Lions Ready to Roar Back Without Matt Patricia

December 2, 2020

Andrew Erickson evaluates the fantasy football value of all Detroit Lions players going forward after the firing of head coach Matt Patricia, particularly D'Andre Swift, Kenny Golladay, and Matthew Stafford.

The Detroit Lions’ experimental attempt to become the NFC’s version of the New England Patriots is officially over before it ever really started.

Well, to be fair, it did technically start. After the Lions hired Bob Quinn as the team’s general manager in January 2016, he began stockpiling former Patriots - mostly defensive players who the Patriots chose (wisely) not to resign. He also brought on former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as the team’s head coach prior to the 2018 season. However, the winning part, the part that made the organization want to emulate the Patriots in the first place, certainly never started.

After their Thanksgiving day loss, the Detroit Lions fired both Quinn and Patricia. Patricia ends his tenure with a 13-29-1 record. Quinn, meanwhile, oversaw two above-.500 seasons in 2016 and 2017 as the team went 18-14 under head coach Jim Caldwell. Then it was all downhill from there. His questionable firing of Caldwell at the time looks even more egregious after the disastrous Patricia tenure. What does this all mean for the Lions in fantasy terms for the rest of 2020 and going forward? Let’s take a look.

Matthew Stafford

One of the lone bright spots over the course of the Patricia era has been the continued steady play of quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Stafford made 35 starts under Patricia and threw for 58 touchdowns and 24 interceptions. Last year, Stafford only played eight games before suffering multiple fractures in his spine, which brought his season to an end. Over those eight games he played, he was fantastic. He threw for 2,499 passing yards and 19 touchdowns while earning a quarterback rating of 106. Extrapolate those numbers over a full season and he no doubt would have been a QB1 in fantasy. Only four quarterbacks were better in fantasy than Stafford on a per-game average last year.

All this is to essentially say that Stafford has shown the ability to be system-proof. His floor under Patricia was still a low-end QB1. If the Lions bring in a strong offensive-minded head coach next year – such as Eric Bieniemy or Robert Saleh – then there’s solid room for growth for Stafford. On the other hand, if they bring on another defensive-minded coach like Patricia, Stafford should still be able to perform adequately well.

Stafford has two years left on his contract. He’s likely to remain the Lions starting quarterback through 2022. After that, we could see the two parties split ways.

The Quinn regime decided to stay wholly committed to Stafford. With the third overall pick in this past year’s draft, the team could have taken a chance on either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert but padded the defense instead by drafting cornerback Jeff Okudah.

With four wins right now, the Lions aren’t likely to have another top-three pick in April 2021, but they should end up with a pick near the edge of the top-10. The new regime might want to consider adding a new franchise face at quarterback such as North Dakota State’s Trey Lance – assuming Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are off the board – but that should be considered far from imminent at this point.

For season-long leagues, Stafford is going to be a matchup and arsenal-dependent low-end QB1 the rest of the way. Kenny Golladay (hip) could be back as soon as Week 13 and his presence helps lift Stafford’s value immensely.

Darrell Bevell is the Lions’ new interim head coach, promoted from offensive coordinator. Bevell might expand or diversify the playbook a bit going forward as he really doesn’t have anything to lose, so that could help Stafford’s upside a bit as well.

Unfortunately, Stafford and the Lions don’t have a particularly favorable schedule the rest of the way. Their next two matchups are against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, who both have solid pass defenses. In Week 15, they face the Tennessee Titans, who have a bottom-five pass defense, so Stafford has some solid upside there. But, in one-quarterback season-long leagues of 12 teams or less, Stafford can probably be left on waivers.

As for dynasty leagues, Stafford is an intriguing buy, especially if your league has a number of keepers from year-to-year. We’ve seen his floor with Patricia and his fantasy value can really only go up with a new coach in town. With Bieniemy or Saleh, Stafford would have a good chance to put together a top-10 fantasy quarterback season in 2021.

The only potential hurdle that Stafford could face is if the team doesn’t bring back Golladay next year as he’s an unrestricted free agent (more on that a few sections down). Stafford is known for his ability to spread the ball around so losing Golladay wouldn’t be crushing, but if the team lost Golladay and failed to replace him with anything of substance, then Stafford could face a challenge.

The Running Game

All eyes are on rookie second-round pick D'Andre Swift, who has missed the team’s last two games with a concussion. Before the injury, he was showing some clear signs of breaking out through an increased workload. His strong numbers the past two games he’s been active speak for themselves.

It’s unclear when Swift will be back, but he should be held onto in all season-long leagues due to the upside he’s shown when given the chance. Once back, he should certainly see a heavy workload yet again so the organization can get a more complete look at him. He should be counted on as an RB2 as soon as he’s active.

