First Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Tiers, Analysis - Roto Leagues (2024)

February 25, 2024

RotoBaller's fantasy baseball first base (1B) rankings for 2024 drafts. Dan's analysis of first base rankings and tiers for roto leagues (5x5 mixed leagues).

Spring training is finally here, so there is no better time than now to prep for your fantasy draft. First base has long been relied on to contribute more than their fair share to a team’s statistics. This year, the field is loaded at the top, but there is some great value to be found in the middle and late rounds as well.

RotoBaller’s preseason rankings make short work of figuring out who your best options will be at first base. There are more than 60 players ranked who are eligible at first base. In this article, I’ll touch on nearly all of them, tier by tier.

After you are done with this one, check out more of our preseason rankings and analysis to stay ahead of the competition as draft season approaches.

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First Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Roto Leagues

Tier 1 - First Base Fantasy Rankings

Freddie Freeman is at the top of this year’s first base rankings and for good reason. Last year, Freeman’s .331 batting average was third-best in the majors, his 131 runs scored were second only to Ronald Acuna Jr., and he led the bigs with 59 doubles, propelling him to a top-three finish in total bases with 361. He rounded out his season with 29 home runs, 102 RBI, and a surprising 23 stolen bases.

In 2024, he will again be a key piece of the Dodgers’ star-studded lineup and this time reigning American League MVP Shohei Ohtani will be joining him in the lineup. Freeman is entering his age-34 season but has shown no signs of slowing down. One of fantasy baseball’s more consistent performers at his position, he should be the first first baseman off the board.

One of a kind.

Freddie Freeman is the first 1st baseman in AL/NL history to collect 200 hits, 20 homers, and 20 steals in one season. 👏 pic.twitter.com/ifvECSTMs5

— MLB (@MLB) September 23, 2023

Joining Freeman in Tier 1 is Matt Olson. Olson led the majors in home runs and RBI in 2023, with 54 and 139, respectively. Both were career highs, as were his .283 batting average and 16.4% barrel rate. The specter of regression looms after a career year, but his power won’t disappear and he should be a great source for counting stats in 2024.

Tier 2 - First Base Fantasy Rankings

Bryce Harper and Pete Alonso represent the next best options at first base. Harper’s 2023 season didn’t start until May as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery undergone the previous November. A home run drought that left him with just five round-trippers through the end of July had some fans debating if he returned too soon and others worrying that the surgery sapped his power.

Harper shut the door on those concerns with a late-season surge, belting 16 home runs in August and September. In addition to the homers, he hit .293, scored 84 runs, drove in 72, and stole 11 bases in his abbreviated season. Another year near the top of a loaded Phillies lineup means he will be a major contributor across all five categories once again in 2024.

Alonso is geared up for another big year at the plate as well. In 2023, “Polar Bear” mashed another 46 home runs and racked up 118 RBI. On the downside, he endured a .205 BABIP, which sank his batting average to .217 for the season. Positive regression is due in Alonso’s case and he, too, is bankable in the season leading up to his first shot at free agency.

Tier 3 - First Base Fantasy Rankings

Lacking the pop of the players above him, but with greater potential than his peers ranking below, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets the third tier all to himself. After hitting 48 homers and recording a .311/.401/.601 slash line at the age of 22 in 2021, Guerrero looked like he was going to be a first-round talent for years to come, but his production has decreased each year since. His profile has not shown any significant aberrations, though, which is perhaps why most projection systems predict another 30-home run, .280 batting average season.

Tier 4 - First Base Fantasy Rankings

Tier 4 in our rankings runs deeper, featuring a mix of veterans who have put up big numbers in the past and youngsters on the verge of becoming the next big thing at first base.

The tier is led by Paul Goldschmidt, who, after earning MVP honors in 2022, had a rather disappointing follow-up season in 2023. Still, his 25 home runs, 80 RBI, and 89 runs were nothing to scoff at and would offer good value if replicated in 2024 at his current fantasy baseball ADP of 77.12. Goldschmidt is entering his age-36 season and there is concern that his bat is slowing down (his pull rate dipped last year and his strikeout rate rose), but even a lesser version of the Goldy we know and love should be a viable option at first base.

