Boom or Bust that ADP

Brett Mitchell outlines his Boom/Bust ADP strategy analysis for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Whether you like to draft conservatively or take chances, balance is always important.

Last year I wrote about the seismic shift that took place amidst the RB renaissance and coined the concept #AllBenchRB. This year, I'm starting off with a new concept called #BBADP, which stands for Boom/Bust ADP.

You see, I think rankings and ADPs are limited. The range of outcomes for two players juxtaposed in ADP can vary drastically. These two said players may have landed with similar ADPs because of the consensus average from experts, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. For instance, Dalvin Cook (ADP15) has a far wider range of possible outcomes than Michael Thomas (ADP14). This is due to some players being more stable and predictable while others are more boom/bust. This carries over when we move to weekly projections.

It would be amazing if one of you techies developed a tool to rank players inclusive of these range of outcomes so that us fellow nerds could draft floors and ceilings. In the meantime, I've split these player archetypes into two sample drafts to help you understand and apply this in your own drafts.

The Boom/Bust Players

These warriors redline it every week while you curse, make excuses or boast about your fantasy prowess. In other words, these players are boom/bust due to performance, injury and/or opportunity. Draft these players for a wild ride. Why is it important? If your team consistently fails to achieve those flashy scores you envy, especially in the playoffs, it’s probably time to take some chances. If your tendency is to draft the more consistent player type, you could benefit from going out of your comfort zone with some of these players.

The Boom/Bust Draft

Based on 12-team leagues with some variance for Standard/Half PPR/PPR

Rd 1:  Saquon Barkley
Rd 2:  Mike Evans/Jerick McKinnon/AJ Green
Rd 3:  T.Y. Hilton/Stefon Diggs/Josh Gordon
Rd 4:  Amari Cooper/Deshaun Watson
Rd 5:  Dion Lewis/Sony Michel/Royce Freeman
Rd 6:  Corey Davis/Ronald Jones II
Rd 7:  Will Fuller/Marlon Mack
Rd 8:  Carlos Hyde/Marquise Goodwin/Tarik Cohen, Randall Cobb
Rd 9:  Andrew Luck/Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams
Rd 10:  Corey Clement/Jamison Crowder/Martavis Bryant
Rd 11:  Jack Doyle/Patrick Mahomes/Mike Williams
Rd 12:  George Kittle/Jameis Winston
Rd 13:  Tyler Lockett/David Njoku/Cameron Meredith
Rd 14:  Eli Manning/Dede Westbrook/Kenny Golladay

The Stable Players

These players tend to be older, less explosive and/or they find themselves in consistent situations with less volatility. They provide value in the draft because they aren’t as sexy and in turn fall lower in ADP. I have failed to draft these players and it has hurt my success at times with wide-ranging scores come playoffs. Take advantage of your adrenaline junkie friends come draft time and go stable and consistent.

The Stable Draft

Based on 12 Team with some variance for Standard/Half PPR/PPR

Rd 1:   Antonio Brown/Le'Veon Bell/Odell Beckham Jr
Rd 2:  Jordan Howard/Devonta Freeman/Michael Thomas
Rd 3:  Doug Baldwin
Rd 4:  Alshon Jeffery
Rd 5:  Larry Fitzgerald/Demaryius Thomas/Marvin Jones
Rd 6:  Chris Hogan/Golden Tate/Marshawn Lynch/Michael Crabtree
Rd 7:  Devin Funchess/Kyle Rudolph/Delanie Walker
Rd 8:  Isaiah Crowell/Emmanuel Sanders
Rd 9:  Robert WoodsAllen Hurns/Matthew Stafford
Rd 10:  Cooper Kupp/Philip Rivers
Rd 11:  Sterling Shepard/Marqise Lee
Rd 12:  Rishard Matthews
Rd 13:  Frank Gore
Rd 14:  Jordan Matthews

The first step to recovery is acceptance. If you are drafting heavily one way or another it is time to face the music and balance that sh*t out. We all have “our guys” or archetypes and they can be an enormous hindrance to our success. So, if you are the living on the edge type, grab some Doug Baldwin to calm your nerves.  And if you are risk averse, click on Saquon mid-first round for some much-needed adventure.

Holler at me @BrettMitchellFB on Twitter to tell me what you think.

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