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Kevin discusses 4 first base fantasy baseball breakouts for 2025. These young sluggers have the potential to break into the upper tier of fantasy first basemen.
As I was looking at dynasty rankings this offseason, I noticed that the top of the first base position is getting very old. Other than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the rest of the top five were all guys over 30 (Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman).
From both a redraft and dynasty standpoint, the first base position has been clamoring for more young stars to breakout. Triston Casas was the top candidate to break into this top tier. However, he's coming off a 2024 season riddled with injuries (rib) and a lot of strikeouts (31.7%) and is off to an abysmal start to 2025 (42 WRC+).
Unlike Casas, several young first basemen are off to really strong starts to the season. Could some of them join Vladdy in the old man club that is the top of the fantasy first base rankings?
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Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics
Soderstrom, a converted catcher, had a solid 2024 season in the minors and majors. Despite battling a wrist injury, he put up a 140 WRC+ in 143 PA in Triple-A and a 114 WRC+ in 213 PA in the majors. He also was able to get his strikeout rate below 25 percent at both stops.
Going into this season, it looked like Tyler Soderstrom's spot in the Athletics lineup was in jeopardy as the fourth overall pick and A's top prospect, Nick Kurtz, was putting up big numbers in his first professional season in the minors.
Kurtz has followed up his impressive first season by tearing the cover off the ball to start the season in Triple-A. He's banging down the door to the majors with six homers and a 215 WRC+ through his first 12 games.
With his job possibly on the line, Soderstrom has answered every bang on the door with an emphatic "I'm still here!" He's been one of the best hitters in the majors on the young season with six homers of his own and a 209 WRC+ in 63 PA. It's crazy that the A's might have a "too many good hitters" problem on their hands.
While he won't hit like this the whole season (most notably, he won't have a 37.5% HR/FB% all season), there are some improvements he made that signal he might be breaking out.
Aram Leighton from Just Baseball does a great breakdown of a swing change he made to clean up some of the mechanics of his swing to make more consistent contact.
Why has Tyler Soderstrom been able to take a huge step forward this season? @AramLeighton8 breaks down his swing adjustments on the Just Baseball Show⬇️ pic.twitter.com/9dmmeTQIIj
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) April 11, 2025
Soderstrom has always hit the ball hard, as he had a 91.9 mph average EV and 49.6% HH-rate in 2024. This swing change has reduced his K-rate down to 16.9 percent while increasing his Barrel and Sweet-Spot rates significantly. He's also pulling the ball more. All of these factors are allowing him to get to more of his raw power.
Soderstrom's exact role on his team is a bit up in the air with the impending promotion of Kurtz but he's definitely showing the A's and fantasy baseball managers that he has the potential to be a big time power hitter and top first baseman, especially in the A's new band box stadium in Sacramento.
Ben Rice, 1B, New York Yankees
Another converted catcher, Ben Rice, has always put up big numbers in the minor leagues. However, he's always been old for the level, so there were some questions about whether his minor league success could translate to the majors.
In 2023, Rice put up a 183 WRC+ across Low-A, High-A, and Double-A at 24 years old. In 2024, he put up a 163 WRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A before getting the call to the majors.
On the surface, his first stint in the majors was relatively disappointing. He had a .171 BA and a 73 WRC+ across 178 PA. However, Rice may have been the unluckiest hitter in the majors last year. Among hitters with at least 150 PA, Rice had the greatest negative difference between his wOBA and xwOBA.
After the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, it looked like Ben Rice could be destined for a part-time role or a start to the season in Triple-A. However, after Giancarlo Stanton went on the IL with injuries to both elbows in the spring, an opportunity at DH opened for Rice.
He has more than taken advantage of this opportunity so far this season. He has a 215 WRC+ across 51 PA with four HRs and has made his way to the top of the Yankee lineup, hitting first or second across the last few games.
Rice needs to reduce the swing and miss a little bit, but he has one of the reddest quality-of-contact savant pages in the league, most notably his league-leading 72.0 percent HH-rate and second in the league 97.5 Avg. EV.
Rice will need to continue to produce to keep his spot in the lineup when Stanton returns from injury. However, we can hope that the Yankees would prioritize the development of their young slugger unless he gives them a reason not to.
I want to make a joke about Rice being overcooked, but his performance so far signifies he could become a very good first baseman in fantasy and a lefty masher that takes full advantage of playing half his games at Yankee Stadium if given enough playing time.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
If anyone in this article was the "Prince Fielder That Was Promised", it would be Spencer Torkelson, and it's not just because he's on the Tigers.
The number one overall pick out of Arizona State was a consensus top ten prospect before getting to the Majors a few years ago. After a mediocre rookie season (77 WRC+) in 2022, it looked like he was breaking out in 2023, at least in the power department.
In 2023, Torkelson hit 31 HRs. However, that came with a .233 BA and 108 WRC+. 2024 was supposed to be the year when Tork took the next step into becoming a top fantasy first baseman. That did not happen as he had a 92 WRC+ and spent a chunk of the season back in the minors.
Coming into this season, after the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to play second base, it looked like Colt Keith would be moving to first, and Tork would be out of a job. However, injuries to half of the Tigers' major league outfielders forced Kerry Carpenter to play more in the outfield and gave Tork a spot on the roster as a DH and 1B.
Like the above guys, he's making the most of his opportunity and showing some of the potential that made him a top prospect. He has four HRs and a 201 WRC+ in 62 PA.
TORK BOMB 💣 pic.twitter.com/4tlUJNad5T
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) April 12, 2025
While I think a career year could be coming for Tork, some of his under-the-hood metrics are not as exciting as the above guys. He currently has a .400 BABIP and is striking out 29 percent of the time. His quality of contact metrics are very good, but not as elite as Ben Rice's to compensate for that high strikeout rate.
Fantasy managers can expect a slightly better version of the Tork we saw in 2023, where he'll hit a good number of home runs, but the average won't be great. He'll make for a solid back-end starting 1B/good CI option, which is way more than was expected from him a few weeks ago.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Before the season, I wrote about how the Rays' lefties will love getting to hit in their new ballpark. No one has loved it more than Jonathan Aranda.
Aranda has had to wait quite a long time to get a real opportunity for the Rays. He signed with the Rays in 2015 and has been working his way up to the majors since. He's had opportunities to play in the majors in 2022, 2023, and 2024 but was mostly viewed as a Quad-A guy until this season.
He earned his early opportunity in 2025 to be a strong side platoon player at DH late last season. Upon returning to the Majors from Triple-A, he had an .836 OPS the last month of the season.
If he continues to produce like this, he's going to have a job all season and beyond. Through 44 PA, he has only two HR but a 228 WRC+. He's also reduced his K-rate down to 20.5 percent and increased his BB-rate up to 11.4 percent.
Aranda's quality of contact is excellent, most notably his 95.7 mph average. EV and 57.7 percent HH-rate, so if he can maintain the improved plate skills, he'll continue to be very productive this season. His .444 BABIP will regress, but he should still be a solid source of power and average.
Jonathan Aranda Is putting together quite a 2025 campaign
His no-doubt HR today:
108.7 MPH, 29 Degree LA, 379 FT, .990 xBA
He has a .378 AVG, .455 OBP, and a 1.158 OPS over 37 ABs
He also walked twice today, showing his ++ plate discipline pic.twitter.com/qboqqDZBJ0
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) April 12, 2025
The biggest downside to Aranda's value is that he likely won't start facing many lefties. He should still provide strong value in weekly leagues and is a great asset in daily leagues where you can get him in and out of your lineup on days he plays.
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