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Is Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle the WR1 for the Miami Dolphins? Should you draft Hill or Waddle in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Dave's expert draft analysis and advice.
The Miami Dolphins enter the 2025 season facing a lot of questions. Head coach Mike McDaniel could be on the hot seat as he has yet to win a playoff game in his three years as Miami's head coach. Some of that is due to bad luck regarding the health of franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Fair or not, though, the NFL is a production-based industry, and at some point, Miami will have to start winning postseason games if McDaniel wants to keep his job.
Miami's top two pass-catchers also face their own set of questions entering the 2025 season. Starting wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both coming off poor seasons in 2024. Both carry high upside for fantasy football, but each one also has potential pitfalls. There is potential for Miami's passing game to bounce back this year, so fantasy gamers should have some interest in drafting Hill and Waddle.
Which wide receiver should fantasy gamers target in their 2025 fantasy football drafts? Let's take a few minutes and discuss what managers should do with the Dolphins' wide receiver duo.
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Tyreek Hill 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Hill is coming off an extremely disappointing season in 2024. He battled a wrist injury all season, and starting quarterback Tagovailoa missed multiple weeks after suffering another concussion. As a result, Hill only posted an 81-959-6 line and finished the season as the PPR WR18. Hill was one routinely taken as one of the first players off draft boards last year and was one of the biggest busts of the 2024 season.
At first glance, it might seem easy to brush off Hill's 2024 performance on Tagovailoa's injury, but there are quite a few red flags in Hill's profile that suggest otherwise. With Tagovailoa missing multiple games, it's understandable that Hill's traditional stats would decline. However, many of Hill's advanced metrics also took a downward trend in 2024. Let's analyze some of Hill's advanced metrics from the last two seasons, courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite:
2023
38% targets per route run
4.05 yards per route run
31.1% target share
44.3% air yards share
38.5% first read percentage
2024
25% targets per route run
1.99 yards per route run
20.1% target share
38.4% air yards share
23.9% first read percentage
The drop in some of these metrics is highly concerning. It suggests that Hill's game is in decline and that Miami intentionally stopped featuring him in the passing game.
We also should not completely forget the fact that he removed himself from a game toward the end of the year and reportedly told teammates, "I'm out" after doing so. McDaniel has supposedly addressed this issue with Hill, and the wide receiver has been very contrite about that moment this offseason. Tagovailoa has also stated that Hill needs to keep working to rebuild the relationships with his Dolphins teammates following that incident.
Tua on Tyreek Hill rebuilding his relationship with his Dolphins teammates after the way last season ended. pic.twitter.com/9V8zNUbx1J
— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) July 23, 2025
While this all sounds good, we now know that there is a part of Hill that is not happy in Miami. If the team struggles to get him the football, his game further declines, or Tagovailoa is injured, will that prompt Hill to formally ask for a trade? These are all fair questions, and they all probably would not be good for his fantasy football production.
Hill has been nursing an oblique injury he recently suffered in camp. We'll have to see how this injury progresses, but this could be an issue if it bleeds into the regular season.
Normally, minor preseason injuries aren't worth sweating. However, Hill is not getting any younger, and he already dealt with a wrist injury for the majority of 2024. Injuries sometimes become major issues for players as they age. DeSean Jackson is a good example of this. That may not be the case for Hill, but this oblique injury is a situation to monitor.
There was also a recent report that Hill and Tagovailoa's chemistry has been off this summer.
Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill’s Chemistry Appears Off https://t.co/TiQXQcmaIZ
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) August 18, 2025
It's odd that these two would suddenly begin having problems connecting on the field since they have played together for several years now. What is interesting, though, is that they are not getting along off the field either. Perhaps Hill has not taken kindly to Tagovailoa publicly stating he needs to fix the relationships with his teammates, and this is creating issues.
Regardless, there are a lot of potential pitfalls when we analyze Hill's 2025 outlook. Initially, Hill looked like a fantastic bounce-back candidate, especially with a healthy Tagovailoa returning. However, there are chinks in the armor, and we could very well be looking at a player about to experience a sudden and massive decline. The warning signs are there. Plus, we have potential off-the-field drama to factor in, as well as the possibility that Miami's season goes sideways and Hill demands a trade.
There is a lot to take in here. When we put it all together, it starts to look like there are more ways Hill's 2025 is a disappointment rather than being a bounce-back year. That means it's probably best for gamers to fade Hill in drafts and let someone else roll the dice.
Jaylen Waddle 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Much like Hill, Waddle's 2024 season was a disappointment. Waddle posted a 58-744-2 line across 15 games and only finished as the PPR WR46.
However, Waddle is nearly five years younger than Hill, and although he has fought nagging injuries in his career, he does not appear to have any trouble separating from defenders.
Big pickup of 63 yards by Jaylen Waddle 🐧 #GoFins
📺: #JAXvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/DztwTD51nu— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
This means we can probably chalk up Waddle's 2024 to Miami's vastly different offensive approach last year, as well as the absence of Tagovailoa. 2025 could be much different, as head coach Mike McDaniel has reportedly been pleased with Waddle's approach this offseason.
Dolphins excited to see Jaylen Waddle 'attacking his craft' in OTAs https://t.co/cs7mq0dNX3 pic.twitter.com/QKFESycmwm
— The Dolphins Wire (@thedolphinswire) June 5, 2025
Waddle has reportedly been having a strong camp, and with Hill's play in decline, we could see the fifth-year receiver take on a bigger role in the offense.
Uce to JDub on point 🎯 pic.twitter.com/0Zqcqi85Ec
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) July 24, 2025
Waddle is still just 26 years old and doesn't turn 27 until November. He has plenty of good football ahead of him, and 2024 was actually the first time in his career he failed to break 1,000 receiving yards.
For better or worse, though, Waddle's production could once again be linked to the health of Tagovailoa. That might seem like a scary proposition, but Tagovailoa did play a full season back in 2023 and was the league leader in passing yards that season.
According to Sharp Football, Miami is projected to face the easiest slate of passing defenses in the league in 2025. If Tagovailoa can remain healthy, and with so many question marks surrounding Hill, Waddle could be set up for a big year.
There's some risk, but savvy fantasy gamers should buy the dip on Waddle as he could prove to be a massive value on draft day.
Who Should You Draft in 2025 Fantasy Football?
One year ago, this would have seemed like a ridiculous question, but things change fast in the fantasy football landscape. While Waddle has had his share of injury problems over the years, he has still, for the most part, been able to deliver for fantasy gamers.
Yes, the nagging injuries and leaving/re-entering games are a headache, but Waddle has still been a solid player for the majority of his career. Hill's problems with the team might run deeper than we all realize, and there is a real possibility this relationship goes south fast if Miami struggles out of the gate.
There just seems to be way too much negativity and uncertainty surrounding Hill this offseason. Throw in the fact that his game appears to be declining, and it makes him a fairly easy fade in drafts. That makes Waddle the wide receiver to target in this offense. Luckily for gamers, he is very affordable this year, as evidenced by his FFPC ADP of 69.16 overall.
Waddle makes for a solid pick in the middle rounds of all drafts and carries WR1 upside, especially if Hill is injured or is eventually traded away.
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