MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/9/2025)

September 9, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/9/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Harrison Bader, Ian Happ, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Ramon Laureano.

We have 15 games this Tuesday in MLB. What better day for a home run article than "Dinger Tuesday?" With the NFL season full steam ahead, we finally have a break in the games, and what better thing to bet out with all that NFL money you won this weekend from RotoBaller content than some home runs?

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/9/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, September 9:

• Harrison Bader, Philadelphia Phillies
• Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
• Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
• Ramon Laureano, San Diego Padres

Harrison Bader OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)

We are going to start our home run card in a game that will take place in Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park between the Phillies and the Mets. Sean Manaea will square off against Ranger Suarez in a game that will have two southpaws toeing the rubber.

Sean Manaea has struggled with the long ball as of late, and he will be a target of ours here tonight in this spot. Over the last thirty days, Manaea has surrendered a 2.05 HR/9, 37.7% FB, and a 38.7% Hard Hit. Right-handed hitters have gotten to Manaea in 2025. He has allowed a .486 SLG, .221 ISO, 11.8% Brl, 44.1% Hard Hit, and eight home runs to the split.

The Phillies' power bats tend to hit from the left-hand side of the plate with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, but the righty in this lineup with the most home runs is actually Harrison Bader. Bader has a .451 SLG and 15 long balls in 2025.

He also hits left-handed pitching very well. He is slashing .224/.300/.388 with an .688 OPS and five home runs this season against southpaws. He is also red hot and is hitting for power. He has a .568 SLG and a .243 ISO over the last ten days.

Manaea has allowed six of his home runs off his four-seam fastball. He has allowed a .549 SLG and a .253 ISO to right-hand bats off that pitch in 2025. Bader has a .413 SLG, .173 ISO, and nine extra base hits, including two home runs off four-seam fastballs from lefties in 2025.

Bader is not our usual power bat that we attack for home runs, but I love this spot for him to leave the yard at Citizens Bank tonight.

Ian Happ OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel)

Our second bet of the night comes from Atlanta between the Cubs and the Braves. Spencer Strider has struggled mightily coming off his Tommy John surgery last season. Command is always a problem the first year back from Tommy John, and that is what is happening here.

Strider has allowed a 1.60 HR/9, 38.9% FB, and a 36.3% Hard Hit in 2025. Over the last thirty days, he has allowed a 2.84 HR/9, 36.2% FB, and 38.0% Hard Hit. Strider has allowed 18 home runs in 2025. Lefties have hit ten of those home runs, and he has allowed a .475 SLG, .218 ISO, 10.5% Brl, and a 40.5% Hard Hit against the split.

Ian Happ is red hot at the moment. Over the last ten days, Happ is slashing .763/.467/.763 with a 1.230 OPS. He has a .395 ISO and four home runs during that span. Happ has a 48.4% Pull and a 58.1% Hard Hit during that span. Dansby Swanson is also red hot, so he is another player I was considering in this spot.

Ian Happ this season:
.239/.342/.415 — .757 OPS
20 HR | 79 R | 66 RBI | 2.2 WAR

He also holds a 115 wRC+ and overall has been a valuable piece of this Cubs team.

pic.twitter.com/TvSbrMx5Jb

— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) September 6, 2025

Happ has a good history in a small sample size against Strider. In three at-bats, he is slashing .667/.667/1.667 with a 2.333 OPS and a home run. Take out the name value of Strider, and this spot is a no-brainer.

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Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 FanDuel)

Our last two home run bets will come in the same game and the same matchup. The Padres will host the Reds in game two of their series, and Zack Littell will toe the rubber for the Reds.

Littell leads MLB in home runs allowed with 34 long balls in 2025. He is officially the home run king and a guy I love to attack whenever he pitches. The odds in these spots are great as well because of this game being played in PETCO Park, a ballpark not known for allowing a ton of home runs.

Littell has given up equal splits to both sides of the plate, but righties have him slightly better. He has allowed 20 home runs against right-handed hitters in 2025 and a .481 SLG, .220 ISO, 13.3% Brl, and a 39.2% Hard Hit.

Tatis Jr. is starting to heat up after not hitting a home run for over a month. Over the last ten days, he has two home runs and is slashing .256/.326/.436 with a .761 OPS. He has 17 home runs, a .473 SLG, and a .193 ISO in 2025 against right-hand pitching.

Forgot to post this yesterday, BUT:

Fernando Tatis Jr is 3-DRS away from joining Barry Bonds, Mookie Betts and AnDruw Jones as the only players in MLB history to have multiple 20-HR/20-SB/20-DRS seasons pic.twitter.com/3U5P4S5Aqj

— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) September 7, 2025

Littell has allowed power on several pitches this season, but he throws his slider the most of any pitch, and that is the pitch that he has given up the most power on. Against right-handed hitters, his slider has a .543 SLG, .248 ISO, and seven home runs against it. He has allowed a .636 SLG, .303 ISO, and five home runs against his sinker and a .439 SLG, .212 ISO, and four home runs against his four-seamer.

Tatis is elite against all three of these pitches and is the main reason I love him in this match-up. In 2025, against right-hand pitching, Tatis has a .471 SLG, .257 ISO, and five home runs against sliders, .543 SLG, .162 ISO, and three home runs against sinkers, and a .533 SLG, .211 ISO, and four home runs against four-seamers.

Tatis and his teammate, who we will talk about next, are both going deep at PETCO tonight.

Ramon Laureano OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel)

Ramon Lauerano is the teammate I was referring to above. Lauerano has been one of the most underrated bats this season and a massive addition for this Padres team.

Lauerano has hit 23 home runs in 2025 between his tenure with the Padres and the Orioles. He has crushed right-handed pitching in 2025, slashing .303/.360/.540 with a .900 OPS and 14 home runs. He is red hot over the last ten days, slashing .300/.349/.500 with two home runs in the previous ten days.

We spoke earlier about how elite Tatis was against the pitch mic of Littell, and Lauerano also sticks out like a sore thumb. Laureano has a .789 SLG, .395 ISO, and three home runs against the slider, .485 SLG, .250 ISO, and five home runs against the four seamer, and a .583 SLG, .217 ISO, and three home runs against the sinker.

I love this spot for both of these guys to leave the yard and will be looking for a same game parlay boost to hammer this spot for the Padres, Tatis Jr., and Laureano.

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