X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/21/2025)

Fernando Tatis Jr. - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/21/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Fernando Tatis Jr, and more.

We've got a full slate of MLB action on Monday, allowing us several opportunities to find spots to choose from for home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Fernando Tatis Jr., Brent Rooker, and Adolis Garcia. Some of these hitters have been elite all year, while others have started to heat up. Each slugger has elite power or a favorable matchup.

The process behind choosing home run props involves several important variables, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on WednesdayMay 212025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/21/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, May 21:

  • Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
  • Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
  • Brent Rooker, Athletics
  • Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers (+500)

Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+215 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ohtani is currently slashing .311/.405/.668 with 17 home runs in 222 plate appearances, picking up right where he left off last year when he won the NL MVP. The Dodgers' superstar has homered five times in his last seven games.

According to Baseball Savant, the batted ball metrics look elite as usual for Ohtani, featuring a 23.6% barrel rate, which ranks in the 100th percentile.

This is an exploitable matchup against Diamondbacks' righty Corbin Burnes, who currently has a 4.29 xERA, giving up an 8.9% barrel rate, which ranks in the 42nd percentile.

We've also seen Burnes perform a bit worse against lefties, as highlighted by a 4.21 xFIP (3.72 xFIP against righties).

Ohtani has succeeded against Burnes, including one home run and a .519 xwOBA in eight career plate appearances.

While you always have to pay up to get to Ohtani, I'm willing to take the plunge at (+215) odds because of how well he's been swinging the bat lately.

Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+255 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Olson carries a .240/.351/.457 slash with 10 home runs in 208 plate appearances, which is an underwhelming start to the year by his standards. But the veteran first baseman deserves better results, as highlighted by a .538 expected slugging percentage.

We've seen Olson hit the ball hard so far, featuring an 18.3% barrel rate that ranks in the 96th percentile.

Up next is a matchup vs Nationals' righty Trevor Williams, who has been crushed by lefties this year, featuring a .433 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9.

That's bad against a perennial 35+ home run power hitter like Olson.

The Braves' slugger has one home run and a .417 xwOBA in 13 career plate appearances against Williams, so he's been able to get to him sometimes.

We should also note that Olson is heating up lately, homering three times in his last four games. With that in mind, we'll take a shot that Olson keeps it rolling at (+255) odds.

Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tatis Jr. has a .303/.372/.554 slash with 12 home runs in 196 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, such as a 15.1% barrel rate (88th percentile).

The Padres' superstar has homered four times in his last nine games, so he's coming in hot.

You must like the matchup against Blue Jays' righty Kevin Gausman, who has a 4.37 xERA and 1.24 HR/9 in 51 innings this year.

While Gausman is a bit tougher on righties, Tatis has succeeded against him, putting up two home runs with a .493 xwOBA in 18 career plate appearances.

With how Tatis is swinging the ball lately, you have to like his chances of going yard against a pitcher he's performed well against.

We're getting a bit of an expensive price at (+285) odds, but that's expected when you're targeting one of the best hitters in baseball. Ride with Tatis to hit his 13th homer of the season tonight.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Rooker is slashing .241/.308/.441 with 10 home runs in 214 plate appearances. This hitter has 30 and 39 homers in his last two seasons, so there's a track record here. The veteran comes into Wednesday's action with zero homers in his last nine games, but this feels like a good spot for him.

For one, this game is at Sutter Health Park, which has quickly become one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. Rooker has enjoyed playing here, registering a 140 wRC+ and .230 ISO at home compared to 91 wRC+ and .176 ISO on the road.

Next, this is a great matchup against Angels' righty Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 4.58 xERA and 1.27 HR/9 in 49.2 innings this season. This pitcher has consistently allowed hitters to generate solid contact against him, as highlighted by a 48.4% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 10th percentile.

We have a small sample size of Rooker vs. Kochanowicz, but it looks good. Rooker has one homer and a 1.236 xwOBA in two career plate appearances.

