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Adam's 5 breakout players and potential league-winning picks for 2025. His top breakout candidates include Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Reed, George Pickens, and more.
The Eagles and Cowboys kick off in just about a week. Football is officially BACK. It's time to prepare for our fantasy football drafts. What better way to start than by having a list of five breakout players with league-winning upside?
That's exactly what we have in this article. Five players with Yahoo! average draft positions (ADP) between 14 and 94 that have the potential to take you to the promised land in 2025.
Don't leave your fantasy football drafts without securing at least one or two of these five players with league-winning upside.
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Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Going into the 2026 season, we're going to discuss BTJ in the same way we talk about Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.
As a rookie, Thomas finished third in receiving yards (behind Chase and Jefferson), seventh in yards per route run (2.56), and 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7). He accomplished all of that despite playing in a dysfunctional offense with poor quarterback play the previous season.
Mac Jones (-4.47) and Trevor Lawrence (-5.58) ranked 31st and 32nd, respectively, in Passing Expected Points Added (EPA).
Then-head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor barely moved Thomas around the formation. Per Fantasy Points Data, his slot snap rate (28.9%) ranked just 69th among wide receivers with at least 200 routes.
That was a travesty, given how well BTJ performed from the slot in 2024. Per Scott Barrett, no receiver in the last three years has averaged more fantasy points per route run from the slot (0.87) than Thomas Jr.
Here he is operating from the slot:
Brian Thomas Jr. in a nutshell.
Eats up ground with his strides, surprising twitchiness on the route break to get the safety leaning, double catch for the TD. pic.twitter.com/Fa2MnmCnVM
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) May 14, 2025
Now, enter new head coach Liam Coen, who comes to the Jaguars after stints with the Los Angeles Rams (2022), Kentucky Wildcats (2023), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2024).
In Tampa specifically, Coen elevated Chris Godwin by moving him around the formation. His increase in slot snap rate last season (64.1%) led to 19.7 fantasy points per game. In 2023 (without Coen), Godwin's 38.4% slot snap rate translated to just 12.3 fantasy points per game.
It sounds like Coen is ready and willing to move Thomas around the formation to maximize his ability across the middle of the field. That's music to the ears of BTJ's fantasy managers.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
What a fantastic landing spot for McMillan. The eighth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft will primarily be competing for targets with 34-year-old Adam Thielen (maybe, he's rumored to be on the trade block), and second-year wideouts Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker.
Per Fantasy Points Data, Legette ranked 58th of 77 wide receivers (minimum 300 routes) with a 1.26 yards per route run, 52nd in first downs per route run (0.068), and 48th in expected fantasy points per game.
He also had seven drops on 84 targets (8.3%). Despite being a first-round pick himself, Legette's performance as a rookie doesn't exactly exude confidence in his future production.
His loss is McMillan's gain. The Arizona product is an elite prospect, ranking in the 96th percentile in Marvin Elequin's Wide Receiver Prospect Model (which includes data since 2013).
Bryce Young also showed a ton of growth in the second half of last season. And he was chuckin' it around the yard, giving his receivers all sorts of opportunities to produce.
From Weeks 8 to 18, Young was fourth in air yards (2,699) and deep throw attempt percentage (14.1%), per Fantasy Points Data. To say he's a perfect fit for what Young wants to do would be an understatement.
Tetairoa McMillan posted 2.80+ yards per route run in back to back seasons.
He posted 8+ touchdowns in every season.
He also posted 1,300+ yards in back to back seasons.
Assuming top 10-12 draft capital, he’s a top 14-15 dynasty WR right away.pic.twitter.com/QqnHztG2MO
— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) January 13, 2025
There will be no shortage of chances for McMillan to shine as a rookie. Per Yahoo's Justin Boone, Carolina's wide receivers have the second-easiest strength of schedule in 2025.
Add that to the fact that the Panthers threw to their wide receivers the seventh-most (66.3%) of any team last season in Dave Canales' first stint as the team's head coach.
The ingredients are extremely ripe for a rookie-year breakout for McMillan.
Update - Coker has been placed on the injured reserve due to a quadriceps injury and will miss at least the first four games of the regular season. As a result, McMillan could see an even greater target share early in the season.
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Pickens goes from a Steelers team that threw the ball just 229 times to wide receivers in 2024 to a Cowboys team that threw it 397 times to wide receivers. That's a significant difference.
The Cowboys have not only been top-3 in pass attempts per game in each of the last two seasons, but they also allowed the second-most points per game in 2024 (27.5). Essentially, they're going to throw the football.
Between veterans Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue, the running back room looks relatively bleak this season. That, in conjunction with the porous defense, should lead to a boatload of passing scripts for the Cowboys.
And Dak Prescott is fully healthy heading into training camp this season, or at least that's what he told reporters earlier this offseason.
So the situation is better. Now, what about the player himself? Well, Pickens has quietly become one of the more efficient and reliable receivers in the NFL over the last two seasons.
Last season, despite being on an Arthur Smith-run offense, Pickens ranked 21st in expected fantasy points per game (14.2). Believe it or not, that was more than A.J. Brown!
