X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

A Year to Forget: Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Who Will Rebound in 2024

Dylan-Cease-daily-fantasy-baseball-rankings-outfield-draft-targets-MLB-DFS-lineup-picks-icon (2)

Jarod Rupp breaks down some fantasy baseball pitchers who had uncharacteristically poor seasons in 2023 that will have a reversal of fortunes in 2024.

Fantasy baseball managers drafted these pitchers in 2023 expecting them to deliver results, however, they underperformed expectations relative to their ADP.

Due to their underwhelming seasons, scorned managers will cast them aside, avoiding them in drafts. As a result, they will see a discount in ADP going into 2024, but with bounce-back campaigns in order, they should produce positive ROI for managers willing to roster them.

Also, keep an eye out for our "Hitters Who Will Rebound in 2024" article, or check out "3 Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Who Broke Out in 2023."

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Starting Pitchers Who Will Bounce Back in 2024

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

Back in 2023, Dylan Cease was the fifth pitcher coming off fantasy draft boards, ahead of names like Spencer Strider, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler, and Zac Gallen. This of course was due to his sparkling 2022 season in which he posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 227 K in 184 IP, and a 14-8 record en route to a second-place finish for the AL Cy Young Award.

The results did not meet expectations though, and Cease produced a subpar 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP to go along with a 7-9 record. On the surface, it looks like some basic stats were little changed from year to year, with BB, K, and HR being fairly consistent between 2021 and 2023:

Looking closer, however, some numbers do start to stand out. Cease allowed 46 more hits in seven fewer innings in '23 than he did in '22. The increase in contact caused BAA and WHIP to spike, leading to the higher ERA.

Sifting through the data a bit more, it seems an increased usage in his fastball and a decreased usage in slider may have been partly to blame. When you see that both pitches were a full mph slower in '23, you can start to put the puzzle together as to what caused Cease's drop in effectiveness:

As seen above, his slider had above-average vertical movement in '22 but slightly below average in '23, and slightly below-average horizontal movement in '22 but quite a bit less than average in '23. All this paints a picture of a less effective pitch, and the jump from .128 opponent batting average to .216 solidifies the theory.

Despite the drop in velocity and increased BAA for all of his pitches, Cease was still able to average more than a K per IP in 2023, so expect him to strike batters out at a high rate again in 2024. Additionally, his peripheral stats, such as BABIP, xFIP, and SIERA, all pointed to a season that perhaps should have been better than the actual results.

So, with some offseason mechanical adjustments, will he return to Cy Young contender? More than likely not, but coming off the board as the 30th pitcher overall or even later (after names like Bobby Miller, Joe Ryan, Kyle Bradish, et al), he's sure to outproduce his ADP. Furthermore, if he lands in a more favorable environment than Chicago, say Atlanta, then he'll be able to rack up more W's for himself and managers that draft him.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Drafted by the Reds with the second overall pick in 2017, Hunter Greene is expected to be a workhorse in the front end of the rotation for years to come. The 6'5", 242-pound right-hander is built more like a tight end, but his powerful frame allows him to throw a fastball that had an average speed in 2023 of 98.3 mph, which puts him in the 97th percentile of all MLB pitchers. In 2022, Greene fared about as well as one would expect for an MLB rookie, but instead of progressing, his numbers took a bit of a step back in 2023:

Greene ended 2022 on a high note, compiling the following stats over his final six starts:

  • 35.1 IP, 22 H, 4 ER, 8 BB: 51 K, 1.01 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

He flashed similar dominance in 2023, but every time he started to go on a roll, he'd struggle mightily for a few starts before finally finding a groove again, only for the process to start over again:

He also missed two months with a hip injury, so some rust could explain the big spike in August. Without those two poor outings, his overall numbers actually would have looked more in line or slightly better than his 2022 season, with a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Assuming good health in 2024, that is what should give managers hope. The elite K% is there (~22% league avg., Greene's is ~31%) and the elite K-BB% is there (~14% league avg., Greene's is ~21%). He pitches for a team that has a young, dynamic offense on an upswing, so he should be in a position to better his win total as well. Greene is being drafted around the 35th pitcher off the board, but could easily return value there.

