Top Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: 8 Draft Targets for 2025

May 19, 2025

Adam's top breakout players at QB, RB, WR, and TE for 2025. Read his top breakout candidates and undervalued draft targets for 2025 fantasy football.

What exactly is a "breakout" player? It can be thought of as multiple things. It can be a player who is undervalued who goes all "scorched-earth" on the field. It can be a player who showed upside last year who puts it all together over a full season this year.

When I think of a "breakout" player, I also think of them as "must-haves." These are guys you should be taking in the middle rounds of your fantasy drafts because of their immense upside. These picks don't come without some risk, though, of course.

For those wondering, we're not going to highlight Nico Collins as a "breakout" player in 2025. That's too easy. Instead, we'll take a look at guys that aren't being drafted within the top 50 picks. Here are two breakout players at each position you should draft in the 2025 fantasy football season.

Fantasy Football Breakouts: Quarterbacks

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Drake Maye has all the intangibles you could want at the quarterback position. He's smart, athletic, and can rip it. He showed some of that promise last season despite the shortcomings of first-time head coach Jerod Mayo and new Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.

From Weeks 6 through 17, in his first 10 career NFL games, Maye averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game. That would have been good for QB13 in 2024, just behind Kyler Murray (18.1) and just ahead of Justin Herbert (17.0). That's not bad considering that the top three options in the passing game were Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, and Kayshon Boutte.

This offseason, the Patriots brought in experienced head coach Mike Vrabel and former long-time New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. They also signed Stefon Diggs to a $69M contract and brought in a forever-underrated Mack Hollins.

Even after signing Diggs and Hollins, the Patriots weren't close to done surrounding Maye with offensive firepower. They used their first four picks of the 2025 NFL Draft on the offensive side of the ball (fourth overall - OT Will Campbell, 38th overall - RB TreVeyon Henderson, 69th overall - WR Kyle Williams, 95th overall - C Jared Wilson).

As a rookie, Maye ran for 421 yards in just 11 games. His 7.8 yards per carry was the most for any player in the NFL last season (with a minimum of 50 attempts). Extrapolated over a full season, Maye would have run for 650 yards as a rookie.

To put that into perspective, Lamar Jackson ran for 695 yards in his rookie season. He followed that up with 1,206 rushing yards in his second season. Kyler Murray ran for 544 yards as a rookie and followed it up with 819 yards as a sophomore. Murray was the QB3 that season despite only throwing for 3,971 yards and 26 touchdowns.

In fantasy football, we want quarterbacks who can run the football. Wait on your quarterback in 2025 drafts and smash Maye's name late.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence isn't quite the runner Maye is, but he's also getting some massive team upgrades heading into his fifth NFL season.

New Jaguars head coach Liam Coen helped propel Baker Mayfield from 4,044 yards and 28 passing touchdowns in 2023 to 4,500 yards and 41 passing touchdowns in 2024. He was the mastermind behind one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL last season.

Coen hired Grant Udinski as the team's offensive coordinator. Udinski comes from Minnesota, where he was the assistant offensive coordinator in 2024. He might not have been the guy in charge, but he was a part of the staff that led to Sam Darnold's career year.

And for the final piece of the pie, the Jaguars traded up and took Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter with the second overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Lawrence now gets to throw the football to a top 5 pass-catching duo in the NFL. If Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter aren't top 5, they're number six. That's how good these two are.

T Law's best season from a completion perspective was 2022, when he completed 66% of his passes. Mayfield completed 71.4% of his passes last season (with Coen) compared to just 64% in 2023 with Dave Canales. Coen and Hunter are going to work wonders to resurrect the former first-overall pick's career in 2025.

If you miss out on Maye, make sure you don't miss out on Lawrence too.

Fantasy Football Breakouts: Running Backs

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

Once Ben Johnson was named as the head coach, most thought the Bears would either take a running back early in the 2025 NFL Draft or sign one in the offseason. But all they did was draft Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai in the seventh round with the 233rd overall pick.

Essentially, unless they trade for a running back this summer, it's D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer, and Monangai. Swift is the only one of the bunch who has handled a large workload in the NFL. He also has experience playing for the new Bears head coach from their time in Detroit.

Per PlayerProfiler, Swift's weighted opportunities decreased from 16.4 in 2021 to just 12.1 in 2022. However, that led to some of the best efficiency of his career and propelled him to average 13.7 PPR fantasy points per game on just a 42% snap share and 37% opportunity share. That was good for RB16 on a per-game basis.

Yes, that was three years ago, but Johnson worked wonders in Detroit as the offensive coordinator. The hope now is that he can do the same in Chicago with the plethora of weapons. One of those weapons is Swift.

