RADIO
Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.
This series continues into its ninth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 9, we saw performances such as the Minnesota Vikings wide receivers combining for five receptions, Josh Allen throwing for 415 yards, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs taking only four carries for nine rushing yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvements Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Denver Broncos Running Backs
Pat Shurmur
The Denver Broncos lost against the Atlanta Falcons, 34-27. In this game, the Broncos running backs just couldn't get going and combined to take 14 carries for 41 rushing yards and one reception on four targets for nine receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the Broncos running back room is averaging 21.13 carries, 96.38 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 3.63 receptions (5.25 targets), 19.88 receiving yards, and 0.13 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Denver Broncos (8 games) | 21.13 | 96.38 | 0.63 | 3.63 | 5.25 | 19.88 | 0.13 |
| Pat Shurmur Prior (169 games) | 23.1 | 96.32 | 0.66 | 5.03 | 6.86 | 38.56 | 0.11 |
Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Shurmur has had his running back room average 23.10 carries, 96.32 rushing yards, 0.66 rushing touchdowns, 5.03 receptions (6.86 targets), 38.56 receiving yards, and 0.11 receiving touchdowns per game in the 169 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
Looking at the 2020 Denver Broncos and comparing it to what we've historically seen out of Pat Shurmur's running back room, we notice a few things. First, we notice that the 2020 rushing stats are extremely similar to Shurmur's career averages. This means that we are likely to get similar production from this group going forward and there's probably no real value to be had from the Broncos running backs in the run game. However, there does seem to be some value to be had from the Broncos running backs in the passing game, as they are currently vastly underperforming what we would expect from a Pat Shurmur running back room. Going forward, expect better performances than Sunday from the Broncos running backs, as well as some improvement from this group in the passing game.
Fantasy players this impacts: Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, and Royce Freeman
Buffalo Bills Running Backs
Brian Daboll
The Buffalo Bills managed to beat a tough Seattle Seahawks team 44-34. While most position groups performed well, one group that underperformed was the Bills running backs, who combined for 11 carries, 19 rushing yards, five receptions (on five targets), 63 receiving yards, and one rushing touchdown.
After this performance, on the season the Bills running back room is averaging 17.44 carries, 73.33 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns, 3.67 receptions (5.22 targets), 31.67 receiving yards, and 0.22 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Buffalo Bills (9 games) | 17.44 | 73.33 | 0.44 | 3.67 | 5.22 | 31.67 | 0.22 |
| Brian Daboll Prior (96 games) | 23.83 | 98.96 | 0.43 | 3.93 | 5.28 | 28.81 | 0.09 |
Now let's compare this to what the Bills offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time as an offensive coordinator. Daboll has had his running back room average 23.83 carries, 98.96 rushing yards, 0.43 rushing touchdowns, 3.93 receptions (5.28 targets), 28.81 receiving yards, and 0.09 receiving touchdowns per game in the 96 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.
Looking ahead, the Bills running backs should see a little bit more usage on the ground in the second half of the season. But there are very real concerns with how much more usage they will get with how well Josh Allen is playing right now. Expect this group to improve on the ground, but it probably won't be by as much as fantasy players would like.
Fantasy players this impacts: Zack Moss and Devin Singletary
Tennessee Titans Running Backs
Arthur Smith
The Tennessee Titans beat the Chicago Bears 24-17 in a hard-fought game. In this game, the Titans running backs combined to take 28 carries for 89 rushing yards. That's it. No involvement in the passing game for this group, and no touchdowns.
After this performance, on the season the Titans running back room is averaging 27.75 carries, 133.5 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 1.75 receptions, 3.13 targets, and 12.5 receiving yards per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Tennessee Titans (8 games) | 27.75 | 133.5 | 1 | 1.75 | 3.13 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Arthur Smith Prior (16 games) | 23 | 110.94 | 1 | 2.69 | 3.56 | 23.13 | 0.19 |
Now let's compare this to what the Titans offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator role. Smith has had his running back room average 23 carries, 110.94 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 2.69 receptions, 3.56 targets, 23.13 receiving yards, and 0.19 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.