Nolan Jones had a breakout season in 2023, setting a new record for fewest plate appearances (424) to reach 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Jones primarily played in the outfield, but his 10 games at first base give him eligibility at the position at many fantasy sites. Jones did have a league-leading .401 BABIP last year, so his .297 batting average is sure to regress, but he will be an everyday player, thus giving him ample opportunity to contribute to the counting categories.

Nolan Jones led all qualified rookies this season in AVG, OBP and SLG 🥇

20+ 2B, 20+ HR and 20+ SB in just 106 games for the @Rockies outfielder! pic.twitter.com/iZ3GqWItXm

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 2, 2023

Cody Bellinger was just one of four players who had a 20/20 season in 2023 while also hitting .300 or better. On top of that, he scored 95 runs and drove in 97. On the other hand, he also experienced career lows in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, leaving many to wonder if last year’s bounce-back season was a return to form or just a fluke. Bellinger will return to Wrigley Field in 2024, having signed a new 3-year, $80 million deal with the Cubs on February 25. Perhaps sticking with the club where he was looking like his former self will lead to continued success.

Christian Walker has put together back-to-back seasons where he has recorded at least 33 home runs, 84 runs scored, and 94 RBI. His 197 total RBI in that time are 10th-most in the league. After a couple of down seasons since his 2019 breakout, it seems as though Walker can be trusted as a masher. While his average exit velocity was at its lowest since 2018, Walker still barreled the ball at an 11.4% clip and decreased his strikeout rate for the third consecutive season.

Players with at least 30 home runs, a 125 OPS+, and a .240 BA in 2022 and 2023:

- Shohei Ohtani
- Aaron Judge
- Mookie Betts
- Christian Walker pic.twitter.com/KRZuW9742q

— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) September 4, 2023

Rounding out the category are a couple of emerging talents. Triston Casas had fantasy managers worried for a while in 2023, but the 15 homers and .317 batting average he posted in the second half have many fantasy managers optimistic about his 2024. Likewise, Spencer Torkelson rebounded from a disappointing rookie season and crushed 31 home runs while driving in 94 runs. Both players project to be everyday starters hitting in the top half of their respective lineups in the coming year.

Tier 5 - First Base Fantasy Rankings

Several names appear in the fifth tier that would make a solid addition for a corner infield slot or a top bench bat. Waiting this long to snag your starting first baseman may come with some regrets, though.

Josh Naylor had career highs in RBI (97) and batting average (.308) in 2023 and stands a good chance to replicate that success if he can stay healthy. Naylor’s swing rate is one of the highest in the league, but he makes a lot of contact and last season his strikeout rate was just 13.7%. The Guardians don’t have much going on in the bottom half of their lineup, so he will struggle to score runs himself, but his batted-ball ability and plate discipline should provide a fair amount of home runs, RBI, and average.

Yandy Diaz had a career year in 2023, posting a line of 95 R, 22 HR, 78 RBI, and a .330 batting average, all of which were career highs. Diaz does not have the home run potential one usually looks for in a first baseman (he has just 61 in his seven years in the MLB), but his ability to drive the ball (54.0% hard-hit rate in 2023) despite a low launch angle gives him good production in the runs and RBI categories, not to mention the potential for another .300 season.

Anthony Santander will once again be hitting in the top half of a Baltimore Orioles lineup that is on the ascent. For someone who is outfielder-eligible, he doesn’t have the speed you would hope for (eight in his entire career). His batting average may lag, but he has averaged 30 home runs and 92 RBI over the last two seasons and is projected to meet those marks once again in 2024.

Spencer Steer was one of a handful of Cincinnati Reds who broke out during their 2023 youth movement. His 665 plate appearances last year made him a surprising five-category contributor. Take note that he is projected for 100 fewer PAs in 2024, so it will be hard for him to beat his astounding rookie season. Depending on your platform, Steer will be eligible for multiple positions, which does add some value.

Since 1920, only four rookies have enjoyed a season with 20+ home runs, 35+ doubles, 80+ RBIs and 15+ stolen bases.

Spencer Steer has done it in 2023 and he's the first to accomplish it in Major League Baseball since 1997.

