RADIO
Mav's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 10/15/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back summoners, to a WORLDS EDITION article covering the six-game slate that involves only teams from Group A. It's the most wonderful time of the year, with the best teams in League of Legends squaring off in BO1's during the group stage, in hopes of advancing to the knockout stage to play some BO5's in a single-elimination bracket. The knockout stage matchups will be drawn on Oct 18 following the completion of the group stage. A little tidbit before we go into the group breakdown, teams on the blue side are 15-9 so far this tournament. In this meta, you would think the red side has an advantage, considering the number of picks that can be played in this meta.
Let's get into which two teams I think will get out of Group A after tomorrow. Currently, DWG Kia sits at 3-0, FPX sits at 2-1, RGE at 1-2, and C9 at 0-3 (RIP NA.) C9 is basically eliminated from my understanding, along with RGE's dreams being very much alive, and hoping to force a tiebreaker vs FPX to advance to knockouts. The only game tomorrow that shouldn't matter much is the last game between DKand C9. C9 is looking to play spoiler to either FPX or RGE's chances of advancing. Essentially, RGE's best chance to advance is if they win out tomorrow OR if they only drop a game to DWG, while also needing FPX to drop their first game to DK, which leaves the RGE vs FPX game being the real turning point in the group. If FPX manages to overcome DK in the first game, then they are in a really strong position to advance, assuming DK takes down RGE later in the day. Players will accrue points from ALL games played tomorrow, so lineup construction is slightly different, as I do think we have a couple of games to target some underdogs for value. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings, so for FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 7:00 AM EST on Friday, October 15th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSGroup A Matches FRI 10/15 (teams listed on left are on the red side)
7:00 AM DK (-164) vs. FPX (+135)
Opening game and a really important one for FPX to set the tone if they plan on getting out of this group. To me, DWG is the clear favorite to win this group. They are drafting extremely well, while this has been one of FPX"s biggest downfalls so far through the first-round robin. DWG is winning fights on multiple fronts at the same time and has a superior macro to anyone else in the group. FPX was down 3k after 10 minutes in their first match vs DWG. The bad news for FPX is that they prefer the red side as far as their W/L record showed during the summer, while DK was extremely effective on both sides. With FPX's draft struggles so far being imminent, I don't envision them pulling out the perfect draft scenario here vs DK. Give me DK to come out on top to open the day, led by Showmaker and Canyon, my two favorite DK targets this slate, who are playing on another level right now. FPX was so far behind early in the first match that they couldn't opt into many fights on their own terms, and I see the same happening here.
7:55 AM C9 (+139) vs. RGE (-141)
Rogue needs to come out strong and with a game plan to try and get out of this tough group. Most thought it would be a straightforward outcome, with DK and FPX getting out. But with RGE being especially good at BO1's and FPX really struggling with drafting in this meta, I truly think RGE has a shot to make it out. FPX fell pretty behind early to C9 for goodness sake, and C9 simply played the mid-late game like apes, something that RGE is actually strong at. This game is straightforward for me, as RGE should win through their mid/jungle prowess. RGE has the advantage in every stage of the game in my opinion, and even if they fall behind early, I do NOT trust C9 to cleanly transfer their lead into the mid/late game. RGE win comfortably. RGE on the blue side is another plus.
8:50 AM C9 (+275) vs. FPX (-358)
Lol C9 is in a rough spot here once again, as FPX is on their more comfortable side looking at W/L from summer. C9 lost to UOL in play-ins for Christ's sake. That's depressing if you're a C9 fan. FPX should roll here and score pretty well in the process. Really wish I could make an argument for C9, but even as Blaber/Vulcan linked up well in their first game vs FPX, AND Perkz (supposedly their best player) was in a strong position to carry on Ryze, we saw that lead diminish in the mid-game due to macro blunders. FPX win comfortably this time around.