But what about CeeDee Lamb? Yes, it's true, Pickens goes from being the clear-cut alpha in Pittsburgh to playing second fiddle to Lamb in Dallas.
But that's ok, just look at the numbers Tee Higgins has put up playing second fiddle to Chase all these years. Maybe Pickens will be even better now that he won't be the sole focus of opposing defenses.
And the situation in Dallas bears a striking resemblance to the one in Cincinnati. Fast-paced with a high percentage of passing plays combined with a subpar defense.
Pickens has just 12 touchdowns on 293 career targets. He has never caught more than five touchdowns in a single season. That should change in 2025.
In 2023, with a healthy Prescott, Cowboys pass-catchers saw 104 red zone targets. Compare that to just 57 red zone targets for Steelers pass-catchers in 2024. Just wait until Prescott realizes he has a deep-ball maven in Pickens.
The sky is the limit for the fourth-year man going into a pivotal contract year.
The highest-graded WR on go routes in 2024:
George Pickens - 95.6 🚀 pic.twitter.com/7bF4Oz0obe
— PFF (@PFF) June 20, 2025
D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Maybe Ben Johnson doesn't hate Swift. That's been the narrative ever since Johnson lightened Swift's workload in his first year as Lions' offensive coordinator in 2022.
But with the Bears not taking a running back (Kyle Monangai) until the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft, as well as not adding anybody in free agency, Swift appears to be the frontrunner for the RB1 job in Chicago.
And that could be a fruitful role with Johnson at the helm. Per Fantasy Points Data, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs were one and two in fantasy points per snap in Johnson's scheme last season.
Maybe things are different in Chicago than they were in Detroit, but Johnson and company sure did a lot to bolster the offensive line this offseason.
On paper, the additions of Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson make the Bears one of the most improved offensive lines in football heading into the 2025 season. And that's excellent news for Swift!
As the lead back with a good offensive line in Philadelphia in 2023, Swift averaged 2.21 yards before contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).
Last season, that number plummeted to just 1.65 on a dysfunctional offense behind a bad line. That resulted in a 36.7% success rate on zone runs. Gibbs and Montgomery both had over a 56% success rate on zone runs last season.
Under Johnson in 2022, Swift registered his highest PFF rushing grade (83.2) and second-highest receiving grade (66.0).
Despite Caleb Williams having the lowest check-down rate in the league in 2024, it sounds like he's getting some good advice this offseason. That can only help Swift, who's a willing and able pass-catcher out of the backfield.
CJ Stroud on what advice he’d give Caleb Williams heading into year 2 at @FanaticsFest:
Mentions DC’s try to exploit weaknesses & how it’s a “shell league”.
“The more you can get down, get rid of the ball, check it down.”
“I think you’re going to do great like you’ve always… pic.twitter.com/9oERdy0XLl
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) June 23, 2025
Maybe Roschon Johnson or Monangia steal some of the goal-line work, but there's certainly enough meat on the bone for multiple backs to excel in a Ben Johnson offense. That's especially true for an above-average receiving back like Swift.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
Reed is probably the Packers' best wide receiver. The problem is, they won't make him a full-time player. Last season, Reed was just 69th in routes run per team dropback (per Fantasy Points Data).
Yes, he's dealing with a mild foot injury, and yes, Matthew Golden looks like the real deal, but Reed has been elite on a per-route basis his first two years in the NFL.
And he wasn't placed on short-term IR to begin the year, so there's a good chance he's ready to roll in Week 1.
The good thing, however, is how often the Packers utilize Reed when he is on the field. He was third among wideouts in designed targets with 25 and had nearly a 20% first-read target share. Reed has proved to be highly efficient with his targets in his first two NFL seasons. In 2024, he averaged 2.37 yards per route run. As a rookie in 2023, he averaged 2.22 yards per route run.
Criminal that this man averaged under 5 touches per game last seasonpic.twitter.com/mkc1ivmyLG
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 11, 2025
With Christian Watson unlikely to be much of a factor in 2025 after suffering a torn ACL in January, Reed will be competing with Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and rookie Golden for targets.
Doubs is a mainstay, but he's not much of a target earner, while Wicks proved to be somewhat unreliable last season due to drops. Neither receiver is nearly as efficient as Reed. Despite earning just 4.4 targets and 1.2 rush attempts in 2024, Reed still managed to produce 11.6 fantasy points per game (42nd among wide receivers).
But have no fear, more targets are coming for Reed, even if the Packers don't feature him in more of a full-time role opposite Doubs.
Last season, the Packers passed on just 49.3% of their offensive plays. Compare that to 2022 and 2023, when they passed the ball 56.6% and 57% of the time, respectively. With how efficient he is on a per-touch basis, Green Bay would be insane to keep this lightning in a bottle for another season.
With a current Yahoo ADP of 109 (WR44), there's only upside and minimal downside in drafting Reed this season. He's one of a few guys who could truly break out with a larger opportunity, and that could come in 2025.
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