Sal Frelick: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

July 26, 2023

Is Sal Frelick a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Frelick's 2023 fantasy value.

MLB debuts are always exciting, and fantasy managers dream about memorable performances. Unfortunately, we get a lot of 0-for-4s for our trouble. Sal Frelick had other ideas when he made his big league debut against Atlanta on national TV though, going a perfect 3-for-3 with game-tying and game-winning RBIs.

Frelick has considerable prospect pedigree, being drafted 15th overall in the 2021 amateur draft and ranking as MLB Pipeline's 17th-best prospect at the time of his call-up. His minor league performance also suggests that he's ready to do what he does at the MLB level.

However, that doesn't mean Frelick is the right fit for every fantasy roster. Let's explore what Frelick can and cannot do as we contemplate his fantasy value.

The Scouting Report on Sal Frelick

Growing up in Massachusetts, Frelick was a three-sport star and could have pursued baseball, football, or hockey at the collegiate level. He chose baseball, and scouts thought he possessed significant growth potential coming out of a cold-weather state and focusing on the diamond exclusively. The Brewers selected him in the middle of the first round to try and capitalize on that potential.

Frelick has, though not in the way some may have hoped. Per MLB Pipeline, Frelick has a 70-grade hit tool with 70 wheels on the 20-80 scouting scale, making him look something like a leadoff guy from the 1980s. His short, compact swing makes him extremely difficult to strikeout. He's also developed outstanding knowledge of the strike zone, making him a threat to work a walk every time up.

Scouts were hoping for some pop to develop though, and that hasn't happened. Per MLB Pipeline, "(Frelick) may not have the over-the-fence to challenge 15 HR in the majors." Frelick's power grade is 45, and that's an optimistic assessment compared to other sources.

For instance, FanGraphs gives Frelick 30 game power (35 in the future) and 45 raw power (both now and in the future), noting that he lacks the frame to project power growth while currently lacking a power element. With 55-grade hit (60 in the future) and 60-grade speed, FanGraphs still ranks Frelick as the third-best prospect in Milwaukee's system and 68th overall, noting an upside that looks like Brandon Nimmo.

Frelick has the physical tools to be an elite defensive outfielder but consistently takes poor routes, giving him something else to work on. If he ends up as a viable centerfielder, there would be less pressure on his bat to develop pop.

Sal Frelick on the Farm

Last season was Frelick's first full season in pro ball, and he established himself as his draft class's fastest riser by climbing from High-A to Triple-A. More impressively, he improved his K% and batting average every time he moved up the ladder.

When Frelick reached Double-A (Biloxi), he hit a robust .317/.380/.464 with five homers and nine steals over 253 PAs. His 6.5 SwStr% supported his 13 K%, which he more than offset with a 7.9 BB%. He also put a lot of balls into play, propping up his average with a .351 BABIP. Neither his 34 FB% nor his 7.7% HR/FB hinted at much power, but he was only thrown out twice on the bases for a success rate of 82%.

The performance earned Frelick a ticket to Triple-A (Nashville), where he hit .365/.435/.508 with four homers and nine steals over 217 PAs. His 8.8 BB% exceeded his 7.4 K%, suggesting perfect mastery of the strike zone that most major leaguers never achieve. His SwStr% fell to 5.1, suggesting his plate discipline metrics were no fluke.

Frelick also hit fewer fly balls with a 26 FB%, allowing his BABIP to increase to .382. The lost flies make it even harder to project power from Frelick, but his 8.9% HR/FB at hitter-friendly Triple-A strongly suggests there's little power to tap into anyway. Frelick was caught stealing three times for a success rate of 75%.

Sadly, Frelick's 2023 season was derailed by a torn UCL in his left thumb that required surgical repair, so he only had 183 PAs on the farm. It's possible the injury hampered his performance as well, as he hit just .247/.333/342 with two homers and eight steals for Nashville. A .266 BABIP was a big reason why, though it's worth noting his 10.4 BB% again exceeded his 9.8 K%, his 30.7 FB% was quite low, and he got his SwStr% down to 4%.

Frelick was caught stealing four times at Triple-A this year, leading to a worrisome 67% success rate. Still, his previous success should give him a chance to run with the Brewers.

Frelick doesn't have a huge MiLB resume, but he's proven very strong contact skills and an excellent plate approach. Both tend to translate very well to the MLB level, so Frelick should be a good source of average, OBP, and steals right away. However, power is unlikely both this year and in the future.

The Fantasy Viability of Sal Frelick

Most major projection systems see Frelick hitting .260 with a couple of homers and a handful of steals over the rest of the season, but the production is tied to a BABIP in the .290 range. This author sees above-average speed and a batted ball profile with lots of grounders, so a BABIP between .310 and .320 seems more realistic. That should make Frelick a .280 hitter with some steals.

Frelick debuted hitting sixth in Milwaukee's lineup, but his strong debut led to a cleanup assignment in his second game. Nothing in his profile suggests long-term viability as the cleanup hitter, but the promotion after a single game makes it likely that Frelick could hit his way into an important role. Naturally, that would improve his run and RBI projections.

We know more about the 23-year-old Frelick than most hitters his age, which means your standings page will determine whether you should roster him. If you need a boost in average, OBP, or steals, Frelick is a Champ who should be rostered in more than 26% of Yahoo! leagues. If HR and RBI are your primary concern, Frelick is best left on waivers.

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