RADIO
It's time to overreact. Aaron Rodgers should've stayed retired, the Falcons are going to be one of the five worst teams, the Vikings have no hope, and the Rams are still going to the Super Bowl. There are some justified reactions like the Jets are the same ol' Jets, Daniel Jones is not an NFL quarterback, and the Bears are lifeless. But it's only one game, everyone needs to settle down and make their judgments after a couple of games.
As for survivor pools, the most popular picks in Week 1, the Bucs, Rams, and 49ers, all won. Another hot play was the Panthers who easily beat the Jets. My top play, the Broncos, cruised to victory against the Giants. We're onto Week 2 where there are a lot of three-point spreads but also some no-brainers.
All season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season.
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Survivor League Strategy
I wrote this before Week 1. I'll leave this section up until Week 5 when strategies change.
There are several ways to play this contest.
Week-by-week: What it sounds like. Don't look ahead, take it week-by-week choosing a team that will advance you.
The Long-Game: People plot out the entire season from Week 1-18. They look at the entire schedules determining when it would be best to choose teams based on opponents and other scheduling factors. I've personally never done this because injuries to star players can throw the whole plan into disarray. If you like this strategy, I'd advise looking ahead a maximum of three weeks and plotting the season a month at a time.
Contrarian: Don't take the big popular favorite each week. For Week 1, that would be avoiding the Bucs or Niners. The reason why people like this strategy; when one of the big favorites gets knocked out, the majority of entrants are eliminated and you avoid it.
Teams to Fade: Find the team that will be the worst and constantly fade them. Last year it was the Jets. This year it'll likely be the Texans.
My strategy: A combination of the above. I obviously want a team I'm confident in weekly. I like to look ahead but not too far ahead. And I don't like to be with the majority of people. For example, the Bucs and Chiefs are expected to be so why waste them in Week 1? Plenty of better opportunities later in the year. For example; the Bucs play the Giants in Week 11.
Teams favored by 7+ in Week 2
Lines are consensus from The Action Network (home team in caps); BUCS -12.5 vs. Falcons, BROWNS -12.5 vs. Texans, PACKERS -10.5 vs. Lions.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 2
The Bucs, Browns, and Packers will be the most popular picks.
BUCS -12.5 vs. Falcons
This line has major overreaction built into it after Atlanta got crushed by the Eagles. Football is a week-to-week game and the Falcons will not be so bad again. Nonetheless, the Bucs should have no problem winning this one.
Bucs 31 - Falcons 23
BROWNS -12.5 vs. Texans
Cleveland has to be kicking themselves after losing to the Chiefs. But to beat Kansas City, you need to play a complete 60-minute game. Against Houston, not so much. The Texans dominated the Jaguars but I wouldn't look into that too much. The Browns need to get back on track this week. You can't start 0-2.
Browns 33 - Texans 14
PACKERS -10.5 vs. Lions
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were embarrassed Sunday and now get a chance to show it was just a bad game when they host Detroit on Monday Night Football. The Lions will be without one of their starting cornerbacks, Jeff Okudah. Rodgers should have a field day.
Packers 30 - Lions 17
Patriots -5.5 at JETS
This is my favorite survivor play and bet of the week. New England should have beaten Miami. They played really good defense and ran the ball very efficiently which they'll have no problem doing again Sunday against New York. The Jets looked so bad in Carolina on Sunday. Zach Wilson looked like a rookie and will surely have another rough outing against Bill Belichick's defense. Plus, the Jets are without starting left tackle Mekhi Becton.
Patriots 24 - Jets 10
Broncos -6 at JAGUARS
Denver's defense was as good as advertised against the Giants. Now they face rookie Trevor Lawrence. As long as the Broncos can run the ball, Teddy Bridgewater will do enough to get this win.
Broncos 26 - Jaguars 19
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
CARDINALS -4.5 vs. Vikings
Arizona looked like one of the best all-around teams against the Titans. Everything was clicking. Minnesota had a heartbreaking loss against the Bengals. I hate to say this is a must-win game for them, but with Seattle and the Browns the next two games, it's crucial they win.
Vikings 26 - Cardinals 24
SEAHAWKS -5.5 vs. Titans
Tennessee is in a similar situation to Minnesota. The Titans have the Colts in Week 3 and could be looking at an awful start. The Titans defense is really bad and Russell Wilson will expose them. But I think the Titans come out with a heavy running approach and try to slow the game down. It still may not be enough.
Seahawks 28 - Titans 25
Best Bets
- Patriots -5.5 at Jets
- Vikings +4.5 at Cardinals
- Falcons +12.5 at Bucs
Running Totals
- Last week: 2-0-1
- 2020 season total: 24-27
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
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