NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 3) - Targets and Avoids

September 26, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

The games get better and more dramatic by the week. It's like the NFL scripts these games. There were three games Sunday that were blowouts all the way through, not counting the Bucs which used two pick-sixes to not only cover the spread, but knock out Falcons teasers (that one really hurt). I won't go as far as to say teams saved their seasons in Week 2 but the Titans coming back from 14 down in the fourth quarter, and Baltimore winning after down 11 in the fourth were enormous wins. But then you have teams like the Vikings, that could very well be 2-0. Dalvin Cook fumbles in Week 1 when driving in overtime and then Greg Joseph misses a 37-yard field goal that would have beat Arizona (of course I had the the Vikes has the final leg of a moneyline parlay.)

In survivor land, the three most popular picks in Week 2, Browns, Packers, and Bucs, all won. My five recommendations, including the Pats as the top play, all won. My two avoids, Cardinals should have lost and Seahawks did lose.

All season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season. 

Survivor League Strategy

I wrote this before Week 1. I'll leave this section up until Week 5 when strategies change:

There are several ways to play this contest.

Week-by-week: What it sounds like. Don't look ahead, take it week-by-week choosing a team that will advance you.

The Long-Game: People plot out the entire season from Week 1-18. They look at the entire schedules determining when it would be best to choose teams based on opponents and other scheduling factors. I've personally never done this because injuries to star players can throw the whole plan into disarray. If you like this strategy, I'd advise looking ahead a maximum of three weeks and plotting the season a month at a time.

Contrarian: Don't take the big popular favorite each week. For Week 1, that would be avoiding the Bucs or Niners. The reason why people like this strategy; when one of the big favorites gets knocked out, the majority of entrants are eliminated and you avoid it.

Teams to Fade: Find the team that will be the worst and constantly fade them. Last year it was the Jets. This year it'll likely be the Texans.

My strategy: A combination of the above. I obviously want a team I'm confident in weekly. I like to look ahead but not too far ahead. And I don't like to be with the majority of people. For example, the Bucs and Chiefs are expected to be so why waste them in Week 1? Plenty of better opportunities later in the year. For example; the Bucs play the Giants in Week 11.

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 3

Lines are consensus from The Action Network (home team in caps); BRONCOS -11 vs. Jets, BILLS -9 vs. Washington, Ravens -8 at LIONS, Panthers -7.5 at TEXANS, BROWNS -7.5 vs. Bears, CHIEFS -7 vs. Chargers, and Cardinals -7 at JAGUARS.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 3

SEVEN games with a point spread of more than seven. There are many options this week. Here's my order of confidence on them.

Ravens -8 at LIONS

Baltimore got the monkey off their backs with an enormous win against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Will there be a hangover? Probably but the Ravens beat up on bad teams. This has been the case the last two years. They get ahead, and the opponent can't stop Lamar Jackson and the rushing attack.

You may think taking Baltimore in Week 3 is too early, but take a look at their schedule after this one.

The Colts and Cincy are two plausible options. But Indy is a Monday night game and the Bengals is a divisional one. This is a sure-fire game for Baltimore.

Ravens 37 - Lions 21

BRONCOS -11 vs. Jets

I suggested taking Denver in Week 1 against the Giants. That won, so if you had them then, you can't take them here. However, if you didn't, they're a strong option here.

When Denver's schedule came out, a path to 3-0 seemed possible and now they're 2-0 with the lowly Jets coming to Mile High. The Broncos defense is fifth in opponent yards per play and have given up 13 points in each game. Rookie Zach Wilson who's off a terrible four interception game against New England now has to face this Broncos defense in what will be Denver's first home game. The fans are going to be loud welcoming home their 2-0 Broncos.

Broncos 26 - Jets 10

Panthers -7.5 at TEXANS

This is the best chance to use Carolina. The only other option would be Week 7 at the Giants, but that's too far to look ahead for an average team.

The Panthers defense has looked phenomenal in two weeks, first in opponent yards per game, points per game, and sacks (10 through two games). Tyrod Taylor will miss Thursday night's game with a hamstring injury so in comes Davis Mills. The third-round pick out of Stanford was 8-18 for 102 yards with a touchdown and a pick. That's a yards per attempt of 5.7 yards, far below the 7.5 average you want.

Sam Darnold has, predictably, looked very efficient through two games with a 68.5 completion percentage, 8.0 yards per attempt, three touchdowns and one pick. Christian McCaffrey has looked great. If the Panthers are for real, they need to take care of business in this one.

Panthers 24 - Texans 19

BILLS -9 vs. Washington

Buffalo heard all the chirping after the Week 1 loss to the Steelers and dominated the Dolphins. 14 points early en route to a 35-nothing shut out win. That's the team everyone pegged as their Super Bowl darling before the year.

Washington had a dramatic win against the Giants on Thursday Night Football but they need to play much much better against Buffalo to come close to winning. Plus Washington's "vaunted" defense is giving up 400+ plus yards per game, ninth worst.

Bills 33 - Washington 17

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

BROWNS -7.5 vs. Bears

Cleveland looked underwhelming against Houston. Perhaps they were sleepwalking knowing it was the Texans. Baker Mayfield injured his shoulder Sunday but returned to guide them to victory.

What do you make of Chicago? Is their defense back? Is Justin Fields the starting quarterback now after Andy Dalton got injured? There are too many questions here for me to be confident in the Browns. Plus there's a chance you used them last week against the Texans.

Bears 22 - Browns 21

Cardinals -7 at JAGUARS

Not all of these big favorites will win this week. There will be an upset or two. Arizona is my candidate. Kyler Murray is so electric, but so unpredictable. I don't trust Kliff Kingsbury and their defense was fully exposed by the Vikings. This is a kitchen sink game for the Jags.

Cardinals 20 - Jaguars 19 

CHIEFS -7 vs. Chargers

Kansas City should win this one but you'll want to save them.

Chiefs 31 - Chargers 23

Best Bets

• Titans -5 vs. Colts - Carson Wentz is really banged up and Tennessee looks like they will begin to roll.
• Bucs +0.5 at Rams - Tampa Bay seems to get bored and go on cruise control. Not in this one though. They'll know the stakes and give their best effort. Plus, when do you ever get Tom Brady as an underdog?
• 49ers -4 vs. Packers - San Fran under Kyle Shanahan has dominated the Packers in recent years behind their rushing attack. Let Green Bay can win out there and prove me wrong.

Running Totals

• Last week: 4-1-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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