Based on this information, expect better performances from the Titans running backs than how they did against the Chicago Bears, but the season totals are about what we'd expect from an Arthur Smith offense.
Fantasy players this impacts: Derrick Henry, D'Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols, and Darrynton Evans
Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers
Greg Roman
The Baltimore Ravens pulled out a victory over a strong Indianapolis Colts team, winning 24-10. Because the Ravens were ahead for most of the game, they didn't need to utilize their wide receivers very much and it showed on the stat sheet. In this game the Ravens wide receivers combined for eight receptions on 10 targets for 86 receiving yards.
After this performance, through the first eight games of the season, the Baltimore Ravens wide receiver room is averaging 9.38 receptions on 14.13 targets for 123.88 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Baltimore Ravens (8 games) | 9.38 | 14.13 | 123.88 | 0.5 |
| Greg Roman Prior (98 games) | 9.76 | 15.90 | 126.49 | 0.82 |
Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator. Roman has had his wide receiver room average 9.76 receptions on 15.90 targets for 126.49 receiving yards, and 0.82 receiving touchdowns per game in the 98 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
Overall, the 2020 Baltimore Ravens wide receivers seem to be performing around the level we would expect from a Greg Roman offense, with the exceptions of receiving touchdowns. And considering the Ravens remaining schedule features a lot of teams with poor pass defenses, there's a good chance that this group catches more touchdowns down the stretch. Based on this information, now would be a good time to acquire Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown in your fantasy league while his value is at its lowest.
Fantasy players this impacts: Marquise Brown, Dez Bryant, and Willie Snead
Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs
Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy
The Kansas City Chiefs fought for a hard-earned victory against the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday, winning 33-31. In this game, the Chiefs running backs combined for nine carries, 22 rushing yards, five receptions (on seven targets), 18 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown.
After this performance, on the season the Kansas City Chiefs running back room is averaging 19.78 carries, 86.33 rushing yards, 0.33 rushing touchdowns, 4.67 receptions (7.33 targets), 34.67 receiving yards, and 0.11 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Kansas City Chiefs (9 games) | 19.78 | 86.33 | 0.33 | 4.67 | 7.33 | 34.67 | 0.11 |
| Andy Reid Prior (336 games) | 19.98 | 87.62 | 0.65 | 4.95 | 6.73 | 42.94 | 0.29 |
| Eric Bieniemy Prior (32 games) | 18.88 | 82.88 | 0.81 | 5.03 | 6.09 | 45.38 | 0.47 |
Now let's compare this to what the Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Andy Reid has had his running back room average 19.98 carries, 87.62 rushing yards, 0.65 rushing touchdowns, 4.95 receptions (6.73 targets), 42.94 receiving yards, and 0.29 receiving touchdowns per game in the 336 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 32 games that Eric Bieniemy had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, he had his running back room average 18.88 carries, 82.88 rushing yards, 0.81 rushing touchdowns, 5.03 receptions (6.09 targets), 45.38 receiving yards, and 0.47 receiving touchdowns per game.
The Chiefs running backs are going to be prone to low-production days like Sunday once and a while in Andy Reid's pass-happy offense. Comparing the 2020 Chiefs season totals to these coaches' previous production at the position, the overall usage and yardage seem to be in line with what we'd expect. However, the touchdowns for this group are running on the lower end of what we'd expect in this offense, so it's possible the Chiefs running backs may be undervalued a little bit.
Fantasy players this impacts: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Le'Veon Bell, and Darrel Williams
Minnesota Vikings Wide Receivers
Gary Kubiak
The Minnesota Vikings beat their division rivals, the Detroit Lions, 34-20 this past Sunday. In the game, Dalvin Cook dominated taking 22 carries for 206 rushing yards and two touchdowns, carrying the team to victory. Because of this dominant performance from Cook, the Vikings wide receivers had a subpar performance as a whole, combining for five receptions (on nine targets) for 102 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.
