RADIO
Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 19. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.
Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early-season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.
Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need. These rules can be broken as we get down the stretch of the season and every win matters. If you need a win in H2H or a particular category filled in rotisserie, buy or sell what you must to get to where you need. The home stretch is dark and full of terrors. Injured and underperforming players can be let go if they are taking up a roster spot that could be filled by someone much more productive. Evaluate wisely.
Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.
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Undervalued Players - Week 19
These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.
Jesse Winker - OF, CIN
26% owned
Jesse Winker's breakout has been put on hold several times this season. After offseason shoulder surgery to address a lingering issue from the past few years, plenty in the fantasy industry deemed Winker as a sleeper/breakout candidate for 2019. Although the rest of the year may not be to the expected caliber of pre-season analysis, he should be more than serviceable at the top of the Reds' lineup.
Winker could be experiencing his 2nd-half breakout right now, getting a little hot over the past two weeks. With the waiver wire fairly barren this deep into the season, he's a worthwhile grab. The Reds' lineup is slightly worse without Yasiel Puig, but they seem committed to playing out the season and trying to win. Worst-comes-to-worst, drop him and move on. The cost of acquisition is low enough to not affect you at all.
Willie Calhoun - OF/DH, TEX
10% owned
Willie is officially free (for the time being). The Rangers have jerked him around between the MLB and Triple-A, but, as of now, it seems that he should be up for the rest of the year as Joey Gallo rehabs his broken hamate bone. Calhoun is an extremely talented hitter. One that *should* be a mainstay in lineups, especially for an AL squad. However, it just has not been the case up to this point for presumably his shoddy defensive capabilities.
Calhoun's slashing .295/.335/.550 in 125 major league plate appearances this season, that plays in every format. His walk rate is a tad low, but with a 20 percent strikeout rate, it's not a profile killer. He's flashed some pop with his 15 extra-base hits and shown considerable improvement from the past two years of performance with Texas. These next two months are essentially an extended prove-it period for Calhoun to start regularly next season. With the every day play-time, decent hitting talent in the lineup, and hitter-friendly home park, Calhoun is a solid grab in all leagues.
Archie Bradley - RP, ARI
45% owned
The ERA and especially WHIP on the year are disgusting, but Bradley might be the closer on a .500 team. If his strikeouts weren't great (29.5 percent K-rate), he would not be on this list. There is potential for Bradley to truly shine in the ninth-inning role. The DBacks have teased him the past few years and kept him away from it to keep his arbitration value lower, but now, it might finally be time to unleash the beard.
Bradley holds a 3.18 FIP and 3.76 xFIP, there is still good stuff here. If he could just keep the walks a little lower and get some favorable BABIP regression, he could be one of the better save options in the second half of the season. Definitely prefer him over someone like Joe Jimenez who has a similar high-K, poor ratio profile, but plays on a significantly worse team and should not see as many opportunities as Bradley.
Overvalued Players - Week 19
Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag and could even be dropped if they have not produced enough.
Justin Upton- OF, LAA
72% owned
Justin Upton is borderline droppable at this point. I doubt he can fetch anything in most leagues at the moment. With the playoffs on the horizon, you need everyone contributing at full-strength. Upton came into the year with an injury that held him out for roughly half the year and he is clearly still not in rhythm at the plate.
Although a buffer period and patience are required, it's hard to hold in crunch time when every win matters down the stretch. The Angels' offense and home park are not really strong enough selling points to need a piece that is not Trout or Ohtani. He's someone to buy back in on next season for cheap given that he will only be turning 32. Expectations will rightfully be lowered significantly given the production slide over the past three seasons.
Jose Quintana - SP, CHC
68% owned
Jose Quintana has regressed even further this season. His FIP/xFIP were below four just two years ago, but he has not been the same pitcher since. His k-rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie season and that is essentially the biggest culprit to his recent demise. A slight dip in his fastball velocity seems to be causing this and unless he can regain something above 92 on average, he's a hard sell. It is definitely too late in the season to convince any league-mates on a bounceback, but you never know. His quality start against the Brewers on Friday may just get someone to believe in him.
Honestly, if it comes down to it in playoff time, Quintana is not an unreasonable drop-candidate. He does not really do much for your ratios, nor does he amass enough strikeouts to justify butchering them. I guess he's good for wins and quality starts, but those are replaceable by a streamer. The recent addition of Nicholas Castellanos worries me even more given his defensive deficiencies matched with Kyle Schwarber's in the outfield corners. Jason Heyward is not enough of a wizard out there to make up for both of them.
The Cubs schedule is extremely favorable ROS, but even so, Quintana could struggle. I would try to trade him first, hold for a bit longer if no one bites, and then cut bait if things sour further.
