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Phil's fantasy football running back sleepers for 2025 Superflex drafts. His late-round value picks and draft targets, including Justice Hill and more.
Your involvement in a Superflex league automatically raises your incentive to secure quarterbacks early in the draft process. The opportunity to capitalize on the increased scoring potential that exists by promptly pursuing signal callers will ensure that quarterbacks will be selected at an accelerated pace during the initial rounds of each draft.
That factor will also impact your strategy for assembling your running backs, including your ability to identify players who are positioned to outperform their ADPs. Some of these backs are primed to flourish in their projected roles. Others are backups that present contingent value, as they will launch into extensive workloads if their team’s starting back is sidelined for any reason.
Five running backs who are high-upside handcuffs were recently discussed here. This article will extend the focus on that position by examining six undervalued backs who are available during the middle or late rounds of current drafts. ADPs from FFPC Superflex leagues were used in the breakdown of these players.
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Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
FFPC ADP 96/RB27
Isiah Pacheco’s 2024 season was a massive disappointment for anyone who seized him near his Round 3 ADP (27/RB11) during the draft process.
#Chiefs star RB Isiah Pacheco, who left the stadium in a walking boot and crutches, fractured his fibula based on initial tests, sources say.
More information coming to determine severity and associated damage, but Pacheco is set to miss real time. pic.twitter.com/9xA4hOsMyE
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 16, 2024
The fractured fibula that Pacheco sustained in Week 2 fueled a nine-game absence. He also averaged 35 rushing yards/5.0 points per game after resurfacing in Week 13, and descended into a timeshare with Kareem Hunt. According to PFF, Pacheco had also finished as a top 12 back in 42.9 percent of his matchups during 2023, but failed to finish as an RB1 last season.
Isiah Pacheco gets some big blocks and finds the end zone. 😤 @isiah_pachecoRB
📺: #KCvsNYJ on NBC⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cLJQ8MOopx pic.twitter.com/Kggr7MHXay
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2023
Kansas City signed Hunt and former 49er Elijah Mitchell to contracts in March, and selected Brashard Smith in Round 7 of the NFL Draft. However, Hunt averaged just 3.6 yards per attempt last season, while Mitchell has only played in 27 games since 2021. Smith should secure snaps as a receiving weapon, but is unlikely to catapult Pacheco on the Chiefs’ depth chart.
PACHECO PUNCHES IT IN FOR THE TD!! 💪
(🎥 @NFL)
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) January 28, 2024
The plunge in Pacheco’s ADP has been excessive. Any lingering concern surrounding Pacheco’s late-season performance can be offset by a reminder that he is further removed from last September's injury. Even if Hunt and Smith maintain involvement in Kansas City’s backfield rotation, Pacheco can still exceed expectations while he confiscates the majority of touches.
J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos
FFPC ADP 128/RB36
J.K. Dobbins' stock has fluctuated during the offseason. This was largely a byproduct of his unsettled status as a free agent before he signed a one-year contract with Denver in June. However, Dobbins’ integration into the Broncos’ backfield has not elevated his ADP above Round 11, despite his prospects of operating with a sizable role in Sean Payton’s offense.
In his first game since Week 1 of the 2023 season:
- 10 carries, 135 yards
- 3 receptions
- 1 rushing TDWhat a comeback from @Jkdobbins22 🙌 pic.twitter.com/OfOujQ1Rwv
— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2024
| Weeks 1-11 | Yards | YPA | YAC | Attempts | APG | TDs |
| Derrick Henry | 1185 | 6 | 616 | 197 | 17.9 | 13 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1137 | 5.8 | 606 | 197 | 19.7 | 8 |
| Josh Jacobs | 838 | 4.8 | 532 | 176 | 17.6 | 4 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 818 | 5.1 | 491 | 161 | 16.1 | 6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 796 | 6 | 295 | 133 | 13.3 | 8 |
| Bijan Robinson | 783 | 4.7 | 516 | 167 | 15.2 | 6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 782 | 4.3 | 384 | 183 | 16.6 | 6 |
| Joe Mixon | 764 | 4.5 | 391 | 171 | 21.4 | 10 |
| Kyren Williams | 750 | 3.9 | 494 | 191 | 19.1 | 8 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 726 | 4.8 | 446 | 152 | 15.2 | 8 |
| Najee Harris | 708 | 4 | 517 | 175 | 17.5 | 3 |
Dobbins only played in nine matchups from 2021 to 2023 before restoring his relevance during 2024. Dobbins was ninth overall in snap share (67.7 percent), and 10th in both rushing yards (726/72.6 per game), and yards after contact (446), while rising to fifth in touchdowns (eight) from Weeks 1-11.
He sustained a knee sprain in Week 12 that fueled a four-game absence, but averaged 18.5 carries/69.5 yards per game in Weeks 17-18. He also finished 12th in rush yards over expected (115) from Weeks 1-18 according to Next Gen Stats.
J.K. Dobbins continues to dominate
44-yard TD 🚀 #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/Qoz4FMUgFc
— Chargers Central (@BoltCentral) September 15, 2024
RJ Harvey’s ADP has soared to Round 7 (79/RB22) since the Broncos selected him in Round 2 during the NFL Draft. However, Dobbins will receive a respectable workload, even though Harvey should capture the majority of touches in Denver's restructured attack. That makes Dobbins a viable option at his draft position.
MarShawn Lloyd, Green Packers
FFPC ADP 182/RB58
MarShawn Lloyd was included among the recommendations in this article prior to the groin injury that he sustained on July 28. However, he still retains a passageway toward securing an ongoing role as Green Bay's RB2 behind Josh Jacobs if he can elude additional health issues.
Lloyd still needs to compete with Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks for that distinction, after his 2024 rookie season was derailed by a cluster of injuries (hip/hamstring/appendicitis/ankle). That led to his placement on the injured reserve and the non-football injury/illness lists, while restricting him to 10 snaps and seven touches.
Lloyd’s status should be monitored, but he is capable of delivering a level of speed, agility and explosiveness to the Packers backfield that Wilson and Brooks do not provide.
10. marshawn lloyd is the most under-the-radar bell cow-in-waiting in the NFL thanks to a truly random litany of 2024 injuries, which included appendicitis. lloyd's athletic + physical profile is impressive. pic.twitter.com/9vQNEbbUG9
— The Podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) June 23, 2025
The Packers selected Lloyd during Round 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft after he accumulated 1,621 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns at the collegiate level. He also accrued 65% of his yards after contact in 2023, according to PFF, and collected 31 of his 49 targets as a receiving weapon during 2022 and 2023.
5th rushing touchdown of the season for @m_lloyd_2!
📺: NBC pic.twitter.com/yfWZNcoQVl
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) October 15, 2023
Lloyd could secure a weekly allotment of touches from Matt LaFleur once he has resurfaced. He could also vault into a significant workload if the 27-year-old Jacobs is forced to the sideline. That should encourage you to target him at his Round 16 ADP.
Will Shipley, Philadelphia Eagles
FFPC ADP 183/RB59
Discussion surrounding Saquon Barkley’s mammoth workload during 2024 (378 touches) has intensified as the draft season progresses. This has also launched Will Shipley onto the list of backs to prioritize during the final rounds of your drafts, as he should seize an integral role in Philadelphia’s backfield if Barkley is forced to the sideline.
Shipley was contained in a group of six backs that were selected during Round 4 of the 2024 NFL Draft (127th overall), but he was limited to 65 offensive snaps and 34 touches during his rookie season.
Will Shipley takes off for 57 yards!
📺: #WASvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Lj5OBe3vAM— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025
However, Shipley is still a promising option as your draft advances into Round 16. The shifty second-year back utilizes his quickness, burst, and acceleration to accrue yardage and possesses the versatility to function in multiple roles.
Will Shipley's TD run that didn't count... pic.twitter.com/lixJoLowbf
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) October 28, 2024
Shipley will share touches with AJ Dillon if Barkley is unable to remain in the Eagles’ lineup. That should not impede Shipley from securing a favorable workload as both a rusher and pass-catcher if that scenario develops.
This elevates Shipley as an intriguing insurance policy for managers who have invested in Barkley. He can also be targeted by all other managers who operate in deeper leagues.
Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens
FFPC ADP 197/RB 62
Lamar to Justice Hill gives the @Ravens the lead!
📺: #BALvsTB on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/D9jJ8EQC2N— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2024
Justice Hill is not recommended as a late-round target with the same frequency as several other backs who are contained in this article. However, Derrick Henry’s enormous workload has not prevented Hill from maintaining his role as the primary receiving weapon in Baltimore's backfield. Hill’s prowess as a pass-catcher also elevates him into consideration as an RB3/flex option if you build rosters in PPR leagues.
| Weeks 1-15 | YPRR | Yards | YAC |
| David Montgomery | 2.29 | 341 | 364 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1.79 | 543 | 540 |
| Justice Hill | 1.75 | 383 | 445 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1.7 | 346 | 408 |
| Bucky Irving | 1.65 | 296 | 396 |
| De'Von Achane | 1.59 | 509 | 601 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1.56 | 395 | 340 |
| James Conner | 1.44 | 361 | 429 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1.42 | 411 | 473 |
| Weeks 1-15 | TPRR% | Targets | Rec |
| Alvin Kamara | 29.4 | 89 | 68 |
| David Montgomery | 25.5 | 38 | 36 |
| De'Von Achane | 24.4 | 78 | 70 |
| Justice Hill | 22.8 | 50 | 42 |
| Javonte Williams | 22.7 | 53 | 40 |
| Kenneth Walker | 22.4 | 45 | 38 |
| Bucky Irving | 22.3 | 40 | 38 |
| Joe Mixon | 22.2 | 46 | 32 |
| Chase Brown | 21.2 | 58 | 47 |
Hill rose to third among backs in yards per route run (1.75), fourth in targets per route run (22.8 percent), and fifth in yards after catch (445) from Weeks 1 through 15. Hill was also sixth in receiving yards (383/27.4 per game) and seventh in receptions (42/3.0 per game) before he sustained a concussion in Week 16. His receiving grade from PFF (89.0) also placed him fourth at his position.
JUSTICE HILL WITH THE TOUCHDOWN.
21-0 GOING INTO HALFTIME.
BELT TO THE…pic.twitter.com/naitUb6N86
— Ravens Nation 𝙇𝙄𝙑𝙀 (@LIVERavenNation) January 12, 2025
Hill’s viability as a handcuff is questionable, as the sixth-year back could share touches with Keaton Mitchell if Henry is sidelined during the season. However, Hill should sustain his role as Baltimore’s receiving back. Hill also remains available until Round 17 of current Superflex drafts, which bolsters your rationale for seizing him at his draft position.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders
FFPC ADP 218/RB69
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was selected in Round 7 of the NFL Draft (245th overall). However, he has remained an enticing deep sleeper throughout draft season, due to the convergence of his capabilities and a navigable path toward touches in Washington’s offense.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is INSANE value for a 7th round pick. Only playing in one game in 2024 due to eligibility issues hurt his draft stock but he’s a baller and fits exactly what AP and DQ want in a Commander. pic.twitter.com/MKsqJdoaP0
— Hot Take Freddie has (@HotTakeFreddie) April 27, 2025
Croskey-Merritt is a decisive downhill runner who can infuse a level of explosiveness into the Commanders’ backfield that is lacking with Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler.
Croskey-Merritt accumulated 1,164 yards and 13 touchdowns with Alabama State, while averaging 99.2 yards per game and producing 17 touchdowns after transferring to New Mexico in 2023. He also accrued 106 yards during his first game with Arizona in 2024, before his season abruptly ended due to eligibility issues.
| Season | Team | Games | Att | APG | Yards | YPG | YPA | TDs |
| 2023 | New Mexico | 12 | 189 | 15.8 | 1190 | 99.2 | 6.3 | 17 |
| 2024 | Arizona | 1 | 13 | 13 | 106 | 106 | 8.2 | 1 |
2025 Shrine Bowl MVP: Jacory Croskey-Merritt
🔥 11 ATT
🔥 97 YDS
🔥 2 TDS@UNMLoboFB | @ArizonaFBall pic.twitter.com/yLzGft6cq8— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 31, 2025
Croskey-Merritt later assembled 97 yards and scored two touchdowns in the East-West Shrine Bowl while earning Offensive MVP honors for his performance.
Will Jacory Croskey-Merritt be fantasy relevant as a rookie?
Sure feels like the Commanders backfield could use some fresh juice! 🧃
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) June 29, 2025
Robinson registered 0.13 missed forced tackles per attempt, according to Fantasy Points Data, and does not provide a big-play presence to the Commanders’ backfield. It is also unlikely that the 30-year-old Ekeler can approach the numbers that he delivered during his most prolific seasons.
Those factors could combine with Croskey-Merritt’s talent to expedite his rise into a role within Washington’s backfield rotation. He also remains available near the conclusion of your drafts.
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