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Mike's college football Week 11 expert picks and predictions. Get the best against the spread picks, betting trends, and score projections for the top matchups.
I dropped another game last week at 26-27, but I was able to cut my season deficit in half thanks to betting on the right games. I still feel that I'm heading in the right direction.
A few teams are taking their second bye this week. Ole Miss is slumming by playing The Citadel. It's a bit lighter of a Saturday with 42 college football games, but I still see a lot of spots that I like.
If you'd like me to advise on over/under or prop bets, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I'll be happy to answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about and make some money!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 11 - (11/8/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five, not a top 10, all of them! Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
The sheet is still under construction, as I am having issues locating articles from 2019 and 2020. If any of you have knowledge of computers and can help locate defunct webpages, I would love to hear from you!
(2) Indiana (-14.5) at Penn State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has jumped three points, so I'm glad I hit it hard at the opening. That hook is more annoying than dangerous, but if I truly believe that Indiana is the best team in the country (I've had them ranked first for the last month), this line isn't a deterrent.
Pick: Indiana -14.5
(5) Georgia (-9.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Under Kirby Smart, Georgia is 26-0 on the road against unranked teams (22-0 at unranked SEC opponents). The Bulldogs have failed to cover five of the last six such games after going 15-5 ATS in the first 20 games...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 6, 2025
That's a disturbing trend. We know that Georgia often doesn't cover big lines because they often use the game more as a practice. This shouldn't be one of those cases.
We know that Georgia is going to win (26-0...come on!), but by how much? The (other) Bulldogs have given teams fits in StarkVegas. Is Georgia really that much better than Tennessee and Texas? I'm following the trend, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
Pick: Mississippi State +9.5
(7) BYU at (8) Texas Tech (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is still climbing, and I get it. The Texas Tech defense is a bunch of nasty hombres. However, Vegas has made a habit of doubting BYU, and I've made a good chunk by betting on the Cougars. I don't think BYU wins, but 10 points is a lot in a top-10 matchup.
The money line bets are where a lot of the money is made, but I can't do it here.
Pick: BYU +10.5
SMU (-10.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Louisville and Notre Dame both struggled on Chestnut Hill against a 1-8 Boston College team. That hook seals it for me.
Pick: Boston College +10.5
Colorado at West Virginia (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There was a time not long ago that I was sure I would never bet on West Virginia this year. Colorado giving up over 50 points in back-to-back games changed me. West Virginia's upset of Houston is pushing this line higher, but it's not too high yet. Grab it now before it is.
Pick: West Virginia -6.5
James Madison (-13.5) at Marshall
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hear me out...what if Carlos Del Rio-Wilson doesn't turn it over four times in this game? Can James Madison still cover on the road? Hmmm...decisions, decisions.
Pick: Marshall +13.5
Southern Mississippi (-4.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Red Wolves have been a tough team at home, but Charles Huff has already done the impossible. He turned a team that was 4-20 over the last two years into a bowl team...by Week 9!
Pick: Southern Mississippi -4.5
Temple at Army (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has crept up to seven at MGM and Caesars. I'm assuming that others will follow suit. The thing is, there is no juice at all on Army at -7. That tells me that my feeling is right.
Pick: Army -6.5
(1) Ohio State (-29.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Julian Sayin leads college football in both completion percentage and passer rating.
Guy is completing almost 81% of his passes with 23 TDs and just 3 INTs
Heisman is his to lose at this point. #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/Dfr95GqsEe
— Rich (@CLE_RichSports) November 7, 2025
I like nothing about this line, but Ohio State is making a concerted effort to get Julian Sayin into the Heisman conversation.
Pick: Ohio State -29.5
Missouri State at Liberty (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bears haven't lost to a non-Power 4 team by more than seven points. Is Liberty that much better than Marshall or New Mexico State? Probably...
Pick: Liberty -7.5
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The best part about this game is going to be the field...
Pick: Eastern Michigan -2.5
UAB at Rice (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UAB can stop running teams. Just ask Memphis.
Pick: UAB +2.5
Maryland at Rutgers (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't buy this one. Rutgers has a lot of talent on offense, but the defense couldn't stop my high school team.
Pick: Maryland +2.5
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) at Delaware
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is all over the place, so shop around. If you're going with Delaware, it's up to -7 in a couple of spots. If you're taking the Bulldogs, it's back down to -4.5 at Bovada.
You know how much I hate this kind of play in a line. I didn't trust it much anyway. I have zero interest in this one now.
Pick: Delaware +5.5
Florida International (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's not often that you see a line this low with no juice on it. Vegas wants us to take FIU. The Blue Raiders have lost the last three games by a combined eight points. FIU's claim to fame is a fluke win over Western Kentucky.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State +1.5
Jacksonville State (-1.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Whatever...UTEP's two wins are Tennessee-Martin and Sam Houston. The only other team they played to within a touchdown was Louisiana-Monroe.
Pick: Jacksonville State -1.5
Charlotte at East Carolina (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hate lines like this, but I want to watch Charlotte play UMass. Yes, that makes me sick in the head, but it also highlights how bad Charlotte is.
