Florio's Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Figuring Out Mets, Blue Jays, and Other Confusing Bullpens

June 6, 2024

Michael reviews fantasy baseball closers to add off the waiver wire for saves in Week 11 (2024), changing bullpens, and relief pitcher risers with elite ratios.

Every week gives us some sort of meaningful bullpen information. But few weeks have as impactful news as this past one. We saw one of the first relievers drafted land on the IL while the rest of his bullpen was a mess. We also saw another big name, a proven closer, land on the IL. 

For those of you in need of saves, this is a week to strike. Even if the player you pick up is only the closer for a couple of weeks, every save helps. Injuries and trades are the only hope you have of finding a long-term solution at the position. But having a Band-Aid, even if only for a bit, allows you to stay afloat in the category. A handful of saves could be the difference of a couple of points in your roto standings -- and I do not need to explain how valuable that is. 

Plus, as we near the trade deadline and as reliable starting pitchers are becoming harder and harder to find with injuries piling up, many non-closer relievers can be very utilized in fantasy baseball. Either to try and get out in front of trades and land a future closer before any more are made. Or to use in place of a low-end starter that will give you similar innings in a given week but with elite ratios and strikeouts. 

Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

No bullpen has undergone more changes in the last week than the Mets. Their star closer, Edwin Diaz, landed on the IL with a shoulder impingement. Jorge Lopez, who brought closer experience and was a late-inning arm for the Mets, had a whole big issue that led to him being released. This is a bullpen in turmoil. 

I had been advocating Reed Garrett as the top pickup here and continue to stand by that, but the Mets clearly will mix and match with a number of different options. In the last week, Garrett and Jake Diekman have each picked up a save, while Diekman and Adam Ottavino each blew one. It appears that these three will heavily be in the mix until at least Diaz returns or they are traded as the Mets are quickly falling out of the race.

Garrett has been the best of the bunch this year in terms of ratios and strikeouts. While he has come back to earth a bit, he is still my favorite of the bunch. But Diekman clearly needs to be rostered and started if you are in need of saves. I would look to spend 5-8 percent of my FAAB on him. Ottavino is a fallback option for those in deeper leagues. 

Jake Diekman with the strikeout to finish the save and the Mets win! pic.twitter.com/S9VF21pZkF

— SNY (@SNYtv) June 4, 2024

The Blue Jays had to put Jordan Romano on the IL with an elbow injury -- the same one that cost him time to start the season. This is officially an issue for the dominant closer. At the start of the season, we saw Yimi Garcia and Chad Green split save chances. I would expect that to be the case once again, but I have a heavy lean toward Garcia. Not only have I been advocating to add him for weeks, but there is a case to be made that he has been the best reliever so far this season. 

#BlueJays closer Jordan Romano got an anti-inflammatory shot to his right elbow.

He had one in spring, too, when he hit the IL then. He'll avoid throwing for 3-5 days and go from there...

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) June 3, 2024

Garcia has pitched to a 1.57 ERA, 1.88 xERA, and 0.74 WHIP with a 34 percent strikeout rate. Green has been very solid himself, but a 1.69 ERA, 5.01 xERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 23 percent strikeout rate just fails in comparison. Garcia is the top reliever pickup of the week if he is still out there in your league and I would spend 10-15 percent of my FAAB to get him if I needed saves. Green is the much cheaper fallback option, but he is worth taking a shot on as he easily could see some save chances if Garcia is used in high-leverage situations. 

While other teams were losing their closers, the Dodgers got theirs back. Evan Phillips is back and has already picked up a save for the Dodgers. The bulk of the chances should once again go his way and he is a must-start fantasy option as long as he is closing games for arguably the best team in baseball. Daniel Hudson remains next in line and provides elite strikeouts and ratios if you want to hold onto him.

Evan Phillips returned last night and, with his first three pitches, promptly struck out Elehuris Montero. After inducing a whiff on the first pitch, he dotted the outside corner with a 97 MPH fastball, then tunneled a vicious sweeper to get Montero to chase.

