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Dave's fantasy football outlook for Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker. His expert analysis and draft advice for potential league-winning running backs.
Any experienced fantasy football manager knows the importance of rostering elite running backs. The position carries legendary upside, and if you draft the correct back, he can single-handedly carry your team to a title. While running the football had fallen out of favor in recent years, running backs made a big comeback in 2024. We also have an influx of young running back talent entering the league this season. Selecting the correct running backs in your fantasy football draft could be more important than ever.
With so many talented backs available in your draft, it can be hard to figure out which one to pick. A good starting point is to identify mispriced running backs who can provide a massive advantage relative to their average draft position (ADP). One such player is Seattle Seahawks RB1 Kenneth Walker III. He has shown tantalizing upside in this three-year career, but so far, he has yet to put it all together for an elite season.
Today, we will discuss Walker in depth and discuss what makes him a potential league winner this year. With that said, let’s break down Walker and explain why you should target him in your 2025 fantasy football draft.
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Kenneth Walker III 2024 Season Review
2024 was the worst season of Walker’s career. He battled multiple injuries, which forced him to miss a career-high six games last season. Walker also posted career lows in total rushing yards, yards per carry, and averaged the fewest rushing yards per game of his career. He would finish 2024 as the overall PPR RB27.
Not everything was bad for Walker in 2024, though. He did see career-best usage as a receiver. Walker drew a career high 53 targets and posted career highs in receptions and receiving yards, too. This is a potentially game-changing scenario for his fantasy football prospects moving forward.
Many analysts had long dinged Walker for his perceived lack of pass-catching upside. Those myths were shattered last year, and Walker proved he can be a viable option in PPR formats.
So while his 2024 had a lot of bad from the rushing side of things, Walker’s uptick in receiving production was enough for gamers to remain bullish on his fantasy football ceiling.
Kenneth Walker III Analytical Profile
While Walker’s raw stats were highly disappointing last year, he actually fared quite well in several advanced running back metrics. In fact, this has been a consistent theme throughout his career. Let’s take a quick peek at some of Walker’s finishes in various advanced metrics since entering the NFL in 2022.
2024 (Among 46 running backs with 100+ attempts)
Third in PFF rushing grade
Third in PFF elusive rating
Ninth in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s missed tackles forced
First in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s missed tackles forced per attempt
10th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s yards after contact per attempt
28th in PFF’s breakaway run rate
2023 (Among 49 backs with 100+ attempts)
Seventh in PFF rushing grade
Sixth in PFF elusive rating
First in missed tackles forced
Third in missed tackles forced per attempt
20th in yards after contact per attempt
14th in breakaway run rate
2022 (Among 42 backs with 100+ attempts)
T11th in PFF rushing grade
11th in PFF elusive rating.
11th in missed tackles forced
Eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt
38th in yards after contact per attempt
First in breakaway run rate
Running back metrics are not always sticky, but Walker has consistently graded out well in key metrics. This is noteworthy and suggests that he is better than his raw statistics say. All of this data suggests Walker is capable of producing a huge fantasy football season in the right circumstances.
KENNETH. WALKER. TO. THE. HOUSE. 🏠
📺: #SEAvsLAC on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/HyjkGpXIek pic.twitter.com/znsicu868r— NFL (@NFL) October 23, 2022
Kenneth Walker III 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
The Optimistic View
As we just discussed, Walker’s career stats have underperformed relative to his advanced metrics. Some of that can be blamed on Walker’s rushing style. However, a lot of the blame can be placed on Seattle’s poor offensive line play.
Good offensive line play can help a running back reach his peak. Bad offensive line play can lead to poor rushing results. Saquon Barkley’s 2024 season is a perfect example of this. He struggled to consistently reach his ceiling playing behind a poor offensive line in New York. Once Barkley joined the Philadelphia Eagles, he excelled behind one of the best offensive lines in football.
Walker is not as talented as Barkley, but he would still get a major boost from better offensive line play. The good news for him is that Seattle has taken several steps to address this issue in 2025.
Seattle drafted guard Grey Zabel in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. This was a significant investment in the offensive line and marked a major departure from the team’s long-standing approach of devaluing the interior offensive line. His presence will bring stability to this unit and improve its overall play.
The Seahawks also made a significant coaching change this offseason. Last year’s offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, is gone. The team hired former New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. He will be Seattle’s new offensive coordinator and play-caller. Kubiak is a Shanahan disciple and brings with him a rushing scheme that has proven to be very running back-friendly over the years.
Walker is a perfect fit for Kubiak's system. Putting a talented running back behind an improved offensive line and in an ideal rushing scheme is a good formula for fantasy football success.
Concerns
As good as all that sounds, there are two concerns for Walker that we must discuss. First, there has been Walker’s inability to stay healthy. He missed six games last year due to multiple injuries and missed two games during each of his first two seasons as well. That is a valid concern and one that is slightly heightened with Walker already nursing a sore foot in training camp. But bumps and bruises are to be expected with running backs. It’s just the nature of the position, and this risk is present for any running back you draft.
The second concern for Walker is the addition of quarterback Sam Darnold this offseason. Darnold had a career year last season with the Minnesota Vikings but flamed out spectacularly during the final two games. As a result, Minnesota would let him walk in free agency.
The Seahawks were seemingly unfazed by Darnold's end-of-season meltdown and signed him to a three-year deal this offseason. Upon closer review, though, Darnold’s deal is heavily front-loaded and is basically a one-year “prove it” deal.
There is a legitimate concern that since he is now removed from an ideal situation in Minnesota, he will perform closer to the player we saw start for the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers. If that’s the case, this would be bad news for Walker's outlook as defenses would sell out to stop the run and force Darnold to beat them.
While this is a plausible scenario, things could go smoother than some people think. Kubiak was able to build a successful running game with Derek Carr as his quarterback in New Orleans last year. He might do the same with Darnold in 2025. Even in a worst-case scenario where Darnold is benched, it wouldn’t necessarily be bad news for Walker.
Drew Lock is currently viewed as the favorite to win the QB2 job. Lock played respectable football two years ago when filling in for then-Seahawks QB1 Geno Smith. Lock could do the same playing in Kubiak's system.
If Lock isn't effective, rookie quarterback Jalen Milroe would be next in line. Milroe is a super athletic dual-threat quarterback. Seattle would likely shift to a read-option-based offense. That would be good news for Walker because he would see a boost in rushing efficiency that typically comes with playing alongside a rushing quarterback like Milroe.
On top of all that, Walker is playing for a new contract in 2025, and playing for a huge bag of money is usually a good motivator. Despite some legitimate concerns, there are still a litany of reasons to be bullish on Walker’s 2025 season.
Walker running into the end zone 😤
📺: #PITvsSEA on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/sFjqko01pD pic.twitter.com/JHvbyBlClL— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023
When Should I Draft Kenneth Walker III in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts?
Walker's current Yahoo ADP of 42.6 overall has him going in the middle of the fourth round in fantasy drafts. Managers bullish on Walker should prioritize selecting him in Round 3. Ideally, Walker should be drafted as a high-risk risk high-reward RB2. He would also be a great RB3 in robust RB builds and would be a fine RB1 target in WR-heavy builds.
To close things out, there is certainly some risk in drafting Walker. While those concerns are fair, he also offers league-winning upside at his current ADP. It’s understandable if gamers want to play it safe and avoid Walker, but fantasy titles aren't won by playing a prevent defense.
If you want to win a championship, sometimes you have to gamble. If Walker hits, he could be the key to winning your league.
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