Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Outlooks for Mark Andrews, Jordan Love, Saquon Barkley, Isaiah Likely, more

September 10, 2024

Kyle's fantasy football sleepers for Week 2 of 2024 based on backfield touches, target shares, and more. Who are the key fantasy football risers and fallers?

Welcome to my new weekly column for the 2024 NFL season! As we wrap up the first week of action, the fantasy football landscape morphs with each game. It's a jungle out there, and staying on top of snap shares in the running back rooms, target distributions among wide receivers, and emerging trends isn't just good practice--it's essential for those looking to dominate their leagues.

This week, we've seen some fascinating shifts in backfield dynamics and WR pecking orders that could signal both opportunities and alarms for fantasy managers. From unexpected workhorses taking the lead in snap counts to sleeper wideouts suddenly capturing a hefty share of their team's targets, the clues to fantasy success lie in these detailed nuances. But it's not just about who's getting the ball; it's about who's doing the most with their opportunities, as that's where the real gold is found.

And let's not forget about the hidden gems lurking on the waiver wire. Players overlooked or written off every week burst onto the scene with performances that demand attention. Identifying these potential breakout candidates before they become hot commodities can give you a crucial edge. So, buckle up, dive into this week’s crucial takeaways, and get ready to make those savvy moves that could lead you to victory in Week 2!

Just Two Quarterbacks Threw for 300+ Yards

Due to the reality of the preseason being shortened coupled with many teams not playing their starters at all for fear of injury, it's pretty safe to say that the defenses are well ahead of the offenses this early in the season. There was sloppy play all over the field and plenty of penalties. If your favorite fantasy targets underperformed in Week 1, it's okay.

Just two quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards in Week 1, the fewest since Week 9 of the 2022 season, and that was with six teams on a bye.

Here is the list of all the quarterback stats from Week 1 (sorted by yardage). Passing was down all across the league, so it's important that we all just take a deep breath and relax. Better days are coming.

How Worried Should We Be for Mark Andrews?

The Baltimore Ravens tight end was overshadowed by teammate Isaiah Likely on opening night of TNF against the Chiefs, leading to many being worried about Andrews' fantasy football outlook for 2024.

Likely finished with 12 targets, good for nine receptions, 111 yards, and a touchdown. He almost had a second one as time expired, but his toe was on the line and the Chiefs escaped with a 27-20 victory on opening night. Andrews, meanwhile, had just two receptions for 14 yards.

Per PFF, Andrews played on 73.7% of the offensive snaps on Thursday night, followed by Likely at 66.3%. Andrews also had a higher route participation rate of 74.5% compared to 68.6% for Likely.

The Ravens' incumbent tight end missed the final six games in 2023 after fracturing his fibula, leading to the NFL banning the hip-drop tackle for 2024. Andrews was also involved in a car accident during training camp. To say he still might need a little time to get completely back up to speed is the understatement of the year.

During the time that Andrews missed, Likely finished the final six games of the 2023 season with 21 receptions for 322 yards and 5 TDs as the Ravens starting tight end.

Now before we all panic, context is everything. The Ravens had to replace three starting offensive linemen in the offseason and the Chiefs have a potent defensive led by interior defensive lineman Chris Jones. When you add in the lack of wide receiver depth for the Ravens, it only makes sense to keep Isaiah Likely on the field to give the offense an extra blocker between him and Andrews.

Re-watched every snap that Mark Andrews was on the field last night. I was the lowest on our show on Andrews coming into the year so I could take a pretend victory lap, but instead, I have a message after watching the film. DO NOT PANIC...here's why:

I added up every… pic.twitter.com/8lOUmbnBf2

— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) September 6, 2024

To help account for their new offensive line changes, Baltimore playing 12-personnel (two tight ends on the field) for the time being makes too much sense. If the Ravens can get Andrews or Likely matched up in the slot against a nickel back or safety, that's a big win for flexibility purposes, especially for a team that wants to get running back Derrick Henry going.