Despite Rooker's slow start to the season, we can consider this a good spot to target the A's slugger.

Even at a bit of an expensive price at (+360) odds, it still looks appealing because of Rooker's recent track record along with park factor and matchup.

Adolis Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The last home run prop on this page focuses on Rangers' slugger Adolis Garcia, who is slashing .222/.271/.386 with six homers in 188 plate appearances.

Despite this underwhelming line, we're targeting Garcia because of his strong performance against tonight's pitcher, lefty Ryan Yarbrough. This includes one homer and a .442 xwOBA in nine career plate appearances.

We know that Garcia has succeeded against left-handed pitching, as highlighted by a .199 ISO against them throughout his career.

You also have to like the batted ball metrics, which include a 14.8% barrel rate, which ranks in the 86th percentile.

Playing in a hitter-friendly environment like Yankee Stadium also helps Garcia's case tonight.

While the veteran has homered only once in his last 12 games, this looks like the right spot to take a shot on him to slug his seventh big fly of the season.

We're getting an appealing price of (+500) odds at DraftKings, especially when you consider that this is a hitter who put up 39 home runs back in the 2023 season. Let's ride with Garcia to go yard in this spot against Yarbrough.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Francisco Alvarez

Needs Thumb Surgery, May Play Through Injury
Willy Adames

Out With Side Soreness on Tuesday
A.J. Brown

on Track to Play in Week 1
Jacob deGrom

Being Skipped in Rotation Due to Shoulder Fatigue
Adley Rutschman

Scratched on Tuesday With Abdominal Discomfort
CBJ

Brendan Smith Joins Blue Jackets on Tryout Deal
STL

Milan Lucic Joins Blues for Tryout
DET

Red Wings Pick Up Travis Hamonic
Austin Riley

Doesn't Appear Ready to Return Any Time Soon
Aaron Judge

Unikely to Throw Normally Again This Year
Jalen McMillan

Could be Out Through Week 9 Bye
Indiana Pacers

Pacers Coach Rick Carlisle Agrees to a Multiyear Contract Extension on Tuesday
Washington Wizards

John Wall Retires After 11 NBA Seasons
Daniel Jones

Named as Colts Starting Quarterback
Jalen McMillan

Will Not Be Ready for Season Opener
Collin Sexton

Hornets Have High Hopes for Collin Sexton
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Start Season Without Contract Extension
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Hopes to Bounce Back in 2025-26
Stephen Curry

Ready to Go for New Season
Orlando Magic

Lester Quinones Agrees to Deal With Magic
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Cleared to Play on Tuesday Night
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Pulled With Hamstring Tightness
MLB

Game 2 of Brewers-Cubs on Monday Postponed
Bryce Miller

to be Activated on Tuesday
Kyle Tucker

to Get Multiple Days Off
Shane Bieber

to Make Season Debut on Friday
Joe Mixon

Could Start Season on NFI List
Zack Wheeler

has Surgery to Remove Blood Clot
De'Von Achane

Unlikely to Practice This Week
Justin Jefferson

Returning to Practice
Chris Godwin

Bucs Chris Godwin Likely to Start Season on PUP List
Joe Flacco

Browns Name Joe Flacco as Their Week 1 Starter
Jalen McDaniels

Inks Deal With New Orleans
N'Faly Dante

Signs Deal With Hawks
Matthew Stafford

Practicing on Monday
Dru Smith

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Austin Dillon

Scores an Upset Victory at Richmond
William Byron

Clinches the Regular Season Championship Title at Richmond
Denny Hamlin

Pit-Road Struggles Impede Denny Hamlin's Chances of a Top Finish at Richmond
Joey Logano

Earns A Fourth-Place Finish at Richmond
Kyle Larson

Rallies to A Top-10 Finish at Richmond
Malik Nabers

Dealing With Back Injury
Khamzat Chimaev

Is The New UFC Middleweight Champion
Dricus Du Plessis

Gets Dominated At UFC 319
Aaron Pico

Suffers Knockout Loss In His UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Scores Stunning First-Round Knockout
Leodalis De Vries