After this performance, on the season the Vikings wide receiver room is averaging 10.13 receptions on 15.13 targets for 155.88 receiving yards and 1.25 receiving touchdowns per game.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Vikings (8 games) |
10.13 | 15.13 | 155.88 | 1.25 |
|
Gary Kubiak Prior
(349 games) |
11.13 | 18.46 | 150.21 | 0.86 |
Now let's compare this to what the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Gary Kubiak has had his wide receiver room average 11.13 receptions on 18.46 targets for 150.21 receiving yards and 0.86 receiving touchdowns per game in the 349 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
The Vikings wide receivers seem to be hitting a bit of a cold spell, landing on this list for the second consecutive week. Last week we claimed that there should be a slight increase in volume (targets) and a slight decrease in receiving touchdowns for this position group. That remains true for this week.
Fantasy players this impacts: Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson
Las Vegas Raiders Wide Receivers
Jon Gruden & Greg Olson
The Las Vegas Raiders took down the Los Angeles Chargers 31-26 in a nailbiter. In this game, the Raiders wide receivers underperformed a bit, catching four passes on nine targets for 115 receiving yards and a touchdown.
After this performance, on the season the Raiders wide receiver room is averaging 8.5 receptions on 12.63 targets for 139.5 receiving yards and 1.13 receiving touchdowns per game.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Raiders (8 games) |
8.5 | 12.63 | 139.5 | 1.13 |
| Jon Gruden Prior (256 games) |
10.54 | 17.69 | 140.43 | 0.81 |
| Greg Olson Prior (172 games) |
10.97 | 19.34 | 142.58 | 0.9 |
Now let's compare this to what the Las Vegas Raiders head coach, Jon Gruden, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Jon Gruden has had his wide receiver room average 10.54 receptions on 17.69 targets for 140.43 receiving yards and 0.81 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 172 games that Greg Olson had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Olson has had his wide receiver room average 10.97 receptions on 19.34 targets for 142.58 receiving yards and 0.90 receiving touchdowns per game.
This is the second week in a row that the Las Vegas Raiders wide receivers have been on this list. While they should get more work based on their coaches career averages, this might just be the new normal for Raiders wide receivers, with wide receiver targets being around the same level as last year.
Fantasy players this impacts: Henry Ruggs III, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, and Nelson Agholor
Pittsburgh Steelers Running Backs
Randy Fichtner
The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers squeaked out a win against the Dallas Cowboys, 24-19. Because the Steelers were surprisingly losing most of the game, their running backs struggled to get going, combining to take 15 carries for 30 rushing yards and catch four passes (on four targets) for 13 receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the Pittsburgh Steelers running back room is averaging 23.25 carries, 95 rushing yards, 0.88 rushing touchdowns, 3.5 receptions (4.88 targets), 19.5 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers (8 games) | 23.25 | 95 | 0.88 | 3.5 | 4.88 | 19.5 | 0 |
| Randy Fichtner Prior (32 games) | 20.13 | 81.09 | 0.63 | 5.47 | 6.59 | 42.19 | 0.25 |
Now let's compare this to what the Steelers offensive coordinator, Randy Fichtner, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator role. Fichtner has had his running back room average 20.13 carries, 81.09 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 5.47 receptions (6.59 targets), 42.19 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game in the 32 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.