Pick: East Carolina -28.5
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tulsa has been a little better lately, but not that much better.
Pick: Florida Atlantic -3.5
(3) Texas A&M (-7.5) at (22) Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Missouri is 1-19 against top 10 SEC opponents since joining the conference in 2014. That was with healthy starting quarterbacks, a luxury the Tigers don't currently have.
Pick: Texas A&M -7.5
(9) Oregon (-6.5) at (20) Iowa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down a bit, and it should be. It's going to be cold, windy, and sleet/snow in Iowa City on Saturday. In Oregon's outdoor cold-weather game last year, they nearly lost to an awful Wisconsin team. Iowa is a lot of things, but awful is not one of them. Average, maybe.
Pick: Iowa +6.5
Syracuse at (18) Miami (FL) (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't trust the line to begin with, let alone the hook. There are many better spots. Leave this one alone.
Pick: Miami (FL) -28.5
Duke (-9.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I much prefer the over 64.5. This is going to be a high-scoring game with close to 1,000 passing yards. I tend to think it stays a one-score game.
Pick: Connecticut +9.5
Kansas at Arizona (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has steadily climbed, and it may not be done. I get it. The Kansas defense is a wreck, and Noah Fifita is once again on the radar of pro scouts.
Pick: Arizona -5.5
Iowa State at TCU (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's no juice on the hook. This isn't the only place that has happened this week. Vegas wants us to take that hook and not think about it. No, thanks. I'm good.
Pick: Iowa State +7.5
Auburn at (16) Vanderbilt (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Auburn likes to ugly up games to the point where no one can recognize them. The strange part is that Vandy likes to do the same thing.
Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5
Kennesaw State (-9.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's no juice on the Aggies at all. Kennesaw has arrived, y'all. They're not going anywhere.
Pick: Kennesaw State -9.5
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Coastal may not be able to force the Panthers into the turnovers that they did against Marshall. Man, that hook is bogus. Count me out.
Pick: Coastal Carolina -7.5
(23) Washington (-10.5) at Wisconsin
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Washington will eventually solve this defense. Once again, Wisconsin might not score.
Pick: Washington -10.5
Stanford at North Carolina (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's still some juice on the Carolina side, which is kind of odd. It means that Vegas still thinks the line should be higher. I tend to agree.
Pick: North Carolina -7.5
Texas State (-2.5) at Louisiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bobcats are known for being far worse on the road. The only road game Texas State won was in the Alamodome against rival UTSA. I don't know about this one...
Pick: Louisiana +2.5
Air Force at San Jose State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Walker Eget nearly hit 500 passing yards once this season. He may top it here.
Pick: San Jose State -5.5
Wake Forest at (14) Virginia (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Most places are offering even money on Wake. You mean we won't need the Cardiac Cavs here either? Two weeks in a row?
Pick: Virginia -6.5
California at (15) Louisville (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Louisville has scored 24+ points in 22 consecutive games. That is the longest active streak in College Football.
The last time Louisville didn’t score at least 24 points in a game was in the 2023 ACC Championship vs. #4 FSU. pic.twitter.com/iQlhQV2D5s
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 6, 2025
The Cardinals may struggle without Isaac Brown, but I don't think it will be here. Keyjuan Brown is going to look like Isaac in this one.
Pick: Louisville -18.5
Florida State at Clemson (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Two months ago, Clemson was favored by 16.5. Now, they likely shouldn't be favored at all.
Pick: Florida State +1.5
LSU at (4) Alabama (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's a ton of juice on Alabama even at -10. There's still juice at -10.5 at Bovada. The fabled interim coach boost is baked into this. Forget the interim coach, what about an interim quarterback? I still don't think Garrett Nussmeier looks right. Guys don't just lose arm talent like that.
Pick: Alabama -9.5
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. All that Navy has to do is take care of the ball. That has been a real problem against the Irish for the last few years.
Pick: Navy +26.5
Florida (-3.5) at Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really don't like that hook. Honestly, I don't like Florida much either...
Pick: Kentucky +3.5
Nevada at Utah State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not sure why the line is falling. Did Carter Jones complete more than three straight passes in practice or something?
Pick: Utah State -9.5
Nebraska at UCLA (-0.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. There's a good chance that the line closes with a different team favored at different books. That rarely happens. Honestly, I haven't seen a line close under one point in over a decade.
Pick: UCLA -0.5
UNLV (-4.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rams are a lost cause once again. Almost as lost as the UNLV defense.
Pick: UNLV -4.5
Sam Houston at Oregon State (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, that's a lot of points. Leave this one alone.
Pick: Oregon State -20.5
San Diego State (-6.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Aztecs are destroying all comers, and Hawaii can't stop the run.
Pick: San Diego State -6.5
I have 20 of the 51 bets right in the middle at three points. I chickened out with six minimum bets and only laid two maximum bets. I have six four-pointers, leaving 22 on the two-line. Good luck out there!
