This could be caused by his lowered LD% of 15.2% and raised GB% of 50.5. Not stellar numbers for a power hitter. Jones’s 0.10 BB/K ratio is what is really killing him this year and unless he shows better discipline at the plate, I wouldn’t expect him to have another season like his .285/.318/.493 slash line, 33 HR season last year.