In future weeks, the Pittsburgh Steelers running backs should perform better than Sunday's game against the Cowboys. Comparing the 2020 season totals with Randy Fichtner's production in the past, the overall usage, yardage, and touchdowns are around Fichtner's career per-game averages, just with the distribution between rushing totals and receiving totals changing for this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: James Conner, Anthony McFarland, and Benny Snell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs
Bruce Arians & Byron Leftwich
Ummmmm....what happened to Tampa Bay this weekend? In the nationally televised Sunday Night Football contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints, the Saints steamrolled the Buccaneers winning 38-3. The Buccaneers running backs were historically bad, combining for four carries, nine rushing yards, nine receptions (on ten targets), and 50 receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the running back room is averaging 20.56 carries, 89.78 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, 6.78 receptions (9.22 targets), 38.56 receiving yards, and 0.11 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 games) | 20.56 | 89.78 | 0.67 | 6.78 | 9.22 | 38.56 | 0.11 |
| Bruce Arians Prior (240 games) | 23.84 | 93.68 | 0.65 | 4.03 | 5.81 | 34.54 | 0.13 |
| Byron Leftwich Prior (25 games) | 21.36 | 79.36 | 0.72 | 5.16 | 7.08 | 43.68 | 0.12 |
Now let's compare this to what the Buccaneers head coach, Bruce Arians, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Arians has had his running back room average 23.84 carries, 93.68 rushing yards, 0.65 rushing touchdowns, 4.03 receptions (5.81 targets), 34.54 receiving yards, and 0.13 receiving touchdowns per game in the 240 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 25 games that Byron Leftwich has been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, he has had his running back room average 21.36 carries, 79.36 rushing yards, 0.72 rushing touchdowns, 5.16 receptions (7.08 targets), 43.68 receiving yards, and 0.12 receiving touchdowns per game.
Comparing the 2020 Buccaneers running backs to Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich's historical production utilizing the position, it appears the 2020 backs are right in line with what we would expect from these coaches' history. Expect better performances from Sunday, but the season averages as a whole suggest that the Tampa Bay running backs are appropriately priced.
Fantasy players this impacts: Ronald Jones II, Leonard Fournette, and LeSean McCoy
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receivers
Bruce Arians & Byron Leftwich
The Buccaneers have all the offensive weapons in the world, but it didn't matter against the New Orleans Saints, as the Buccaneers lost 38-3. In this game where quarterback Tom Brady struggled, the Buccaneers wide receivers combined for 12 receptions on 21 targets for 157 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
After this performance, on the season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver room is averaging 12.78 receptions on 18.44 targets for 163.11 receiving yards and 1.44 receiving touchdowns per game.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Buccaneers (9 games) |
12.78 | 18.44 | 163.11 | 1.44 |
| Bruce Arians Prior (240 games) |
12.90 | 22.15 | 178.39 | 1.12 |
| Byron Leftwich Prior (25 games) |
12.6 | 21.52 | 186.64 | 1.36 |
Now let's compare this to what the Buccaneers head coach, Bruce Arians, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Bruce Arians has had his wide receiver room average 12.90 receptions on 22.15 targets for 178.39 receiving yards and 1.12 receiving touchdowns per game in the 240 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 25 games that Byron Leftwich has been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, he has had his wide receiver room average 12.6 receptions on 21.52 targets for 186.64 receiving yards and 1.36 receiving touchdowns per game.
With the exception of receiving touchdowns, the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver room is underperforming relative to the production we are used to from a Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich wide receiver room. Considering the talent in this wide receiver room, there's a good chance that these numbers improve in the second half of the season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson
Miami Dolphins Running Backs
Chan Gailey
The Miami Dolphins pulled out another victory, beating the Arizona Cardinals in a 34-31 thriller to improve to 5-3. In this game, the Dolphins running backs were clearly missing Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida, as the running backs only combined for 18 carries, 56 rushing yards, one reception (on two targets), 17 receiving yards, and one rushing touchdown.
After this performance, on the season the Dolphins running back room is averaging 21.63 carries, 73.13 rushing yards, 0.75 rushing touchdowns, 5.25 receptions (six targets), 37.75 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Miami Dolphins (8 games) | 21.63 | 73.13 | 0.75 | 5.25 | 6 | 37.75 | 0 |
| Chan Gailey Prior (224 games) | 24.57 | 102.93 | 0.66 | 4.04 | 5.53 (only recorded for 192 games) | 30.04 | 0.15 |
Now let's compare this to what the Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gailey has had his running back room average 24.57 carries, 102.93 rushing yards, 0.66 rushing touchdowns, 4.04 receptions, 30.04 receiving yards, and 0.15 receiving touchdowns per game in the 224 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
The 2020 Miami Dolphins running back room is much improved from 2019, but still largely running below what we'd expect from a Chan Gailey running back room. Expect better performances than the one this past Sunday going forward.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Patrick Laird
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