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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/21/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Fernando Tatis Jr, and more.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Monday, allowing us several opportunities to find spots to choose from for home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Fernando Tatis Jr., Brent Rooker, and Adolis Garcia. Some of these hitters have been elite all year, while others have started to heat up. Each slugger has elite power or a favorable matchup.
The process behind choosing home run props involves several important variables, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/21/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, May 21:
- Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
- Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
- Brent Rooker, Athletics
- Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers (+500)
Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+215 DraftKings Sportsbook)
17 for 17
Shohei Ohtani's Major League-leading 17th home run of the year! pic.twitter.com/2a5pmgTaJ3
— MLB (@MLB) May 20, 2025
Ohtani is currently slashing .311/.405/.668 with 17 home runs in 222 plate appearances, picking up right where he left off last year when he won the NL MVP. The Dodgers' superstar has homered five times in his last seven games.
According to Baseball Savant, the batted ball metrics look elite as usual for Ohtani, featuring a 23.6% barrel rate, which ranks in the 100th percentile.
This is an exploitable matchup against Diamondbacks' righty Corbin Burnes, who currently has a 4.29 xERA, giving up an 8.9% barrel rate, which ranks in the 42nd percentile.
We've also seen Burnes perform a bit worse against lefties, as highlighted by a 4.21 xFIP (3.72 xFIP against righties).
Ohtani has succeeded against Burnes, including one home run and a .519 xwOBA in eight career plate appearances.
While you always have to pay up to get to Ohtani, I'm willing to take the plunge at (+215) odds because of how well he's been swinging the bat lately.
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+255 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matt Olson's last 4 games:
8-for-13
3 HR
2 2B
5 RBIHeating up in a big way. pic.twitter.com/XLLoo0hRVa
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 20, 2025
Olson carries a .240/.351/.457 slash with 10 home runs in 208 plate appearances, which is an underwhelming start to the year by his standards. But the veteran first baseman deserves better results, as highlighted by a .538 expected slugging percentage.
We've seen Olson hit the ball hard so far, featuring an 18.3% barrel rate that ranks in the 96th percentile.
Up next is a matchup vs Nationals' righty Trevor Williams, who has been crushed by lefties this year, featuring a .433 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9.
That's bad against a perennial 35+ home run power hitter like Olson.
The Braves' slugger has one home run and a .417 xwOBA in 13 career plate appearances against Williams, so he's been able to get to him sometimes.
We should also note that Olson is heating up lately, homering three times in his last four games. With that in mind, we'll take a shot that Olson keeps it rolling at (+255) odds.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings Sportsbook)
You knew the bat flip was going to be legendary for Fernando Tatis Jr.'s first career #walkoff homer! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/HGhYZYSRWl
— MLB (@MLB) May 14, 2025
Tatis Jr. has a .303/.372/.554 slash with 12 home runs in 196 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, such as a 15.1% barrel rate (88th percentile).
The Padres' superstar has homered four times in his last nine games, so he's coming in hot.
You must like the matchup against Blue Jays' righty Kevin Gausman, who has a 4.37 xERA and 1.24 HR/9 in 51 innings this year.
While Gausman is a bit tougher on righties, Tatis has succeeded against him, putting up two home runs with a .493 xwOBA in 18 career plate appearances.
With how Tatis is swinging the ball lately, you have to like his chances of going yard against a pitcher he's performed well against.
We're getting a bit of an expensive price at (+285) odds, but that's expected when you're targeting one of the best hitters in baseball. Ride with Tatis to hit his 13th homer of the season tonight.
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Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brent Rooker pounds a 3-run shot 💪 pic.twitter.com/zyXdtqeoqV
— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2025
Rooker is slashing .241/.308/.441 with 10 home runs in 214 plate appearances. This hitter has 30 and 39 homers in his last two seasons, so there's a track record here. The veteran comes into Wednesday's action with zero homers in his last nine games, but this feels like a good spot for him.
For one, this game is at Sutter Health Park, which has quickly become one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. Rooker has enjoyed playing here, registering a 140 wRC+ and .230 ISO at home compared to 91 wRC+ and .176 ISO on the road.
Next, this is a great matchup against Angels' righty Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 4.58 xERA and 1.27 HR/9 in 49.2 innings this season. This pitcher has consistently allowed hitters to generate solid contact against him, as highlighted by a 48.4% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 10th percentile.
We have a small sample size of Rooker vs. Kochanowicz, but it looks good. Rooker has one homer and a 1.236 xwOBA in two career plate appearances.
Despite Rooker's slow start to the season, we can consider this a good spot to target the A's slugger.
Even at a bit of an expensive price at (+360) odds, it still looks appealing because of Rooker's recent track record along with park factor and matchup.
Adolis Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adolis García BARELY kept this home run fair 😳 pic.twitter.com/rIyCzzZqNu
— MLB (@MLB) May 7, 2025
The last home run prop on this page focuses on Rangers' slugger Adolis Garcia, who is slashing .222/.271/.386 with six homers in 188 plate appearances.
Despite this underwhelming line, we're targeting Garcia because of his strong performance against tonight's pitcher, lefty Ryan Yarbrough. This includes one homer and a .442 xwOBA in nine career plate appearances.
We know that Garcia has succeeded against left-handed pitching, as highlighted by a .199 ISO against them throughout his career.
You also have to like the batted ball metrics, which include a 14.8% barrel rate, which ranks in the 86th percentile.
Playing in a hitter-friendly environment like Yankee Stadium also helps Garcia's case tonight.
While the veteran has homered only once in his last 12 games, this looks like the right spot to take a shot on him to slug his seventh big fly of the season.
We're getting an appealing price of (+500) odds at DraftKings, especially when you consider that this is a hitter who put up 39 home runs back in the 2023 season. Let's ride with Garcia to go yard in this spot against Yarbrough.
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