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What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to my series on keeper leagues. Today I'll be taking a look at second basemen keeper values for fantasy baseball (tier one) for those of you deciding what players to keep for your teams.
Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.
For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used. If you play in a custom league with non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
How My Keeper Valuation Formula Works
The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2016 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at his associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.
| TIER | SCORE | EXPLANATION |
| 1 | >75 | Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT. |
| 2 | 50-75 | Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept. |
| 3 | 25-49 | You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited. |
| 4 | 0-24 | Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you have a large quantity of Keeper selections. |
| 5 | -99-0 | Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here. |
| 6 | <-100 | The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away. |
2017 Top Second Basemen Keeper Values: #1-2
2. Jean Segura, SEA (17th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 80.41
If you did not suffer too many concussions during your football days like me, you certainly remember Segura's first full season in the MLB in 2013. He was surrounded by all sorts of fantasy hype after hitting 12 HR, 10 triples, .294 BA and swiping 44 bases to go along with his first All-Star game. It was a quick ride however, as over the next two seasons combined Segura recorded just 11 HR, 45 SB and failed to crest a .257 BA. He was then traded to Arizona last off-season, and the man went nuts at the plate. Segura finished the 2016 season with the third most hits in the league (203) and almost as many career best hitting stats. It was certainly an unexpected fantasy resurrection, and one that has sparked quite a bit of conversation as we head into 2017 fantasy drafts.
The 26 year old finished the year with a career high 20 HR, 102 R, and a shiny .319 BA, while still managing to steal 33 bases. He joined Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, and Jose Altuve as the only players in the league in the 20/30 club. As if the HR outburst wasn't impressive enough, he also doubled his previous high by smacking 41 doubles. Segura was a hit machine, and pitchers couldn't get anything past him. After posting negative values against fastballs, sliders, and changes in 2015, Segura earned a 20.9 wFB, 10.8 wSL (second highest in the MLB), and 5.1 wCH. As you can see, everything was clicking for him at the plate.
The increase in power was aided by the move to Phoenix, as his ISO was 50 points higher at home, and he matched his previous HR record at Chase Field alone. But it was also Segura's first season hitting under a 2.00 GB/FB ratio (see below), and he hit a career high hard hit percentage.
Hitting the ball harder and in the air more is going to help increase your HR total regardless of where you call home. But what Chase Field cannot improve, is a players swing. I credit his pitch selection for the incredible year at the plate, as Segura cut down his O-Swing% by more than seven percent and the improvement is quite evident when comparing the Swing% heat maps from the past two seasons.
Becoming a smarter hitter can not be accredited to luck or Chase Field. But if you ask Jean Segura, he actually credits his 2016 success at the plate from advice and off-season adjustments he received from an old friend. One that has actually just become his double-play-turning teammate, Robinson Cano. That's right, after being traded to Seattle last November in exchange for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte, the man that reportedly fixed the swing of Jean Segura and turned him into a top 15 fantasy player will now be sitting next to him in the dugout all season. That can't be anything but good news for fantasy owners. Plus he is moving back to his original position of Shortstop, and projected to hit at the top of the Mariners lineup in front of Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. So even if the nay-sayers are right, and SafeCo saps all the Chase Field magic away from his power, I still believe the speed, the BA, and a crazy amount of runs will be back on the menu in 2017.
Former #Diamondback Jean Segura will join an old friend in Seattle. Story via @RyanDivish https://t.co/mjRSWsnq6M
— Matt J. Layman (@mattjlayman) January 31, 2017
1. Daniel Murphy, WAS (13th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 93.21
Speaking of fantasy resurrections, there wasn't a more impressive breakout than that of Daniel Murphy's in 2016. The career season carried over from his historic 2015 playoff run with the Mets, where he hit seven HR in only 14 games. The magic continued, as he finished last season with a career highs almost completely across the board, including a blistering .347 BA that was only one point behind DJ LeMahieu for the MLB lead. The 66 point BA increase was eye popping, but Murph has always been a great contact hitter. He owns a career 88.7 Contact% and a lowly 5.2 SwStr%. What really drove the nail home in 2016 was the addition of the power stroke. He swatted 25 HR and 47 doubles, knocking in 104 RBI, with a .249 ISO and the leagues second highest .595 SLG. These are elite power numbers, folks. We're talking a higher Isolated Power percentage than Miguel Cabrera, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mike Trout, and Robinson Cano, just to name a few.
In this FanGraphs article, author Andrew Perpetua beautifully explains the transformation Daniel Murphy experienced last season. Instead of looking at this as a fluke, or a blip, he illustrated it as more of the deliberate result of an eight year process. Murphy took pride in being a contact hitter first, and adding power second, unlike many top hitters in the league these days who willingly swap average for power immediately. As Perpetua states, Murphy worked tirelessly on his hand-eye coordination and plate discipline until he became one of the best in the business at putting the ball in play. Then comes 2016, and Murph hits a career high flyball percentage, career high pull percentage, and a career high hard hit percentage. The results were a 156 wRC+ (first among 2B, fourth overall), his second All-Star appearance, first Silver Slugger award, and finishing second in the MVP voting. It almost looked too easy for him. He built and perfected the foundation, and with a snap of the finger he could do whatever he wanted at the plate.
I mean, it is no Ken Griffey Jr., but hot damn that is a gorgeous, effortless swing.
I don't know how you can't be excited about Daniel Murphy heading into the 2017 fantasy season. The dude's been doing this for a year and a half now. Sample size worries are over. He posted the same OPS over both halves of last season. He hasn't shown signs of slowing down. You don't think a repeat in HR is unreasonable? I think that the measly four percent increase in his HR/FB% while increasing his Hard% by seven percent, and his flyballs by six percent is unreasonable. If Murph wants to hit 25 HR again in 2017, he will hit 25 HR again. Oh, and the RBI? The Nationals acquired Adam Eaton this off-season to man the leadoff spot this year, and they get a full season out of the absolute stud Trea Turner in the two hole in front of Murphy. Cha-ching.
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