In dynasty terms, the firing of Patricia is a great development for Swift. The new regime would be foolish to not view Swift as one of the offensive foundational pieces of the franchise. One look at Swift’s highlights against the Washington Football Team in Week 10 should be all they need to see.

Next year, Adrian Peterson probably won’t be on the Lions roster and Kerryon Johnson will project to be the team’s No. 2 behind Swift. Neither player has any value in dynasty leagues at this point.

However, while Swift remains out this year, both Peterson and Johnson have value in deep season-long leagues. Peterson is seeing slightly more carries while Johnson is more active in the passing game. Overall, Johnson is the more intriguing of the two, especially in PPR leagues, but both are worth rostering in leagues of 12 teams or deeper for now.

If Bevell indeed opens up the playbook the rest of the way this year, there will be some Lions running backs who reap the rewards along with Stafford.

Wide Receivers

The headliner of this group, Kenny Golladay, has had an injury-riddled season. He’s only played in four full games and has 20 catches for 338 yards and two touchdowns on the year. There’s a chance he’ll be back on the field in Week 13 against the Bears. If he is, he should be started in all leagues.

Golladay is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. He’s 27 years old and is likely to receive some sturdy contract offers from the market, potentially from the Lions as well. The Lions could also franchise tag him, but that would be an unlikely move for a new regime. Whoever comes in as the Lions' general manager is going to be looking for long-term solutions and tagging Golladay would hurt the team’s long-term outlook. It would probably mean just one more year in Detroit for Golladay and it would prevent other players from seeing opportunities for growth and development.

If Golladay signs a long-term deal with the Lions, he should be coveted as a strong fantasy asset in dynasty leagues. But up until anything is settled or even at least heavily speculated upon, his dynasty value is more uncertain. At 27, he should still have at least two or three years of his prime ahead of him, but if he ends up on a team with other elite pass-catchers, his value would decrease.

If you have Golladay in your dynasty league and someone offers an attractive package for him, it’s worth considering, but don’t sell too low on him if someone tries to low-ball you.

In addition to Golladay, there are four other Lions receivers worth monitoring in season-long leagues the rest of the way:

Marvin Jones Jr. has been the team’s most productive wide receiver of the year. He’s been inconsistent but has still delivered 43 receptions for 503 yards and five touchdowns this season. On Thanksgiving, he had a whopping 12 targets. He’s a solid WR3 with Golladay out and a risky WR4/flex option with Golladay active.

Danny Amendola has shown some flashes of productivity this year, but he’s dealing with a hip injury right now and it’s unclear when he’ll be back. He has the potential to be a WR4/flex option with Golladay out, but he’s yet to score a touchdown this year through nine games.

Mohamed Sanu Sr. made his Lions debut on Thanksgiving and caught all four of his targets for 32 yards and a touchdown. He could prove to have some solid PPR value going forward depending on which other receivers are healthy.

Quintez Cephus, a rookie fifth-round pick, is the biggest unknown from this group and he also may be the one with the most to gain going forward this year. Cephus had six catches for 97 yards over the first two games this year while Golladay was sidelined, but his production has been minimal since then. As the Lions try to figure out what they have personnel-wise, we might see Cephus get more looks and opportunities down the stretch this year. It certainly serves the team better to see what Cephus can do in an expanded role than it does with any of the above-mentioned veteran receivers.

Tight End

There’s a case to be made that T.J. Hockenson is the biggest fantasy faller on the team with Patricia’s firing. Hockenson was drafted eighth overall in 2019 and was very clearly intended to be one of the cornerstones of the offense under Patricia. The Patriots flourished with their tight end usage – Rob Gronkowski, namely – over the past decade, and Hockenson was clearly intended to be used in a Gronk-like capacity for the Detroit “pseudo-Patriots.”

This year, Hockenson has been about as good as any fantasy tight end not named Travis Kelce. He has 45 catches for 530 yards and five touchdowns on 68 targets on the season.

While you might look at Hockenson’s high usage under Patricia and think that the next coach is likely to decrease his usage and drop his value, the other side of the coin is that Patricia gave a 23-year-old the chance to show how effective he could be in the NFL and Hockenson certainly delivered. He’s a great red zone threat and he’s emerged as a standout blocker as well.

Stay confident in Hockenson in season-long leagues unless we start to see his target share drop off. The tight end position is too murky to get away from Hockenson at this point.

In dynasty leagues, Hockenson should be viewed as a strong asset. He’s a young tight end with a strong quarterback and limited competition for touches. In fact, he’d be the biggest winner if Golladay ends up elsewhere next year. Even if the offense diversifies a bit going forward and his usage goes down, Hockenson should still be able to make his mark, especially in the red zone.

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