Electric sequence: pic.twitter.com/Qvyz0QM9I4

— Positive Residual (@presidual) June 2, 2024

The Rays only had one save in the last week and it went to Pete Fairbanks. He is once again a must-start fantasy asset as the Rays have exclusively been saving him for the ninth inning (or extras). While he may not be as untouchable as he has been in years past, he is still sporting strong ratios with a 3.71 ERA, 3.31 xERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a 26 percent strikeout rate. Jason Adam is an option here that continues to provide strong ratios and is a late-inning arm Tampa can trust. If anything happens to Fairbanks, he would be next in line, although he may split opportunities. 

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball 

You know I have to write about my favorite bullpen, the Phillies! In the last week, they have picked up two saves, with one going to Jeff Hoffman and one to Jose Alvarado. On the season, Alvarado has 10 saves to Hoffman’s five. But since May 1, it is five for Alvarado and three for Hoffman, showing that there’s more of a split as of late. Hoffman has been the better pitcher of the two, posting absolutely elite ratios. He has a 1.01 ERA, 2.30 xERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 32 percent strikeout rate. I have been advocating to add him for weeks now. Hopefully, you listened because this bullpen now has two must-start relievers. 

Trevor Megill took a liner off the elbow, and in his next outing, we saw him pitch in the seventh inning for the Brewers. In the last week, Enoli Paredes and Elvis Peguero picked up the saves for the Brew Crew. Still, I see no reason to doubt that Megill is the closer for the Brewers moving forward. If anything was to happen to him, Peguero seems like next in line. That is until Devin Williams returns sometime after the All-Star break. 

James McArthur has been a good story this season for the Royals, who find themselves sitting as the second wild card in the AL as of now. He has 11 saves but blew his lone opportunity in the last week. On the year, he now has a 5.11 ERA, 4.21 xERA, 1.42 WHIP, and a 21 percent strikeout rate. He is worth rostering as long as he is getting the save chances, but this is at least somewhat worrisome. Chris Stratton seems like the best replacement option, but he has struggled this year as well, also having an ERA over 5.00. John Schreiber has been the best of their late-inning arms, and they also have Will Smith, who has closer experience. Do not count out the team making a trade if it remains in contention. This is a bullpen to keep a close eye on the next few weeks. 

The Tigers did not pick up a save in the last week. More frustratingly, we have seen Jason Foley pitch the eighth inning a number of times. My read on this is that the Tigers just have not had save chances, so they are using their best reliever when they see fit. I would not panic on Foley yet; in fact, if the manager with him is starting to worry, I would try to acquire him now while his value is perceived as down. Andrew Chafin and Alex Faedo are options in case Foley loses the gig, but I think that is very premature at this point. 

Fastest pitch thrown today by any pitcher of the game was a 97.8 MPH 4-seam fastball from #Tigers Jason Foley to #RedSox David Hamilton for a foul. pic.twitter.com/CQRqw5DSNL

— Red Sox Nation Stats (@RSNStats) June 1, 2024

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball

Jeremiah Estrada leads all qualified relievers with a 51 percent strikeout rate since May 1. In that span, he has pitched to a 0.68 ERA with a 0.60 WHIP. Batters have hit just .109 against him and the only runs have come off the long ball. He is absolutely dominating right now. While he will not get you many save chances, if any, the strikeouts and ratios are elite. 

Alex Vesia has the fifth-highest strikeout rate amongst relievers since May 1 at 42 percent. He has a 0.79 ERA and 0.35 WHIP while batters have hit just .029 against him in that span. His WHIP is the best among any qualified reliever in that period. Not only that, but we have seen him pick up two saves this season. He will not get consistent save chances, but he is in the late-inning mix for the Dodgers, arguably the best team in the game. That makes him worth a shot if you are in need of a reliever to stabilize your ratios. 

Matt Strahm may not get save chances for the Phillies, but he does continue to provide elite numbers otherwise. Since May 1, he has a 0.54 WHIP, the fifth best among relievers. He has not allowed a run in that span, struck out 40 percent of the batters he has faced, and limited hitters to just a .116 average and a 4 percent walk rate. Outside of the no saves, he is elite and one of the best relievers in the game right now. 

Nick Martinez has thrown a 0.54 WHIP, the same as Strahm, with a 0.54 ERA and 25 percent strikeout rate since May 1. While Alexis Diaz has settled down more as of late, he still is known for the occasional blowup. If he were to struggle, Martinez could quickly enter the saves mix. And if all else fails, he provides you with elite ratios. 

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio. 

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