Check out these names! 👀@spenc__er | @Reds pic.twitter.com/nyikXySQcI

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) September 30, 2023

Luis Arraez has won consecutive batting titles, first as a Minnesota Twin in 2022 and again with the Marlins in 2023. A career .326 hitter, he is certain to help out your team batting average, but he can’t be counted on for much else. His hitting ability will generate a fair amount of runs and RBI, but not as much as you usually hope for from first base. He has little power and speed though, so keep expectations for home runs and stolen bases are low. Very low.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, was another one of the upstart Cincinnati Reds who broke out last season. He started a bit slow after his July call-up but cranked eight home runs in September, finishing with 13 HR in 241 plate appearances as a rookie. He stands to benefit from calling Great American Ballpark home but will find himself in a timeshare with the arrival of Jeimer Candelario, who joined the team via free agency in December.

If you pick up Salvador Perez, it is probably to fill your catcher slot, but his dual eligibility is a nice perk if that position is already filled on your roster. Perez represents a safe floor for home runs as he has had at least 21 every year (except 2020) since 2015. That said, his ceiling for run and RBI production will be limited due to the weak Royals lineup around him.

Tier 6 and Below - First Base Fantasy Rankings

With 18 first basemen already listed in the tiers above, players in Tier 6 and below might not even be drafted in a standard 12-team league. There are some interesting players still available this late, though. I’ll group players from Tier 6 according to similarities, and reach down into the lower rungs when appropriate.

Several players in the lower rungs are hoping to rebound after injury derailed their 2023 season. Vinnie Pasquantino, Rhys Hoskins, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Rizzo, and Gio Urshela all spent a significant amount of time on the injured list in 2023. Hoskins missed the entire season with a torn ACL, but the others flashed fantasy potential while active.

Volume is hard to come by in the bottom tiers of any rankings, but each member of this trio has a path to regular playing time which should bring consistent production, even if it is not at the level of their higher-ranked peers.

Alec Bohm, Andrew Vaughn, and Ty France are the only first basemen ranked this low still projected by ATC to see at least 600 plate appearances. Nathaniel Lowe had been as well, but is dealing with a strained oblique which will impede his contributions to the stout Rangers lineup. It’s worth noting that Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, and Joey Meneses are projected just under this threshold as well.

According to FanGraphs, this is the top of the Texas Rangers' lineup predictions for 2024:

Marcus Semien: 679 PA, 26 HR, .265/.336/.460
Corey Seager: 581 PA, 28 HR, .294/.367/.525
Adolis Garica: 644 PA, 32 HR, .244/.309/.468
Nathaniel Lowe: 679 PA, 24 HR, .274/.351/.447 pic.twitter.com/enzv64STCW

— Abby Jones (@_abigaiiiil) February 21, 2024

Positional flexibility is always a plus. Isaac Paredes, Jeimer Candelario, Brandon Drury, and Justin Turner will all likely carry eligibility at a position other than first base. There are plenty more names from lower tiers that have this same advantage like Jake Cronenworth, Brendan Donovan, Luke Raley, and DJ LeMahieu.

The lower rungs of the first base rankings include a slew of players who aren't in the lineup everyday, but their playing time can be predicted with a look at upcoming pitching matchups. Ryan O'Hearn, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Alex Kirilloff are examples of guys whose splits are favorable against right-handed pitchers. Carlos Santana, Patrick Wisdom, and Connor Joe have had greater success against southpaws and therefore figure to be on the short side of a platoon.

LaMonte Wade Jr. makes it a 4-run 5th 💣💥

(via @NBCSGiants) pic.twitter.com/o7SJVgyMrG

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 18, 2023

Also down here are a handful of youngsters who took their first steps in the MLB last season or look to be on the cusp of gaining a foothold in 2024. Kyle Manzardo, Elehuris Montero, Ryan Noda, Nolan Schanuel, and Mark Vientos all project to get at least 390 PAs.

On-base machine Ryan Noda comes in as our #15 AL rookie of 2023! pic.twitter.com/L9l0IxZQ2i

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 28, 2024

Lastly come the remaining veterans. Some are mashers, though actually making contact is another story (Rowdy Tellez, Joey Gallo, Seth Brown). Others have produced in fits and starts, but don’t have enough to demand an everyday role (Wilmer Flores, Mark Canha). There are even a few still waiting to see if they will get one last turn on a major league roster. C.J. Cron recently signed a minor-league deal with the Red Sox and will have to compete for a job, while Joey Votto and Brandon Belt remain free agents.

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