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles

With 2023 being his first season in the majors, it might be a bit harsh to say it was a season to forget, but being the top pitching prospect in the O's organization and in all of baseball coming into the year, expectations were high for Grayson Rodriguez.

His first three starts of the season had mixed results, throwing a total of 14.1 innings, allowing 11 ER (6.91 ERA) but striking out 19 batters while walking seven. The next two starts were impressive, albeit against a toothless Detroit lineup, allowing seven hits and zero earned runs over 10 IP with a 4:15 BB:K. The ERA dropped to 4.07 and it seemed he was off to the races, but that's when the wheels began to fall off.

After his third brutal start in five May games, Rodriguez was sent down to Triple-A. Thankfully, after seven starts in the minors, he was able to get back to form and the Orioles recalled him in mid-July. The rest of the season was pretty sensational:

It was pretty sensational, that is, right up until it abruptly ended with a thud on October 8. In Game 2 of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers, Rodriguez lasted just 1.2 innings before being relieved, but not before the damage was done. He allowed five ER on six H, four BB, and two K, dropping the O's into a 2-0 hole in the best-of-five series. After pitching so well in the second half, that is obviously not how Grayson and the O's wanted the season to end. So, all things considered, you could say it was a season to forget.

Looking at his current ADP of around 21st pitcher overall, he seems fairly priced; however, a pitcher with his pedigree and environment could certainly outperform expectations on his way to returning positive ROI to fantasy managers.

 

Relief Pitcher Who Will Bounce Back in 2024

Edwin Diaz, New York Mets

Unfortunately, it was an injury Edwin Diaz sustained that made his 2023 season forgettable, as the season was over before it even started. Having happened in March during the World Baseball Classic while celebrating a win made it that much harder to swallow.

As there wasn't a 2023 to look back on, we'll take a look at his 2021 and 2022 seasons:

Just look at that 2022 season. Those are some outstanding stats, especially the highlighted ones. Lingering effects of the injury may give managers pause in early 2024 drafts, and if so, managers should scoop him up at the earliest (reasonable) opportunity. Even if his 2024 numbers land somewhere in between his last two seasons, Diaz will provide plenty of save opportunities, plus low ERA, WHIP, AVG, and OBP, along with high Ks. Draft with confidence.

 

Honorable Mentions

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Sale finished strong in 2023, seeing him give up one run or fewer in four of five September starts. His BB:K was 8:29 in those five starts. He's battled injuries the last few seasons and he's not getting any younger (34), but a healthy Sale can provide plenty of fantasy production.

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers selected Mize #1 overall in 2018 and he had a pretty good 2021 season in the bigs, but made just two starts in 2022 before needing Tommy John surgery. It'll be nearly two years removed from the surgery so he should be ready to go in 2024. Keep him on your radar.

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

As with Mize, Buehler is recovering from TJ surgery but was close to returning in 2023, so he too should be ready to go in 2024. Buehler has twice been an All-Star and came in fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021.

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays

Manoah was an All-Star and finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, but a tumultuous 2023 saw him demoted, only to be brought back up and demoted again late in the season. If he can return to form, he could be a value pick in drafts.

Others to keep an eye on:

Keep tabs on these players, as all have provided valuable fantasy seasons in the past and have the tools to do so again in 2024: Lucas Giolito, Free Agent; Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees; Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins; Jack Flaherty, Free Agent.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Year In Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
NHL

Dan Vladar Links Up with Flyers on Two-Year Deal
NHL

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact with Oilers
NHL

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
NHL

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NHL

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NHL

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
NHL

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
NHL

Vladislav Gavrikov Inks Seven-Year Deal with Rangers
NHL

Tanner Jeannot Moves to Boston
NHL

Corey Perry Joins Kings on One-Year Deal
K'Andre Miller

Hurricanes Pick Up K'Andre Miller
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Houston Rockets

Jeff Green Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF