RADIO
Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of running backs to assess their situations for fantasy football. Should we bail on these backs who are falling fast in ADP?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Fallers
Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are going to create a battle to see who earns the RB1 role in their backfield, according to HC Pete Carroll following Seattle's selection of rookie Zach Charbonnet in the last draft. Of course, Walker is the "veteran" in the rushing unit of the Seahawks, but there are reasons for concern and they are showing in KW3's ADP fall of more than a full round and a half in the past two weeks.
Walker is the strongest player of the two and preferable in bull-rushing actions and plays, but Charbonnet should edge him on pass plays thanks to his better all-around skill set. On top of that, Seattle drafted another rusher in the seventh round, Kenny McIntosh, who fell mightily and was considered a steal.
The backfield is, simply put, hella crowded entered training camp. Even if Walker retains the RB1 role as the most experienced of this trio of players, odds are he ends up losing touches if only because of the abundance of options present in the Seahawks' offense. Yes, offense.
I said that because Seattle also drafted WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba with a first-round pick to throw him on the field along with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, which doesn't bode well for the running-back unit.
Walker finished 2022 as a RB2-level rusher with 202.5 PPR points for an 18th finish at the position. He racked up 1,050 rushing yards with 9 TDs while also catching 25-of-37 passes for an extra 165 yards, though he failed to score a receiving touchdown on those chances. The ADP sat at 61st-OVR last summer and KW3 finished as the 59th-best player overall in PPR formats for a very even ROI. Unless it falls way below the current 40th-ish position, I'd fade Walker entering next season.
Kareem Hunt, Free Agent
The latest news involving Kareem Hunt's free agency mentioned the Denver Broncos as a potential suitor for the former Cleveland Browns player, reported ESPN'S Jeremy Fowler on May 7. We had not heard that much before that piece of news, and we haven't heard any remarkable rumors ever since.
Hunt, mind you, is a legitimate candidate to take on an RB2 role with upside for RB1 production, although it might take a bit for him to rebuild the trust of the coaching staff that grabs his talents after his 2022 season. The Broncos were mentioned in that report as a "team to watch" but it's hard to see them signing Hunt as they already have Javonte Williams in tow while the franchise also signed veteran Samaje Perine earlier this offseason.
The Browns are moving on from Hunt and betting everything on Nick Chubb, so don't expect a re-signing here unless Hunt just accepts to return to Cleveland for peanuts. Hunt is "only" 28 years old, which might actually be old for a rusher while still young overall. Hunt struggled a bit last season dropping his FPPG average from 13.8 two seasons ago to just 7.5 last season.
Hunt was never going to trump Chubb in the pecking order of the Browns' backfield and his production went down from the first half of last year to the second one.
Hunt's ADP already tanked last summer, going from 58th-OVR to 89th-OVR in the last two offseasons, and this year things are looking even worse for him. Of course, that's good news for fantasy GMs willing to take a flier on him and see what might come up next in free agency and once the ball gets rolling in September.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Nothing has changed in Baltimore's backfield compared to last year. Dobbins is still the RB1 along with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill taking on secondary duties. The problem with this trio, of course, is that all of them missed the 2021 season entirely because of injuries, and all of the hype they had been building for a while didn't quite pan out in the 2022 campaign.
Dobbins finished last year as the 57th-best rusher in PPR leagues, Edwards ranked 66th, and Hill finished as just the 82nd-best running back in such a format. Dobbin's ADP last summer was a high 60th-OVR pick but he could only put up the 215th "highest" fantasy production among all eligible fantasy football players. No bueno.
Of course, fantasy GMs seem to have learned the lesson and now know that maybe that top-24 season Dobbins had as a rookie was a bit more of a fluke than a real thing with upside for a big improvement going forward. This looks (once more) like a partially split backfield with no clear go-to guy in the vein of not featuring a bonafide, legitimate, surefire top-tier producer if only because of a lack of a huge volume of touches and opportunities.
Not only that, but the Ravens focused their offseason on dealing with Lamar Jackson's saga, making room for his hefty new contract, and appeasing him by signing Odell Beckham Jr., drafting Zay Flowers, and adding Nelson Agholor to bolster a receiving corps already boasting top-level TE Mark Andrews.
It's all pass, no rush (other than Lamar's own) in the BTL, I'm afraid. That said, Dobbins has the chops to put up numbers when given the chance (10.2 FPPG and 0.81 FP/Opp) so if the ADP craters and falls even more he might be a good mid/late-round pick for fantasy GMs looking to build a deep roster with plug-and-play options available on a weekly basis.
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