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Dawn's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF slate for Week 5 Monday Night Football (Oct. 6, 2025). Her NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! At first glance, this looks like a classic Mahomes smash spot, but hold on: the 3-1 Jaguars are rolling and sporting the third-best defense in the NFL. More importantly, Jacksonville is desperate to break the Patrick Mahomes curse. The Jaguars are 0-5 all-time against Mahomes, who has averaged over 300 passing yards in those matchups.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
In this article, I will be providing you with my Week 5 MNF daily fantasy football lineup picks for the 2025 NFL season. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on DraftKings. Be sure also to check out our weekly NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Patrick Mahomes - QB, KC - ($15.9K DK/$20.7K FD)
Mahomes is the chalk play here, and for good reason. He's projected at 21.9 points with a ceiling over 30, making him the highest-projected player on the slate. Everything runs through Mahomes in this offense, and even facing Jacksonville's elite defense (-13.2% DVOA), he's got the weapons and experience to produce.
The key here is that Mahomes' offensive DVOA sits at 11.6%, indicating that the Chiefs remain one of the most efficient offenses in football. Xavier Worthy is back and making his presence known, Travis Kelce remains a (shaky?) security blanket, and Hollywood Brown provides an additional option, if he can hold on to the ball.
Mahomes doesn't need a perfect game; he needs to be himself to provide value at this price.
Xavier Worthy - WR, KC - ($13.2K DK/$15.9K FD)
Worthy finds himself in an excellent position as Mahomes' emerging WR1. He's projecting at 16.29 points with a ceiling near 28, which makes him an intriguing captain option if you want to get contrarian. The second-year wideout has been explosive this season, and against a Jacksonville secondary that will be focused on shutting down Kelce, Worthy should see opportunities downfield.
The game script sets up well for Worthy to have a ceiling game. If Kansas City gets ahead early and starts taking shots, Worthy's speed becomes a matchup nightmare. His 27.87 ceiling isn't fantasy, it's what happens when a speedster like him gets 8-10 targets and finds the end zone twice. At $8,800, he's expensive, but pairing him at captain with Mahomes in your flex gives you incredible Chiefs correlation.
Fantasy managers should monitor his status leading up to the game, as he was added to the injury report late on Sunday with an ankle injury.
Travis Etienne Jr. - RB, JAC - ($14.7K DK/$17.7K FD)
Etienne is the sneaky captain play that gives you massive leverage while attacking Kansas City's biggest weakness. The Chiefs rank in the bottom five in the NFL against the run in both EPA/Play and yards before contact per attempt. Etienne has been on fire to start 2025, already racking up two 100-yard rushing performances while getting the best run-blocking of his career.
At $9,800, Etienne projects at 13.89 points with a ceiling near 25, which is RB1 production with legitimate ceiling game upside. The matchup couldn't be better: Kansas City's run defense is porous, and Jacksonville should lean on Etienne to control tempo in primetime. If the Jaguars jump ahead early and start grinding the clock, Etienne could see 25+ touches with multiple goal-line opportunities.
The captain angle makes sense in tournaments. While everyone loads up on Mahomes and Worthy, Etienne gives you a sneaky alternative with a player who should dominate his matchup.
Travis Etienne Jr. 48-yard TD 🔥
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/fP9jnLyksV
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 28, 2025
Other Captains: Brian Thomas Jr. ($15.3K DK/$18.9K FD), Travis Kelce ($11.4K DK/$13.8K FD)
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
The Chalk You'll See Everywhere:
Travis Kelce ($7.6K DK/$9.2 K FD) will be the most popular Chiefs pass catcher - he's Mahomes' safety valve and should see 8-10 targets. Brian Thomas Jr. ($10.2K/$12.6K FD) is Jacksonville's alpha receiver with TD upside. There's nothing wrong with these guys, but let's discuss leverage.
Hollywood Brown - WR, KC - ($7K DK/$7.8K FD)
Here's your primary leverage play on the Chiefs' passing game. Brown is $600 cheaper than Kelce (DK) and $1,800 cheaper than Worthy, yet he's still a starting receiver in one of the league's most potent offenses. While everyone loads up on Worthy and Kelce, Brown quietly gets 5-7 targets per game with big-play upside.
The ownership angle is what makes this play shine. Brown will be significantly lower-owned than Worthy or Kelce, giving you the Chiefs' passing game correlation with Mahomes at a discount. In large-field GPPs where you need differentiation, pairing Mahomes with Brown instead of the chalk is the exact type of pivot that wins tournaments.
Brenton Strange - TE, JAC - ($4.6K DK/$4.6 K FD)
Strange is the ultimate salary-relief play with legitimate upside. At just $4,600, he's Jacksonville's starting tight end and projects at 8.89 points with a ceiling near 17. That's incredible value for a player who should see 4-6 targets in a competitive game.
The key here is the game script. If Jacksonville is trailing and Trevor Lawrence needs to throw 35+ times to keep pace, Strange becomes a check-down option and red zone target. Tight ends often find soft spots against zone coverage, and Strange has the size to be a problem in the red zone.
Strange pairs beautifully with Lawrence in a mini-stack or works as pure salary relief when you're spending up on Mahomes and Etienne. His 16.69 ceiling isn't a pipe dream - it's one touchdown and 60 yards, which is absolutely achievable if Jacksonville stays competitive.
Other Flex Options: Travis Kelce, Brian Thomas Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Kareem Hunt - RB, KC - ($4.2K DK/$5.2K FD)
Hunt is the value RB play that should be in most lineups tonight. At just $4,200, he's Kansas City's lead back, sharing carries with Isiah Pacheco. Hunt projects at 8.06 points with a ceiling over 15, which is an excellent value for someone who will touch the ball 12-15 times regardless of game script.
The beauty of Hunt at this price is his floor. Even if Kansas City gets ahead and Pacheco handles garbage time work, Hunt receives the early-down and passing game work that produces consistent fantasy points. He's averaging 3-5 receptions per game, which in PPR format gives him a safe 8-10 point floor.
Hunt pairs perfectly with Mahomes in a Chiefs stack or works as pure salary relief when you're loading up elsewhere. If Kansas City controls this game and runs the clock in the second half, Hunt could easily approach 80 total yards and a touchdown.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR, KC - ($4.8K DK/$6K FD)
Smith-Schuster is the punt play with sneaky upside in this Chiefs offense. At $4,800, he's Mahomes' WR3 but still commands 4-6 targets per game working out of the slot. He projects at 7.86 points with a ceiling near 15, making him an excellent salary-relief option.
The game script works for JuJu if Jacksonville's elite defense forces Mahomes into quick, underneath throws. Smith-Schuster thrives on slants, crossers, and intermediate routes - exactly the type of throws Mahomes makes when pressured. He's also a sneaky red zone target, and one touchdown completely changes his value.
Smith-Schuster is the perfect salary relief option when you're trying to fit Mahomes + Worthy + Etienne into your lineup. He gives you Chiefs exposure without breaking the bank, and in a competitive game where Mahomes throws 40 times, those 5-6 targets can easily turn into 8-10 fantasy points.
Other Value Options: Isiah Pacheco ($6.2K DK/$8.4K FD) - Shares work with Hunt but TD upside, Chiefs D/ST ($3.8K/$6.6K FD) - Cheap defense in a competitive game
More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks
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