Johnson is also bringing his heavy outside zone run scheme to Chicago. In 2024, 38% of the Lions' rush attempts were outside-zone runs. That was tied for fourth in the league. On the other side of the coin, just 17% of the Bears' rush attempts were outside-zone runs last season. That was tied for just 23rd in the league.

The shift to more outside-zone running should help Swift a lot if history tells us anything.

Under this prior years mess, D'Andre Swift ran 46.8% of his attempts in outside zone.
The Bears have made clear moves thru the o line additions to build an outside zone running scheme.
In 2023, he was a much more successful runner and ran 71.4% of his attempts in outside zone. pic.twitter.com/OE4FqC3JBk

— Adam Mason (@adamhmason) April 2, 2025

Don't look now, but Swift is set to break out this season and is currently going off the board as RB27. This is despite finishing the 2022 season as the RB16 on a per-game basis, on just a 37% opportunity share with Johnson as his offensive coordinator.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks

Walker has been pretty good throughout his three-year NFL career. However, multiple injuries have prevented a true "breakout" season. He has missed at least two games in each of his three seasons and sat out six games in 2024.

Walker's past injuries are haunting fantasy managers. He's currently going off the board as RB19 on Underdog, behind Joe Mixon, RJ Harvey, and Chuba Hubbard. That despite averaging over 14 PPR fantasy points per game in each of his first three NFL seasons.

Last season, we saw a version of Walker that hadn't been seen before. Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb used him much more in the passing game than in previous years. He saw 4.8 targets per game, and his 52% route participation rate was the fifth-highest among running backs. In 2023, Walker averaged just 2.5 targets per game on a 36% route participation rate.

Walker was great as a pass-catcher in 2024. Per PlayerProfiler, he had the fifth-highest catch rate (86.8%) among running backs and just three recorded drops.

Now enter new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who gave Alvin Kamara 6.5 targets per game last season in New Orleans. Kamara led all running backs with a 21.5% target share, his highest since the 2020 season.

"We're going to start with outside zone [schemes]. Looking forward to [Walker] in this scheme and we're going to ask a lot out of him." - Kubiak on his new RB1.

#Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak on his outside zone scheme, throwing the ball to running backs, and Kenneth Walker:

“Looking forward to him in this scheme, and we’re gonna ask a lot out of him.”

Wheels all the way up for K9, pants all the way off for K9 fantasy managers pic.twitter.com/JGgRqfkHJW

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 11, 2025

For those wondering, in his career, Walker averages 4.04 yards per carry on non-outside zone rushes. On outside zone rushes, he's averaging 4.54 yards per carry (via Fantasy Points Data). He's been a rock-solid running back in the NFL and should continue to thrive in Kubiak's new-look offense.

Total Missed Tackles Forces Leaders
[2022-2023 @FantasyPtsData]

1. Ken Walker (145)
2. Christian McCaffrey (141)
3. Derrick Henry (138)
4. Najee Harris (138)
5. David Montgomery (131)

Walker has led the league in MTF since he was drafted - thanks to @DaWiz_FFB for the tip-off

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 29, 2024

Fantasy Football Breakouts: Wide Receivers

George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys

This should be fun. Pickens goes from a team that passed on just 51.7% of its offensive plays last season to a team that passed on 61.1% of its offensive plays. He also goes from Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields, and Russell Wilson to Dak Prescott, who has thrown for 260 yards per game in his last four seasons.

The Cowboys have attempted the third-most passes per game in each of the last two seasons. Meanwhile, an Arthur Smith-led Steelers team attempted just 29.4 passes per game in 2024. So we know there will be more opportunities in Dallas, but how many targets will go to Pickens?

CeeDee Lamb is the clear-cut WR1 in Dallas and a top-three receiver in the NFL. There's no arguing that. One might argue that's better for Pickens, who won't see as much attention in coverage with defenses worried about Lamb getting loose. That's a scary thought!

George Pickens pic.twitter.com/ok49KAqIHU

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 9, 2025

Don't get it twisted, despite the character concerns during his time in Pittsburgh, Pickens has been a very productive wide receiver. He's averaged over 2.15 yards per route run (YPRR) in each of the last two seasons and recorded a career-best 26.5% target share last season.

As long as he can keep his head straight, he can produce something similar to that of a guy like Tee Higgins. Higgins, like Pickens, would be a WR1 on most teams. But in Cincinnati, he's the WR2 behind Ja'Marr Chase, just like Pickens is the WR2 behind Lamb.

In Pittsburgh, Pickens has only caught 12 touchdown passes on 293 career targets (4.1%). Meanwhile, Higgins has caught 34 touchdowns on 513 career targets (6.6%).

Don't be surprised when Pickens has by far his best statistical season to date in his first year in Dallas. He's an easy click at his current ADP of WR33. The breakout is upon us.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

Ridley broke out once before, back in 2020. That season, he put up 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns on a career-high 143 targets. Since then, he's battled some off-the-field issues and has been a part of some lackluster offenses with sub-optimal quarterback play.

Despite a 97th-ranked catchable target rate last season (59.2%), Ridley still managed to produce 1,000 yards catching passes from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. In his five-year collegiate career, Titans rookie Cam Ward completed 65% of his passes and threw for 158 touchdowns with just 37 interceptions.

Ward doesn't have to be an elite quarterback in his rookie season; however, he should be an upgrade over Levis and Rudolph. The first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft will undoubtedly have some growing pains, but he managed to set a bunch of passing records at Miami in 2024 despite throwing to a bunch of undrafted wide receivers.

Ward is going to love throwing to Ridley, and Ridley is going to love catching passes from the big-armed number-one overall pick.

Calvin Ridley led the NFL in percentage of his team’s air yards share (44.6%) last year. He now plays with the aggressive and big armed Cam Ward who had 9.8 yards per target in 2024 📈 pic.twitter.com/0MrmeDsyKM

— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) April 25, 2025

Fantasy Football Breakouts: Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

The Jonnu Smith breakout kind of already happened last season. However, I'm keeping him on my list of breakout players for 2025 because I think there's even more room to grow.

In 2024, Smith finished the year as a top-5 tight end, averaging a career-best 13 PPR fantasy points per game. He surpassed 100 targets for the first time in his eight-year NFL career at the ripe age of 29 years old.

He's always been a productive football player, but we had never before seen him produce quite like he did in his first year with the Dolphins. His target share (20%) and YPRR (2.38) were both career highs. He was also fourth among all tight ends in fantasy points per route run.

Most impressive of all, he accumulated these stats on just a 58.7% route participation rate. Both his snap share and route rate grew after the Dolphins' Week 6 bye. In the first five games, Smith played just 38% of the snaps and had a route rate of just 44.6%. That led to just 5.6 fantasy points per game.

After the bye, his snap share and route rate increased to 62% and 65%, respectively.

The increase in opportunity led to a whopping 16.2 fantasy points per game from Week 6 on. No tight end, not even Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, averaged more than 16 fantasy points per game last season.

Tyreek Hill fell off a cliff last year, and Tua Tagovailoa seemed to have found a new favorite check-down maven in Smith. The Dolphins only added Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to the receiver room this offseason, meaning the team is comfortable with a primary corps of Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Smith.

Expect Smith's route participation rate to jump up to 65-70%, and expect him to produce as a top-five tight end in 2025. Right now, you can get Smith with the 96th overall pick in Underdog best ball drafts. Conversely, it'll cost you a top-25 pick to select either Bowers or McBride in 2025.

Smash his name in the eighth or ninth round of your fantasy drafts in 2025 and watch the breakout continue.

Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Engram is gone, and the Jaguars' new brass didn't take a tight end in the 2025 NFL Draft. All they did at the position was add Johnny Mundt (who has never caught more than 19 balls in a season) and Hunter Long (who has eight career receptions).

That leaves Brenton Strange as TE1, likely by a large margin. Remember, Liam Coen is now the head coach in Jacksonville. With Coen as the OC in Tampa Bay in 2024, Cade Otton led all tight ends with a 93% snap share and was second in route participation rate (85.5%).

If that's any indication of Strange's role in the new-look Jaguars offense, that should lead to a massive opportunity for the third-year man out of Penn State. He's not the fastest guy on the field, but Strange is as sure-handed as they come.

Jaguars TE Brenton Strange made a bunch of tough catches with many big hits while fighting for YAC pic.twitter.com/pwlkUXOCr4

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 17, 2024

Last season, he had the sixth-best true catch rate (97.6%) among all tight ends, dropping just one of his 53 targets. He was also 13th in YPRR (1.93), per PlayerProfiler. Now he will have a full-time role in an ascending offense with a chance to be the third-highest target earner on the team.

Like Otton in Tampa Bay or Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia, Strange brings him some massive contingent upside. Should anything happen to Brian Thomas Jr. or Travis Hunter, he could find himself as the second-best option in the passing game on any given Sunday.

In his third NFL season, Otton found himself in a similar situation when Chris Godwin went down and saw more than seven targets in 50% of his games. But even if there are no injuries to the wideouts, Strange still projects as the third option in what should be a much-improved offense under the direction of the new head coach.

There aren't many tight ends with as much upside late in fantasy drafts in 2025 as Strange. Hop on the hype train now before it leaves the station in early September.

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