Week 16 Contenders and Pretenders: 2024 NBA Season

February 6, 2024

RotoBaller break down the NBA's pretenders and contenders teams for 2024 Week 16. Who are the this week's teams? Lance Roberson gives you his analysis.

With the All-Star Game approaching and the annual MVP discussion heating up, the NBA is at its halfway point.

While current playoff seedings slightly represent the league's hierarchy, a few teams come to mind when indicating which team's regular season success potentially translates to playoff wins and who's solely a regular season product and not a legitimate NBA Finals contender.

As the early-season honeymoon stage fades and the ramp-up to the playoff race heats up, RotoBaller will provide you with a weekly update on who we see as the contenders and pretenders of the league. Without further ado, here are the Week 16 NBA contenders and pretenders.

Week 16's Pretenders

Sacramento Kings

• Record: 29-20
• Conference Standing: 5th in Western Conference

Lighting the beam is now in my basketball vernacular, and I can only thank the Sacramento Kings for such an experience. Last season's captivating regular season run saw the typically sad Sacramento basketball franchise beget feelings of nostalgia. Finishing third in the Western Conference with a 48-34 record, Sacramento almost shocked the world by threatening the then reigning NBA champion Golden State Warriors, forcing Stephen Curry to go ballistic in Game 7, crushing the league's feel-good story.

Unfortunately for the Kings, such a magical year failed to repeat itself. While the Kings are still in the thick of things as a playoff threat, they are six games behind the Denver Nuggets for home-court advantage in the first round. Frankly, unless something catastrophic occurs, I doubt the Kings will move up in the standings.

Aside from Sacramento's standing dilemma, roster construction plays a role in its pretender status. Although you could argue the Kings have an underrated team, as the NBA failed to reward them with any All-Star selections, ironically, one of their two stars didn't hold up in the seven-game series vs. the Warriors.

Three-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis averaged only 16 points, finishing an abysmal 57 percent from the charity stripe. While averaging 16 points and 11 rebounds suggest an adequate playoff performance, past postseason outings suggest Sabonis is not built for the playoffs, considering his 11 points per game.

Furthermore, the Kings lack a formidable defensive wing to oppose the plethora of talented players in the Western Conference. Despite having the build of such a player, Keegan Murray won't save the Kings, and Harrison Barnes, respectively speaking, doesn't glow either. Forgive me for sounding like Charles Barkley, but how do the Kings beat anyone in the first round other than averaging 130 points per game? Imagine the Kings vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, a team equipped with so many elite players that switching on defense becomes a mute strategy.

In closing, unless Sacramento trades for an All-Star level wing, or at least a player capable of guarding the postseason threats, envision a consecutive one-and-done playoff appearance.

Indiana Pacers

• Record: 28-23
• Conference Standing: 6th in Eastern Conference

With all due respect, the Indiana Pacers aren't championship contenders yet. Despite trading for 2019 NBA champion Pascal Siakam, Indiana continues to lose as Tyrese Haliburton deals with a pesky hamstring issue. Similar to the Kings, the Pacers lack a defensive threat in a depth chart riddled with efficient offensive players.

Ranked 26th in defensive rating, Indiana will struggle in the postseason if parallel to the New York Knicks or the Cleveland Cavaliers. Theoretically, Myles Turner has the stature of a playoff-built big man. However, this season finds the University of Texas alum in a down year defensively, as he's producing the lowest block percentage (5.2) since his rookie season and has the worst defensive box plus-minus (-0.4) of his nine-year career.

While the Pacers make for an exciting matchup and will likely push their playoff opponent to a thrilling series (similar to last season's Kings), the terrible defense ultimately renders the Pacers a cute story team.

Week 16's Contenders

Milwaukee Bucks

• Record: 33-17
• Conference Standing: 2nd in Western Conference

For as much as I panned the Milwaukee Bucks for hiring Doc Rivers in the middle of the season, frankly, Adrian Griffin had to go. Admittedly, labeling a team as a contender that's 2-3 in their last five games nearly causes a slight cognitive dissonance. I haven't viewed the Bucks as a threat since they hired a rookie head coach in one of the more head-scratching moves of the summer. However, despite my disbelief in such a move, which the Bucks somewhat corrected, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a valid threat regardless of who's coaching.

#Bucks overcome a 25-point deficit to get their first win under Doc Rivers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped 48 points. Dame also had 30 points in a 129-117 win! pic.twitter.com/L96zyHxNrx

— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) February 4, 2024

The Eastern Conference pool of elite teams weakens in light of the Joel Embiid meniscus injury, easing the Bucks' road to the NBA Finals. As aforementioned, the Bucks caused me quite discomfort in electing them as contenders despite the sheer existence of Antetokounmpo. I always mentioned weaker defenses when pinpointing which teams warrant the "pretender" label, and in an unseemly fashion, the Bucks rank 19th in defensive rating.

Perhaps it's not all his fault, but trading the defensive stalwart in Jrue Holiday for the superstar offense of Damian Lillard practically guaranteed Milwaukee's drop in defensive production. Furthermore, electing Malik Beasley as the No. 1 stopper on defense is nearly as condemnable as the Griffin hire. However, despite the dip in defensive efficiency, unless Antetokounmpo experiences another series-altering injury, there aren't many Eastern Conference teams who have the personnel to disturb the 2021 NBA Finals MVP.

Los Angeles Clippers

• Record: 34-15
• Conference Standing: 3rd in Western Conference

Despite starting 0-5 with James Harden in the lineup following the trade with the Sixers, amazingly, the Los Angeles Clippers now sit third in the Western Conference. Los Angeles holds a 10-7 record against fellow above-500 teams in the Western Conference. While such a record doesn't appear all that impressive, perhaps a 6.2 net rating against the Western Conference sits better on your basketball pallet. Using the net rating stat puts the Clippers' elite status in perspective, as they rank higher than the defending champion Denver Nuggets.

Conversely, the veteran NBA analysts understandably will bring up past postseason blunders of Harden to downplay the 2023-2024 campaign of the Clippers. In his 15 seasons in the NBA, Harden had the blessing of suiting up with MVP winners and future Hall of Fame players, and yet his teams fell short of the NBA Finals aside from the 2012 Oklahoma City Thunder.

However, despite Harden's shortcomings as a playoff performer in closeout games, the MVP-level campaign from Kawhi Leonard is the ultimate equalizer. Averaging a career-high 45 percent from the three-point area on 5.2 attempts per game and a career-high mark in true shooting (.641), Leonard most impressively suited up for 45 games so far this season.

You can't make a load management joke about Leonard this season, as he's constantly suiting up. Without having to play iso-ball, with the help from Paul George and Harden, the 2019 NBA Finals MVP registered his highest shooting marks.

In the past 30 Clippers games, Kawhi Leonard has a 25-5 record while averaging:
• 26.4 PPG
• 57% FG
• 51% 3-pt FG
• 92% FT
He’s the first player to average 25 points on 55-50-90 shooting splits over any 30-game span all-time, per @Statswilliams.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) February 6, 2024

Ultimately, the California cocktail mixture of Harden, Leonard, and George, with the garnish of Russell Westbrook, makes for a balanced drink. The bench also provides a punch, with Norman Powell helping with scoring and the center rotation filled by Ivica Zubac, Mason Plumlee, Daniel Theis, and P.J. Tucker, who provide a different dimension at the five-spot.

Unless injuries plague this team, as we've seen almost every season, the combination of elite players and experienced coaching catapult them into contender status.

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