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Justin Carter looks at three NFL running backs who should see fewer touches in 2023. These players are potentially overvalued in fantasy football drafts.
NFL free agency and the draft have reshaped position groups across the league. One of those groups that has really been shaken up is the running back position.
And with those shake-ups comes the inevitable: with new players entering the league and old players changing teams, some guys are going to end up seeing their usage go down. It happens to everyone -- that's just how professional sports work, you know?
Below are three veteran running backs who should lose touches in 2023, with an analysis of why their touches will be down.
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Derrick Henry - Tennessee Titans
You know what? Let's start out with a big name -- last year's rushing carry leader, Derrick Henry.
It seems like projecting Henry to sleep has become a yearly trend, and I'm definitely guilty of participating in that trend. But I think we've finally reached the point where "Henry loses a step" goes from being theoretical to being an actual thing we see on the football field.
The numbers suggest we've already started to get there. In 2020, Henry rushed for a league-high 2,027 yards on 378 carries with 17 touchdowns. Let's ignore 2021 since he played just eight games and zoom ahead to 2022. He led the league in carries again with 349, but didn't come close to 2,000 yards, with 1,538 and 13 touchdowns.
The scoring was still there, but his yards per carry were down a full yard from 2020. He finished with under 100 yards per game for the first time since 2018, though a career-high 24.9 receiving yards per game helped make up for that.
There have been trade rumors with Henry this offseason, but let's work under the assumption he remains in Tennessee. He's coming off his worst year on a per-game basis since before he turned into the monster that is Derrick Henry, and the Titans used a third-round pick on running back Tyjae Spears. A third-round pick isn't expected to step in and be a starter, but you also don't just draft a running back that high and not use him. Spears being in the mix plus last year's fourth-rounder Hassan Haskins should mean a little less of Henry.
This isn't to say Henry's not a strong fantasy option, though. He's still a solid fantasy RB1, but I don't think he'll be the clear top-five fantasy back that he's been the past few seasons.
Jamaal Williams - New Orleans Saints
It was great to see Jamaal Williams find success last year in Detroit. He had a career-high 262 carries, 109 more than his previous high, and he found the end zone an NFL-best 17 times on the ground. Before 2022, Williams had never recorded more than four rushing touchdowns in a season. Now, he heads to the Saints, where it just doesn't feel like he's going to have the same number of touches available to him.
Last season, the Lions and the Saints were really, really close to each other in rushing attempts. Detroit was 13th in the NFL with 480, and the Saints were 14th with 465.
In Detroit, Williams had the clear lead in the backfield, with 262 carries to just 99 for D'Andre Swift, while Justin Jackson added 42. In New Orleans, Alvin Kamara controlled the backfield, carrying the ball 223 times. Taysom Hill was second in carries with 96, then Mark Ingram II had 62 carries.
See the problem here? Williams, a 200-plus carry running back, joins an offense that has a 200-plus carry running back. And there's not some big disparity in these offenses where you can say "Well, the Saints run so much more than the Lions, it'll be fine."
Nope. Something's got to give. Williams might get the bulk of the red zone opportunities to take advantage of his ability to pick up tough yards and get into the end zone, but there's just no way he gets anywhere close to 262 carries as long as Kamara is on this team.
Of course, this all changes if Kamara is suspended since he's facing the possibility of that. But even in that case, Williams will split some duties with third-round pick Kendre Miller. So no Kamara would get Williams closer to his usage level last year, but it still likely doesn't get him all the way there.
Travis Etienne Jr. - Jacksonville Jaguars
I'm not saying Etienne falls off the map in 2023 or anything, but it was definitely a curious offseason in Jacksonville when it comes to the running back position.
Last season, Etienne finished 13th in the NFL in rushing attempts with 220 and was ninth in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,125. Not bad considering he was coming off a Lisfranc injury that cost him his 2021 season.
At the beginning of the season, Etienne shared the backfield with James Robinson. Robinson was traded to the Jets midseason, and from there it was all Etienne. Over the final 10 games, he averaged 15.2 carries per game.
But, uhh...it looks like the Jags don't want it to be all Etienne in the backfield going forward.
Back in March, the team added D'Ernest Johnson in free agency. Johnson barely played last year for Cleveland, but he looked like a solid NFL rotational back in 2o21, carrying the ball 100 times for 534 yards and three touchdowns.
But whatever -- that's a depth signing. It doesn't mean much for Etienne. Maybe he gets a couple fewer carries per game to keep him fresh, but Johnson alone doesn't change his outlook.
Then came the draft, where the Jaguars used a third-round pick on Auburn's Tank Bigsby. Again, not some nail in the coffin for Etienne, but Bigsby was a really good back in college and found the end zone 20 times over his final two seasons. Considering Etienne only had five touchdowns last year despite 45 red zone touches, I have some concerns that this might take Etienne off the floor in some high-value situations.
Again, I still think this is Etienne's backfield, but the offseason moves were curious. He could definitely lose enough touches to impact his fantasy value. If the Jaguars hadn't done anything this offseason at running back, I would have viewed Etienne as a low-end RB1. Now, I think of him as a high-end RB2. It's not a huge change, but sometimes in fantasy, those small changes can make all the difference.
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