9:45 AM DK (-487) vs. RGE (+359)
DK are the titans of this group, and the fact that RGE grabbed a baron vs DK is somewhat rewarding to see. However, Khan dominated top lane vs Odo, and Ghost and Beryl bullied Trymbi and Hans in their first match. I attribute most of it to Trymbi struggling again, as well as a favorable bot matchup for DK. Both RGE side lanes were overpowered early on. No surprise though, as DK is a step above most teams in this tournament. DK was somewhat lackadaisical in the mid-game and that's what led to a RGE 5v5 team fight win and baron. However, DK was far ahead enough to end on their own terms, by securing elder drag after winning another fight. These guys are just too good. RGE on the blue side is a small sign of hope, and these odds might be slightly too much in favor of DK, so perhaps RGE go undefeated tomorrow and DK only drops this one game. Anything is possible in BO1 League of Legends. DK wins a slower-paced game.
10:40 AM FPX (-374) vs. RGE (+286)
In their first match, Trymbi fell for first blood at level 1 and again at level 6 at rift herald fight, while Hans Samma actually had a great game individually. Odoamne did lose lane to Nuguri as expected, which led to a free rift herald and helped FPX snowball. But RGE found consistent picks as the game went along, it was just a matter of them falling behind early due to Trymbi having a really rough game. I expect more from Trymbi, and a priority shift from mid/jungle down to the bot lane for RGE, while again handshaking top lane and letting Odoamne play for his team more rather than himself as usual. Larssen and Inspired definitely held their own considering the game state. I think you know where I'm getting at here. RGE is more than capable of beating this FPX squad in my eyes, something that most may not agree with. But with RGE now being on their preferred blue side, I like RGE here. FPX definitely has a top lane advantage, along with Crisp and DoinB roaming skills to punish RGE aggression. I think RGE will be prepared for this LPL, fast-paced matchup that will be the turning point in the group. RGE gets a nice warmup vs C9 and then gets to take notes from their loss to DK, to then implement vs FPX. Trymbi and Inspired have to be on the same page if they want to take down this FPX roaming squad that likes to play through side lanes.
11:35 AM C9 (+456) vs. DK (-651)
This game won't matter in terms of standings for the group. Maybe we see some experimental drafts from both sides, but that won't matter as DK finish this group undefeated. DK win this match 99 times out of 100. I have zero faith in C9 if you couldn't tell up to this point. It's a TSM repeat from last year, as C9 will finish this group 0-6. Yikes.
Top Captain Plays(in order)
Showmaker(favorite captain to pair with RGE secondary stack of Larssen/Hans), Canyon(will be chalky captain because you can fit Tian and Lwx secondary), Hans Sama then Larssen(contrarian large field GPP captains, assuming RGE go undefeated and beat DK tomorrow, also love pairing Hans with Trymbi who will have to have a great day if they want to make it through), LWX(can fit Nuguri and Crisp, along with Show, Canyon, Ghost, RGE team slot), DoinB
Summary
- TLDR: DK finish undefeated, RGE force tiebreaker with FPX and FPX advances lol. But for the sake of the slate, which won't include the tiebreaker, give me RGE for my secondary stack which should provide some great leverage in large field GPP's. I think the chalkiest lineup will be Canyon Captain with 4 DWG, with Tian and LWX and FPX team mini stack. C9 sucks and won't win a game xd. 4-2-1 builds are also in play, with a RGE one-off being my favorite for savings, assuming you think FPX will make it out.
- I think Showmaker and Canyon are on another level right now, so they will be a priority for me in all of my lineups, along with Hans Sama who has been playing well regardless if Trymbi doesn't play well. This is definitely the key matchup to watch if RGE wants to make it through tomorrow. Rogue full four man stacks will be amazing leverage if they can somehow go undefeated and beat DK tomorrow. Going to be an uphill battle but give me at least 1 RGE member in most of my lineups tomorrow, prioritizing Hans Sama. Good luck tomorrow!
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