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JB uses his Keeper Player Valuation Formula to rank the top values among Third Basemen (Tier 3) for 2017 fantasy baseball keeper leagues heading into the MLB season.
What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to my series on keeper leagues. Today I'll be taking a look at third basemen keeper values for fantasy baseball (tier three) for those of you deciding what players to keep for your teams.
Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.
For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used. If you play in a custom league with non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
How My Keeper Valuation Formula Works
The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2016 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at his associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.
| TIER | SCORE | EXPLANATION |
| 1 | >75 | Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT. |
| 2 | 50-75 | Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept. |
| 3 | 25-49 | You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited. |
| 4 | 0-24 | Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you have a large quantity of Keeper selections. |
| 5 | -99-0 | Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here. |
| 6 | <-100 | The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away. |
2017 Top Third Basemen Keeper Values: #8-12
12. Ryon Healy, OAK (23rd Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 25.16
Why aren't more people talking about Ryon Healy? In Healy's first 72 Major League games, he hit 13 HR with a .305 BA for the Athletics. The 13 HR gave him an impressive 27 total bombs in 2016 combined with two levels of the minors. The previous third round pick finished the season top five among rookies in BA and ISO (.219). He has no ability to draw walks, with a 4.2 BB% that was unfortunately conisistent with his statistics in through the minors, but the guy can hit a baseball. In addition to his 13 HR, Healy also yanked 20 doubles, producing a sexy .524 SLG.
The .352 BABIP in the small sample last season is obviously pointing to BA regression over the course of a full MLB season, but he's been hitting crazy BABIPs for a while now. During his stops in AA and AAA last season, he posted .398 and .369 BABIPs respectively, and posted a .341 BABIP over the full season in AA in 2015. So don't expect the 2017 dip to be excessive, because as I said before, the guy can hit.
As I was studying Healy and his statistics, I couldn't help but keep comparing him to a 24 year old version of Evan Longoria, without the elite defense of course. I mean, look at these comparisons for BA, SLG, ISO, and K%.
Healy's future may be on the other side of the infield, GM David Forst suggested the majority of Healys 2017 playing time will be at first base or designated hitter, but at the plate we could have a (very slightly) poor man's Evan Longoria. I'll take a chance on that with a late round draft pick.
11. Eduardo Nunez, SFG (23rd Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 31.69
Taking advantage of receiving a full season's worth of AB for the first time in his career, Eduardo Nunez turned the opportunity into his first All-Star appearance and a 16/40 season. Nuni caught everyone by surprise right out the gate, exploding for 12 HR and a .836 OPS heading into the mid summer classic. The second half was less-than-stellar, but he still finished with a cool .288 BA and found himself on a championship contender out in San Francisco. Don't let the second half woes fool you into thinking AT&T Park sapped his fantasy value away. In just 21 G in the bay, he hit .307 with two HR.
The 16 HR seem just a tad over-achieving for Nunez, even though he owned a HR/FB% that was less than one point higher than 2015. The speed is real, and I think that spacious AT&T Park will play to his strengths very well as he owns a top 25 contact percentage. His new lineup spot is definitely a downgrade from hitting atop the lineup in Minnesota, hitting seventh with Mac Williamson or Jarrett Parker and the pitcher covering his back, which could be why RotoBaller has him sitting in the 15th-16th round range. Still, there is plenty of room for returned value with that speed and modest pop.
10. Adrian Beltre, TEX (Seventh Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 32.37
I'll admit, there were times over the past two seasons when I for sure thought Adrian Beltre's fantasy relevance was finally hanging up it's cleats. But of course the soon to be 38 year old continues to defy father time, and he did it in a big way in 2016, having quite possibly the best season he's had in five years. He hit 32 HR, 104 RBI, and slashed .300/.358/.521. Contrary to what we usual see out of hitters, Beltre has been striking out even less as he approaches 40, cutting his K% in both the past two seasons.
Beltre is just consistently brilliant at the plate. But just like we saw in 2015, it took the future hall of famer half a season to get the body warmed up last year. Over the second half of the season, hitting .323 with 20 HR, 1.000 OPS, and a beatly .293 ISO. His 162 wRC+ was fifth best in the league after the All-Star game. So whatever you do, do not trade Beltre after he gets off to a slow start this year. His ADP was insanely low for his own standards last year, due to a "down" year in 2015 while playing with a torn ligament in his thumb, which is good news if you landed him in your keeper league.
9. Anthony Rendon, WAS (Eighth Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 32.70
In 2014, Rendon exploded onto the fantasy baseball scene hitting 21 HR with 17 SB and leading the league in R, finishing in fifth place in MVP voting. In 2015 a knee injury caused him to miss half the season. There were plenty of concerns heading into last season's fantasy drafts on the durability of said knee, but Rendon rewarded the owners that took the chance. He finished 2016 with a .270/.348/.450 line adding 20 HR and 12 SB. With Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy hitting in front of him, he knocked in a career high 85 RBI and still scored 91 R. His overall numbers, including batted ball and plate discipline, were similar enough to those of his breakout 2014 campaign to say the knee problems are safely behind Rendon.
What fantasy owners would love to see from Rendon this year, to take that next step forward at the plate, would be more power against southpaws. He only hit one HR off a LHP in 2016 (.143 ISO), and only three in 2014. It seems he has had awful luck with the split, however. He hit a miniscule 2.8 HR/FB% versus lefties, while hitting 41.9% flyballs with a 34.9 Hard%. I think this changes in 2017, which could add some serious fat to his HR totals. The good news is that he already started the improvements over the second half of 2016. Here are the heat maps from before and after the All-Star break to prove it:
8. Evan Longoria, TB (10th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 40.87
At this point in Evan Longoria's nine year career, he's looking to hit the ball as hard as possible, and nothing else. In the fantasy baseball world, we have no issue with that. In 2016 Longo smashed a career high 36 HR and 98 RBI, his most since 2011. His .248 ISO was also the highest he's posted since 2011. They weren't all over the fence, however. He also ranked in the top 10 in league with 41 doubles, producing a .521 SLG. The man just ain't got time for groundballs anymore. He hit his lowest GB/FB ratio ever (0.68), and hit the fifth highest flyball percentage in baseball. Longoria went up to the plate looking to swing, and was sitting on the cheese. He posted personal high swing percentages, and became a top 10 fastball hitter with an impressive 27.8 wFB (first SLG heat map). The downside to the new approach was a career low in contact percentage, career high swinging strike percentage, a rather sad 0.29 BB/K ratio, and negative values against all offspeed pitches (second SLG heat map). You can't have it all, I guess.
If this approach at the plate carries over into 2017, the HR totals will absolutely be returning. He hit a 36.3 Hard%, and turned only 15.15% of his flyballs into homers, a number that he's topped five times in his career. The other certainty about Longoria is his durability. He has played at least 160 games for four consecutive seasons, playing more games than any other major league hitter over that span. His ADP dropped significantly in 2016 drafts after hitting a combined 43 HR in '14 and '15, along with the mediocre BA we have become accustomed to seeing from him. But if the HR keep piling up, the 31 year old will be quite a bargain at this price.
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