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Jarod Rupp breaks down some fantasy baseball pitchers who had uncharacteristically poor seasons in 2023 that will have a reversal of fortunes in 2024.
Fantasy baseball managers drafted these pitchers in 2023 expecting them to deliver results, however, they underperformed expectations relative to their ADP.
Due to their underwhelming seasons, scorned managers will cast them aside, avoiding them in drafts. As a result, they will see a discount in ADP going into 2024, but with bounce-back campaigns in order, they should produce positive ROI for managers willing to roster them.
Also, keep an eye out for our "Hitters Who Will Rebound in 2024" article, or check out "3 Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Who Broke Out in 2023."
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Starting Pitchers Who Will Bounce Back in 2024
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Back in 2023, Dylan Cease was the fifth pitcher coming off fantasy draft boards, ahead of names like Spencer Strider, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler, and Zac Gallen. This of course was due to his sparkling 2022 season in which he posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 227 K in 184 IP, and a 14-8 record en route to a second-place finish for the AL Cy Young Award.
The results did not meet expectations though, and Cease produced a subpar 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP to go along with a 7-9 record. On the surface, it looks like some basic stats were little changed from year to year, with BB, K, and HR being fairly consistent between 2021 and 2023:
Looking closer, however, some numbers do start to stand out. Cease allowed 46 more hits in seven fewer innings in '23 than he did in '22. The increase in contact caused BAA and WHIP to spike, leading to the higher ERA.
Sifting through the data a bit more, it seems an increased usage in his fastball and a decreased usage in slider may have been partly to blame. When you see that both pitches were a full mph slower in '23, you can start to put the puzzle together as to what caused Cease's drop in effectiveness:
As seen above, his slider had above-average vertical movement in '22 but slightly below average in '23, and slightly below-average horizontal movement in '22 but quite a bit less than average in '23. All this paints a picture of a less effective pitch, and the jump from .128 opponent batting average to .216 solidifies the theory.
Despite the drop in velocity and increased BAA for all of his pitches, Cease was still able to average more than a K per IP in 2023, so expect him to strike batters out at a high rate again in 2024. Additionally, his peripheral stats, such as BABIP, xFIP, and SIERA, all pointed to a season that perhaps should have been better than the actual results.
So, with some offseason mechanical adjustments, will he return to Cy Young contender? More than likely not, but coming off the board as the 30th pitcher overall or even later (after names like Bobby Miller, Joe Ryan, Kyle Bradish, et al), he's sure to outproduce his ADP. Furthermore, if he lands in a more favorable environment than Chicago, say Atlanta, then he'll be able to rack up more W's for himself and managers that draft him.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Drafted by the Reds with the second overall pick in 2017, Hunter Greene is expected to be a workhorse in the front end of the rotation for years to come. The 6'5", 242-pound right-hander is built more like a tight end, but his powerful frame allows him to throw a fastball that had an average speed in 2023 of 98.3 mph, which puts him in the 97th percentile of all MLB pitchers. In 2022, Greene fared about as well as one would expect for an MLB rookie, but instead of progressing, his numbers took a bit of a step back in 2023:
Greene ended 2022 on a high note, compiling the following stats over his final six starts:
- 35.1 IP, 22 H, 4 ER, 8 BB: 51 K, 1.01 ERA, 0.85 WHIP
He flashed similar dominance in 2023, but every time he started to go on a roll, he'd struggle mightily for a few starts before finally finding a groove again, only for the process to start over again:
He also missed two months with a hip injury, so some rust could explain the big spike in August. Without those two poor outings, his overall numbers actually would have looked more in line or slightly better than his 2022 season, with a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
Assuming good health in 2024, that is what should give managers hope. The elite K% is there (~22% league avg., Greene's is ~31%) and the elite K-BB% is there (~14% league avg., Greene's is ~21%). He pitches for a team that has a young, dynamic offense on an upswing, so he should be in a position to better his win total as well. Greene is being drafted around the 35th pitcher off the board, but could easily return value there.
Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
With 2023 being his first season in the majors, it might be a bit harsh to say it was a season to forget, but being the top pitching prospect in the O's organization and in all of baseball coming into the year, expectations were high for Grayson Rodriguez.
His first three starts of the season had mixed results, throwing a total of 14.1 innings, allowing 11 ER (6.91 ERA) but striking out 19 batters while walking seven. The next two starts were impressive, albeit against a toothless Detroit lineup, allowing seven hits and zero earned runs over 10 IP with a 4:15 BB:K. The ERA dropped to 4.07 and it seemed he was off to the races, but that's when the wheels began to fall off.
After his third brutal start in five May games, Rodriguez was sent down to Triple-A. Thankfully, after seven starts in the minors, he was able to get back to form and the Orioles recalled him in mid-July. The rest of the season was pretty sensational:
It was pretty sensational, that is, right up until it abruptly ended with a thud on October 8. In Game 2 of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers, Rodriguez lasted just 1.2 innings before being relieved, but not before the damage was done. He allowed five ER on six H, four BB, and two K, dropping the O's into a 2-0 hole in the best-of-five series. After pitching so well in the second half, that is obviously not how Grayson and the O's wanted the season to end. So, all things considered, you could say it was a season to forget.
Looking at his current ADP of around 21st pitcher overall, he seems fairly priced; however, a pitcher with his pedigree and environment could certainly outperform expectations on his way to returning positive ROI to fantasy managers.
Relief Pitcher Who Will Bounce Back in 2024
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Unfortunately, it was an injury Edwin Diaz sustained that made his 2023 season forgettable, as the season was over before it even started. Having happened in March during the World Baseball Classic while celebrating a win made it that much harder to swallow.
As there wasn't a 2023 to look back on, we'll take a look at his 2021 and 2022 seasons:
Just look at that 2022 season. Those are some outstanding stats, especially the highlighted ones. Lingering effects of the injury may give managers pause in early 2024 drafts, and if so, managers should scoop him up at the earliest (reasonable) opportunity. Even if his 2024 numbers land somewhere in between his last two seasons, Diaz will provide plenty of save opportunities, plus low ERA, WHIP, AVG, and OBP, along with high Ks. Draft with confidence.
Honorable Mentions
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
Sale finished strong in 2023, seeing him give up one run or fewer in four of five September starts. His BB:K was 8:29 in those five starts. He's battled injuries the last few seasons and he's not getting any younger (34), but a healthy Sale can provide plenty of fantasy production.
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers selected Mize #1 overall in 2018 and he had a pretty good 2021 season in the bigs, but made just two starts in 2022 before needing Tommy John surgery. It'll be nearly two years removed from the surgery so he should be ready to go in 2024. Keep him on your radar.
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
As with Mize, Buehler is recovering from TJ surgery but was close to returning in 2023, so he too should be ready to go in 2024. Buehler has twice been an All-Star and came in fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021.
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays
Manoah was an All-Star and finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, but a tumultuous 2023 saw him demoted, only to be brought back up and demoted again late in the season. If he can return to form, he could be a value pick in drafts.
Others to keep an eye on:
Keep tabs on these players, as all have provided valuable fantasy seasons in the past and have the tools to do so again in 2024: Lucas Giolito, Free Agent; Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees; Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins; Jack Flaherty, Free Agent.
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