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Ellis' NFL analysis for WR two's who have a back up QB under centre. From Week 14 on, these players may make or break your fantasy playoff run.
This year has been a mess at the QB position. It seems like a record amount of starting QBs have gone down, severely limiting the fantasy options that rely on their production.
With Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Daniel Jones done for the season, the additional injuries of Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, and Trevor Lawrence couldn’t come at a worse time.
Many of these teams have multiple fantasy players who have been sitting on your benches for most of the season. However, with some names returning, it’s time to reevaluate what to expect from these players. In this article, I am going to discuss some key second options that are relying on these backups to produce.
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Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Benglas
In my opinion, the most intriguing second option with a backup QB is Higgins. This is partly because he is coming off an injury of his own. It’s also because Jake Browning was shot out of a cannon last Monday and posted one of the best QB stat lines of the season, finishing 32/37 for 354 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, and a rushing score.
The week before, Browning struggled against a Steelers’ defense that just allowed Bailey Zappe to have a career game. However, I’m optimistic that the true Browning is closer to what we saw against the Jaguars than the Steelers.
If you have followed Browning’s career, there have been signs that he could potentially be an NFL starting QB. Now he is surrounded by an elite skill group with Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon. Chase has single-handedly been on a mission to keep this offense afloat without Joe Burrow and now Tee Higgins is back.
Last week, Higgins looked fully healthy, catching all three of his targets for 35 yards. Browning spread the ball all game with five players having over four receptions. However, where Higgins stands out is his potential ability in the Red Zone. If Browining is trusted more in the Red Zone, Higgins and Chase should be the primary beneficiaries.
I expect Higgins to find his way into the high-end WR-three mix (WR 25-30). I would expect four receptions for 50 yards each week, with a solid touchdown upside. I would start him over Terry McLaurin and Tyler Lockett most weeks.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson is back and so is Joshua Dobbs under center. This Vikings team has managed to keep their head above water this season, and now one of the league’s best WRs is back.
We have a large sample size of Dobbs this season, however, that doesn’t bode well for Addison. This season Dobbs has targetted the TE position at one of the highest rates in the league. Outside of the TE position, only one receiving option has been supported by Dobbs.
In his last two starts, there have been seven players seeing at least two targets. If T.J. Hockenson continues to see 10-plus targets, and Jefferson steps into a similar role, it’s hard to see Addison having the volume to produce for fantasy. He can always break a big play, but with the emergence of Brandon Powell and a consistent veteran like K.J. Osborn, I wouldn’t view Addison as more than a weekly dart throw in the right matchup for the rest of the year.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickens has had a quietly impressive season. Having four or more targets and 75% of snaps or more in every game this season says a lot about his development as a young WR. In Dynasty, you have to be thrilled about what you have seen from the walking highlight reel.
This week the big play WR had a very weird week with Mitch Trubisky under center. Catching five of his six targets, he only managed 19 yards. Considering he has seven games averaging 11 or more yards per reception, that’s an outlier.
However, that’s the only full game we have with Trubisky. The Steelers want to keep the play-calling conservative with him under center. It is also clear that they view Diontae Johnson as their clear top WR, taking both of the team's deep shots in his direction (including on the final play of the game). Although the Patriots don’t have a shutdown corner (since losing Christian Gonzalez), this could be a result of play-calling rather than matchup.
If Pickett returns shortly, I would view Pickens closer to an upside WR3. If Trubisky continues to be under center he slides outside of my top 36 regardless of matchup. The only good news is that he is consistently seeing enough targets to break a big play any given week.
Rankings These Wide Receivers
To finish this article, I want to rank these three WRs. For me, Higgins is first not only because of his talent but there is a world where Browning can continue to stay hot. Next, I would play Pickens due to his locked-in target share. Lastly, I would rank Addison due to target competition and because he plays with a QB who isn’t afraid to run.
Thank you for reading my work.
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