Instead of worrying about Andrews versus Likely, the answer could be both. Wide receiver Zay Flowers saw nine targets on Thursday Night, but no one else outside of Likely and a few dump-offs to running back Justice Hall did much of anything.

Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and T.J. Hockenson were all Top 3 TEs last year in points per game (in half-PPR formats) despite their team’s running 12-personnel at a rate of 26% or more. It's too soon to panic on Andrews, but it’s pretty clear that Likely would be the starting TE for 20-plus other teams across the NFL. That’s a problem that could potentially cap Andrews' upside.

Saquon Barkley Looks Locked in as a Bell-Cow

One of the most hotly debated players of the summer was new Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. After suffering through some bad offenses in the post-Eli Manning era of the Giants, Barkley's efficiency metrics slipped in 2023. Now entering his seventh year in the league, many had figured his best days were behind him, but perhaps they didn't fully factor in how much of an upgrade it was going from the Giants to the Eagles offense.

On Friday night's game in Brazil, Barkley played 80 percent of the Eagles' offensive snaps while rushing 24 times for 109 yards and two TDs on top of catching two passes for 23 yards and another score. Barkley saw all three of the team's goal line rushes and played on 75 percent of third downs. The Eagles tried the infamous tush-push inside the red zone in the second half, but quarterback Jalen Hurts fumbled the snap.

Saquon Barkley is having one of the greatest team debuts of all time.

📺: #GBvsPHI on Peacock pic.twitter.com/Hvx7tUzGkI

— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2024

The only running backs behind Barkley on the depth chart are Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Will Shipley. Given the loss of center Jason Kelce due to retirement, many wondered if the tush-push will be as effective as it's been the last two years.

While it's fair to question just how many goal line rushes Barkley will get this season, he appears like a solid pick at ADP at least after one week simply based on his usage and the overall strength of the Eagles' offense.

Important Target Shares from Week 1

The following pass catchers had the highest target shares from Week 1.

Same data as below for Top 60 PPR WR in Week 1, but with MNF WRs added in https://t.co/73RFsVNXda pic.twitter.com/oCFaSluDnp

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) September 10, 2024

Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua was placed on injured reserve and will unfortunately miss the team's next four games. This definitely means that the arrow will continue to point upward for fellow receiver Cooper Kupp, as long as he can remain healthy as well. Kupp led all players with 21 targets in Week 1.

The Jameson Williams revenge tour continues. After missing most of his rookie season in 2022 recovering from an ACL tear suffered in the college football national championship game and a six-game suspension in 2023 for betting on games, many had written Williams off, but the Lions product kept at it and many in the organization were very impressed with how much he had improved during training camp.

On Sunday Night Football against the Rams, Williams had his best game as a pro with five receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown. He also saw nine targets.

Williams is one of the fastest players in the NFL when he gets out into the open field and has some serious big-play ability. While it's fair to question just how much of a target share he will see consistently week-to-week while competing with the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, the talent is there. Williams remains a boom-or-bust WR3/flex option heading into Week 2, but he's got my attention.

What RBs Were Bell-Cows in Week 1?

Here are the top running back snap shares from Week 1.

Week 1 was a bad week for the running back ageists. Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara all shined and put up solid numbers.

Kamara played just 51.5 percent of the offensive snaps, but it was after being subbed out early in a 47-10 rout over the Carolina Panthers. His workload and usage early in the game suggests another season of solid usage is at hand.

49ers running back Christian McCaffrey was a healthy scratch and was ruled out several hours before kickoff. In his absence, backup Jordan Mason thrived with 28 rush attempts for 147 yards and one TD while also hauling in one pass for five yards. If he wasn't picked up by the McCaffrey manager in your league, Mason is a high-priority waiver add for Week 2.

Jets running back Breece Hall played the majority of the game as well, finishing with 16 rush attempts for 54 yards and one touchdown. He also saw six targets and hauled in five for 39 yards. Hall looks every bit the bell-cow in this Jets' offense and if quarterback Aaron Rodgers can find a way to get going, watch out.