Earns Promotion to Double-A
Nathaniel Lowe

Finalizing Deal with Boston
Geoff Neal

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Ketel Marte

Arizona Could Trade Ketel Marte in the Offseason
Carlos Prates

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Page

Dominates At UFC 319
Jared Cannonier

Gets Outclassed
Tim Elliott

Gets Submission Win
Kai Asakura

Still Winless In The UFC
Austin Cindric

has Arguably his Best Run of the Season at Richmond
Ryan Blaney

Contends for First Richmond Win but Comes Up Short
Alex Bowman

Finishes Second but Loses Ground in Playoffs
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Sets Personal Laps-Led Record at Richmond
Chris Buescher

Falls Out of Playoffs After Miserable Richmond Run
Coby White

Bulls Not Interested in Trading Coby White
Dereck Lively II

Expected to be Ready for Camp
Brian Robinson Jr.

Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.
John Metchie III

Texans Trade John Metchie III to Eagles
Victor Scott II

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Listening to Trade Offers for Trey Hendrickson
Marcelo Mayer

to Have Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
Samuel Basallo

Called Up From Triple-A Norfolk
J.K. Dobbins

Expected to Win Starting RB Job?
Quentin Johnston

Suffers Concussion in Preseason Loss
Jaxson Dart

Plays Well on Saturday Night
Marcus Semien

Avoids Serious Injury
Kyle Stowers

Heads to Injured List With Left-Side Strain
Zack Wheeler

Placed on Injured List With Blood Clot in Shoulder
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Optimistic Terry McLaurin Deal Can Get Done Soon
De'Von Achane

De’Von Achane Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Likely Avoids Serious Injury
Denny Hamlin

the Heavy Favorite to Win at Richmond
Christopher Bell

Has Been Great at Richmond
Tyrese Haliburton

No Longer Using a Scooter, Crutches
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Finally Break Through at Richmond?
Joey Logano

Will Start Last at Richmond After Practice Trouble
Chase Elliott

Lack of Top-Line Speed Hurts his DFS Potential
Kyle Larson

Recent String of Crashes Make Him a Big Risk at Richmond
William Byron

Probably Slightly Too Inconsistent at Richmond to Start for DFS
Ryan Preece

on Pole at Richmond as Playoff Deadline Looms Closer
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best RFK Racing DFS Option at Richmond
Chase Briscoe

Still Figuring Out Richmond
Chris Buescher

a Solid Choice for DFS Play, but Teammates Look Faster
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Activate Terry McLaurin From PUP List
Rashee Rice

NFL Could Reach Settlement Before Hearing
Haywood Highsmith

Dealt to Brooklyn on Friday
Amir Coffey

Signs One-Year Deal With Bucks
Khamzat Chimaev

A Favorite At UFC 319
Dricus Du Plessis

Set For His Third Title Defense
Aaron Pico

Set For UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Geoff Neal

Looks For His Second Win In A Row
Michael Page

Set For His Second Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kai Asakura

Looks For His First UFC Win
Tim Elliott

Set To Open Up UFC 309 Main Card
CBJ

Mikael Pyyhtia Re-Signs With Blue Jackets for One Year
UTA

Caleb Desnoyers Expected to Miss 12 Weeks After Wrist Procedure
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Be Healthy for Season Opener
NHL

Olivier Rodrigue Signs KHL Deal
NHL

Emil Bemstrom to Join Swiss Team
Payton Pritchard

Reportedly Moving Into Starting Lineup
Kevin Durant

Rockets Not Interested in Keeping Kevin Durant with Max Extension
NBA

Isaiah Mobley Joins Turkish Team
NBA

Cole Swider Links Up with EuroLeague Powerhouse

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP