RADIO
A modest 10-game slate Wednesday and since re-formatting this article, a few lines have already jumped with two surging over the 240-point mark (UTA @ MEM dropped back down to 239.5 since apparently, I write incredibly slow.) Regardless, Charlotte versus San Antonio and Memphis versus Utah will retain ridiculously high point-totals for good reason.
At this point and time, not a single one of those teams is putting forth a quality defensive effort consistently. Walker Kessler is the only player out of all four teams that has the capabilities to impact the game defensively and against Ja Morant, being defensive-minded can end poorly.
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SAS @ CHA
LaMelo Ball (CHA) MORE 25.5 Points ‒Keldon Johnson (SAS) MORE 24.5 Points
Gordon Hayward’s return hasn’t had any negative impact on the Hornets’ starters production and if anything, he’s helped their stat lines these last few games. After posting 30 points and 15 assist against the Hawks, LaMelo Ball has increased upside against an inexperienced Spurs roster, although he’s only scored over 25 points in two out of his last five matchups. Betting on his scoring will be more of a crapshoot even with little reason to think the Spurs can keep him from having a 30 point night. It just might not be needed.
Keldon Johnson is either being showcased for potential off-season moves or is on the cusp of a VWI (A Victor Wembanyama Injury.) Either way, his days are limited and we need to capitalize if this is his last game before the Spurs start their tank. He is physically uncapable of not playing aggressively and his consistency scoring is something a winning Spurs team could really benefit from. San Antonio is 2-18 over their last 20 games and Johnson has scored at least 18 points in every game he’s played 30 minutes or more in throughout that span. Even when the Spurs play bad, Johnson finds a way to make the most of his run.
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NYK @ ATL
Jalen Brunson (NYK) MORE 26.5 Points – Trae Young (ATL) MORE 26.5 Points
About time we have Jalen Brunson’s name up here. Betting on Julius Randle will grey some hairs and MonkeyKnifeFight knew exactly what they were doing putting his name up there for every Knicks game. Back to Brunson, who has scored 27 points or more in five of his last seven games and we can assume playing Atlanta will only boost his upside with how bad their defense has been. Playing the Hawks is metaphorically like a Hot Wheels speed-boosting mechanism for opposing players stats.
We need a larger sample size for Trae Young to understand how well he is playing currently, but it ultimately doesn’t matter. His role in the offense is as a secondary scorer that initiates the offense. That might not make sense, but watching the Hawks offense, he’s not living and dying by the green-light anymore. He’s much more team-oriented and although he will shoot, the shots are much more thought out and they are coming as the result of ball-movement, not just isolation dribbling. Young's assist props are in grave danger, but scoring wise, you need the rest of the Hawks to be missing so Young becomes the primary scoring threat, not just primary playmaker.
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MIA @ BKN
Jimmy Butler (MIA) MORE 22.5 Points – Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN) MORE 19.5 Points
The current Heat rotation is ugly, but that’s not a guarantee that Jimmy Butler is, or is even going to be their leading scorer each night. He should, but that’s not exactly how he operates as a player and that matters every time we even consider betting on him. The Brooklyn Nets don’t offer a ton of defense, but Nic Claxton gets better every game and their roster consists of some hybrid combination defenders like Royce O’Neale and Dorian Finney-Smith. The defense is there, but then that brings up the conversation, ‘how much does that really matter to Jimmy Butler?’ As long as he doesn’t have anyone like Kevin Durant to defend his effort will be on offense.
Spencer Dinwiddie was traded to the Nets and immediately became their best player. Until his line moves to 21 or 22 points, you have to take the over. He’s doing everything for this offense and Dinwiddie prefers to create his own shot. As an oversized guard, there aren’t many defenders that can keep up with his speed while also providing enough size to keep him from getting to the rim.
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HOU @ OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) MORE 32.5 Points – Jalen Green (HOU) LESS 23.5 Points
Depending on how well the Thunder play after All-Star Break, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might fall victim to the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes. Oklahoma City should, by all means keep pushing for the playoffs, but no one would be surprised if the first year playing such a long season starts to wear down the young Thunder roster. However, Gilgeous-Alexander is a 24-year old veteran and as long as he is playing, we plan to continue to benefit from his historic season.
Jalen Green is having big games almost every-other game and that’s not reassuring. A young shooting guard is the last person we want to bet on, but it’s all we have to work with and his history against OKC is just as reassuring as his recent play. With how many shots he takes on a regular basis, taking LESS is the kiss of death and he’s 1-1 in terms of scoring over 20 points against the Thunder his season. Even if his line was 19.5 points, that’s not a sure-thing against this young defense and that uncertainty is concerning.
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