The Browns' Offense Was a Dumpster Fire

While the point of this article is not to make too many drastic conclusions after four quarters, we are unfortunately seeing a different version of Deshaun Watson for the third season in a row. Whoever that guy was who took the NFL by storm in Houston appears to be long gone. It's fair to question if it's mentally related or if Watson is just a bad fit schematically with head coach Kevin Stefanski and what the offense he prefers to run.

After reaching out to NFL.com draft scout and Houston native, Lance Zierlein about Watson last summer, his take was that Watson was better suited for being in a playground type of offense and wasn't a good fit with a more rigid coach like Stefanski who wanted to keep him on script at all times.

Star running back Nick Chubb has started the season on injured reserve and the Browns lost heralded offensive line coach Bill Callahan this offseason as he left for Nashville to join his son Brian in Tennessee. The Browns offense was leaking major oil on Sunday after getting routed by the Cowboys 33-17, a game which wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. Watson was sacked six times and was under duress for much of the game.

Deshaun Watson just had the 6th worst passing game in NFL history with 45 minimum passing attempts. In the entire history of the football. Historically putrid.

— Jamal Johnson (@GPSeeks) September 9, 2024

Tight end David Njoku will miss several games after suffering a high-ankle sprain, which could open things up for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy behind Amari Cooper. However, many of the best receiving games from this team in 2023 came with Joe Flacco at the helm. For now, at least, it feels like there's plenty of room to panic about the Browns offense for fantasy right now.

An Update on Jordan Love and the Packers' Skill Players

Green Packers quarterback Jordan Love suffered a nasty injury near the very end of the first-ever Friday night football game between the Eagles and Packers in Brazil. Love was taken down to the turf by Eagles defensive linemen Jalen Carter and Josh Sweat on a play where you could clearly see his knee buckle, causing everyone in the fantasy community to fear for the worst.

Love being diagnosed with an MCL sprain was probably the best-case outcome given how severe the injury looked at the time, and his injury timeline is currently anywhere from two to six weeks. The good news is the Packers have said that they will not place Love on injured reserve (where he'd have to miss a minimum of four games), but the bad news is that the offense is being turned over to Malik Willis.

With Green Bay having little depth in their backfield, running back Josh Jacobs is still startable in fantasy for the time being, but playing any of the Packers pass-catchers in fantasy could be extremely difficult moving forward until Love returns. Willis was recently traded to the Packers and hasn't had much time to learn the offense. Clifford was waived before the final cuts, but the team signed him back to the practice squad.

As a rookie in 2022, Willis started three games for the Tennessee Titans and was downright abysmal, going 25 of 49 for 234 passing yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Willis is a good athlete who offers some value for fantasy with his legs, but it's fair to question just how viable any of the Packers wide receivers will be with him playing quarterback.

Outside of the deepest of formats, there's a good argument to be made that Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft all belong on your bench until we see something from the offense sans-Love. Jayden Reed is likely still a decent WR3 due to the manufactured touches he tends to receive. Tight end Luke Musgrave can be dropped in all formats after being significantly outplayed and out snapped by Kraft in Week 1.

The Packers' offense could be a little bumpy over the next month, but we should all find a glimmer of hope in the fact that their quarterback wasn't lost for the whole season.

Top Waiver Targets for Week 2

• Jordan Mason, RB - San Francisco 49ers (if still available)
• Tank Bigsby, RB - Jacksonville Jaguars
• Isaiah Likely, TE - Baltimore Ravens
• Bucky Irving, RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Colby Parkinson, TE - Los Angeles Rams
• Alexander Mattison, RB - Las Vegas Raiders

Conclusion

In the fantasy football landscape, we certainly don't want to overreact to Week 1. We want to trust our process and have faith in the team that we drafted. However, to just ignore everything going on around the NFL and not process this new information as it comes would be foolish.

At the same time, if we ignore trends and don't react quickly enough to get ahead of the market, you might be stuck holding a player bag you don't want all season.

Hope you enjoyed this column. Stay tuned each week with all the important nuggets you need to stay ahead of your league mates. Don't forget to follow me on X and as always, thanks for reading! Best of luck to you the rest of the way.

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