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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 on 07/27/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Back with the numbers as UFC's return to the UK is coming into form and there are two title fights and rematches at the top of the pay-per-view card. UFC 304 promises to be an outstanding event that fans won't forget anytime soon. The event will mark the promotion's fifth visit to Manchester, its first since UFC 204 in October 2016, and UFC's first show in the UK since July 2023.
In the main event at the Co-Op Live Stadium on Saturday, UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards will face Belal Muhammad in a rematch from their controversial UFC Vegas 21 bout. Meanwhile, the co-main event will feature another English fighter, UFC interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, who is set to defend his title against Curtis Blaydes. UFC 304 is a stacked card, with Paddy Pimblett, Molly McCann, Manel Kape, and Muhammad Mokaev also in action.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 on 07/27/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Leon Edwards, $8,800 - vs. Belal Muhammad
Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad are set to fight for a second time in the main event of this Saturday's stacked UFC 304 card in Manchester, England. It was the main event of UFC Vegas 21 in the APEX back in March 2021. That bout ended in a disappointing no-contest due to an accidental eye poke by Edwards, leaving fans and fighters alike with a sense of unfinished business. The first fight between Edwards and Muhammad wasn't initially supposed to happen as Edwards was scheduled to take on Khamzat Chimaev.
YOU DON'T WANT TO MISS OUT ON THIS‼️@Leon_EdwardsMMA vs @BullyB170
[ SAT on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET/7pmPT | #UFC304 ] pic.twitter.com/gOG5Z5TQBB
— UFC (@ufc) July 25, 2024
After his UFC Vegas 21 bout, Edwards defeated Nate Diaz. Then, a little over a year after his fight with Muhammad, Edwards claimed the welterweight belt with an incredible last-minute head-kick knockout of Kamaru Usman. In the immediate rematch, Edwards beat Usman to earn himself a majority decision victory. He defended his title for the second time when he defeated Colby Covington at UFC 296. Edwards is closing in on nine years without a loss and is on a 12-fight winning streak.
Just like Edwards, Muhammad has been on a roll. He's on a nine-fight winning streak and a 10-fight unbeaten streak. After his first bout with Edwards, Muhammad went on a five-fight winning streak. In his last few fights, we have seen him overcome tough opponents like Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, Demian Maia, Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, and Vicente Luque. Known for his incredible cardio, pressure fighting, and wrestling ability, Muhammad is a tough matchup for anyone standing across from him.
Muhammad is landing 4.55 significant strikes per minute inside the Octagon, compared to Edwards who is landing 2.75. While Muhammad lands more overall, his accuracy rate is only 43%, while Edwards is 53%. When we look at who absorbs more shots, it's Muhammad who absorbs 3.64 significant strikes per minute compared to the champion's 2.34. Muhammad's edge is going to come in terms of pace and wrestling while Edwards will have an edge in the striking department.
Muhammad will be looking to take Edwards to the canvas and dominate there, but I don’t see Muhammad being able to impose his game against Edwards, who has gotten the best of better wrestlers in the past few years. Edwards is the more polished, technical striker, and he has a significant advantage in terms of knockout power. He should be able to keep Muhammad at range and dictate the pace of this fight. I predict Edwards is going to knock out Muhammad in the third or fourth round.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tom Aspinall, $9,400 - vs. Curtis Blaydes
UFC interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall will make the first defense of his title in his home city of Manchester this Saturday. He is scheduled for a rematch with Curtis Blaydes in the co-main event on Saturday at UFC 304. Aspinall and Blaydes met at UFC London in 2022 when Blaydes came out on top after Aspinall suffered a knee injury just 15 seconds into the fight. Since then, Aspinall has been dominant en route to claiming the interim heavyweight title against Sergei Pavlovich. Blaydes has gone 1-1 since their last battle, suffering a knockout loss to Sergei Pavlovich before beating Jailton Almeida by TKO at UFC 299 in March.
Aspinall is a heavy favorite in this fight, coming from back-to-back dominant showings. In his last bout against Pavlovich at UFC 295, Aspinall won via knockout in the first round, claiming the interim title. Before his bout against Pavlovich, Aspinall TKO'd Marcin Tybura in the main event of UFC Fight Night 224. Even though he's a well-rounded fighter, Aspinall is primarily known for his striking ability. He has secured all 14 of his career victories by knockout, TKO, or submission.
After losing to Lewis via second-round TKO, Blaydes went on a three-fight winning streak, defeating Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Chris Daukaus, and Aspinall. Blaydes is an exceptional athlete for a heavyweight and a quality wrestler, but he hasn't looked that great since his fight with Aspinall. He was knocked out by Pavlovich, which snapped his winning streak. He was then dominated for five-plus minutes by Almeida before he managed to turn the fight around and finish the bout via second-round TKO.
It won't be easy to take Aspinall down, and if Blaydes stands with Aspinall for too long, he will get knocked out. It's no secret that Blaydes will look to take this fight to the ground and look for a way to finish Aspinall there. I think Blaydes will take Aspinall down but won't be able to hold him on the ground for too long. Blaydes is going to struggle with the hand speed of Aspinall. Seven of Aspinall's last eight fights have ended with a knockout, and I think Aspinall will knock out Blaydes in the second round.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gregory Rodrigues, $7,900 - vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
The second fight on the Main Card at UFC 304 will see Christian Leroy Duncan take on Gregory Rodrigues. The former Cage Warriors Middleweight Champion was originally set to meet Robert Bryczek at the Co-op Live Arena, but Bryczek has been forced to withdraw from the contest. Both fighters enter their matchup on two-fight knockout win streaks on the verge of breaking into the divisional rankings with fan-friendly fight styles. The two finishers were originally expected to lock horns on the prelims but were promoted to the pay-per-view main card during fight week. This is the first time both middleweights will be on a PPV main card.
Duncan managed to win his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic, but then lost via unanimous decision to Armen Petrosyan. Since his loss to Petrosyan, Duncan has got back on track by knocking out Denis Tiuliulin and Claudio Ribeiro, both in the second round. Just like Duncan, Rodrigues faced off against Todorovic in his UFC debut. Other than his debut against Todorovic, Rodrigues has won all his UFC fights via TKO. He is 6-2 in the UFC with five finishes. Duncan is still a slight favorite on home soil, but this is certainly a tougher fight.
Concerning significant strikes, Duncan connects on 5.96 per minute while Rodrigues connects on 6.08 significant strikes per minute. Duncan is absorbing 3.82 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. On the other hand, Rodrigues' striking accuracy is 55%. He is absorbing 5.30 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. When addressing the grappling of these two warriors, Rodrigues is, without a doubt, a better grappler. I just don't think he'll go for a takedown in this fight.
Though Rodrigues does not use it a lot, his ground game solidifies himself as a well-rounded prospect. If Rodrigues is willing to mix it up, he has a great chance of winning. That being said, it's evident that Rodrigues likes to brawl. Although he has improved his striking, I would still give an edge to Duncan in that department. While Duncan has impressive knockout power, this is a massive step up in competition. I think the underdog gets this done. I have a feeling Rodrigues is going to take Duncan down at some point and finish him via TKO.
