Week 14 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

December 10, 2019

Week 14 brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Ryan Tannehill, Raheem Mostert, Deandre Washington, Benny Snell, and more.

In Week 14, the quarterback position was littered with surprises. Drew Brees dropped over 40 fantasy points on a 49ers Defense that's given up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season and Jameis Winston hung 456 yards and 5 touchdowns on a Colts Defense that's been solid against the pass all year. Mitch Trubisky threw three touchdowns and ran in another finishing as the No. 3 quarterback on the week, while Drew Lock, in his second career start, shredded the Texans secondary to finish in the top 10 at the position. On the high-end, Patrick Mahomes was disappointing this week, finishing with just 14.92 points while Russell Wilson finished outside the top 25 in scoring which is not typical for him.

At wide receiver, A.J. Brown finished as the No. 1 receiver on the week and he did so with just seven targets in the Titans low-volume passing game. For the Saints Michael Thomas came through in a high-scoring game against a 49ers defense that had been limiting opposing wide receivers to the second-fewest fantasy points on the season. For the Colts, two low-end options, Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal, came through finishing with over 19 PPR points against a Buccaneers Defense that's struggled against opposing passing games. D.J. Moore finally cooled off a little bit, scoring just 12.1 PPR points while Devante Parker was unable to take advantage of a great matchup against the Jets, catching just two balls for 28 scoreless yards before getting knocked out of the game with a concussion.

The only curve balls thrown at us at the running back position in Week 14 were Austin Ekeler and Raheem Mostert who both finished inside the top five, but other than that things mostly played out as you would expect. Joe Mixon finished as a top-five running back as the Bengals used six offensive linemen at times to really force the running game and Aaron Jones gained just under 200 yards from scrimmage on 22 touches against a Redskins Defense that has struggled to defend the run. As usual, tight end was rather difficult to navigate this week, but if you took a shot on Ian Thomas with Greg Olsen out of the lineup for Carolina, you were happy with the results. Last week is now in the rearview mirror, and now we need to look ahead and evaluate how to move forward to Week 15.

Drew Brees (QB, NO)

Week 14 Stats: 29-of-40, 349 yards, 5 TD, 1 carry, 1 yard, 1 TD

In Week 14 Drew Brees absolutely destroyed the mighty 49ers defense that had been giving up just 134.2 yards-per-game through the air. The 49ers suffered injuries in the secondary which allowed the Saints pass catchers to get free, including Jared Cook who had two touchdowns off of just two targets before leaving the game due to injury. Alvin Kamara was very bad on the day, carrying the ball 13 times for just 25 yards and Brees stepped up putting the team on his back.

Bottom Line: Brees showed us why he's a future Hall of Fame quarterback that's capable of coming through in any matchup. You always need to think twice about benching Drew Brees, especially when he has an elite receiver like Michael Thomas at his disposal. If the 49ers lose Dee Ford and Richard Sherman for any significant period of time, their defense may not be as formidable as they have been to this point in the season.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)

Week 14 Stats: 21-of-27 , 391 yards, 3 TD, 4 carries, 19 yards

The Raiders have been bad against the pass in 2019 and Ryan Tannehill absolutely shredded them in Week 14. Even though he plays in a low-volume passing offense, Tannehill has proven capable of coming through if he has a decent matchup. Teams are so focused on stopping Derrick Henry they are making Tannehill beat them, and he has been for the most part.

Bottom Line: The Titans face a Texans Defense in Week 15 that has been giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks which makes Tannehill a very viable option if you haven't already reached that conclusion.

Raheem Mostert (RB, SF)

Week 14 Stats: 10 carries, 69 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 catches 40 yards, 1 TD

Raheem Mostert may have finished as a top-five running back in Week 14 but he did so while playing under 60% of the snaps after playing over 70% of the snaps in Week 13. Mostert finished with 24.9 PPR points on the week and just under 50% of those points came from touchdowns, with one of his scores coming off of a long pass from Emmanuel Sanders.

Bottom Line: Mostert has now come through two weeks in a row but he actually saw a reduction in snaps from Week 13 to Week 14 and a large portion of his fantasy points in Week 14 came off of a trick play. I would be extremely hesitant leaning on Mostert over more proven options heading into Week 15. Mostert should be in the conversation with guys like Benny Snell Jr. and Sony Michel, just don't get too carried away chasing the points.

Deandre Washington (RB, OAK)

Week 14 Stats: 14 carries, 53 yards, 1 TD, 7 targets, 6 catches, 43 yards

Josh Jacobs missed Oakland's Week 14 matchup against the Tennessee Titans and DeAndre Washington took full advantage of his absence, gaining 96 total yards and scoring a touchdown.

Bottom Line: Washington played 63.5% of the snaps on Sunday and if Jacobs misses more time due to injury, he will be a viable option for the fantasy playoffs. If you need help at running back and Washington is available in your league, you need to make adding him a priority.

David Johnson (RB, ARI)

Week 14 Stats: 3 carries, 19 yards, 2 targets, 2 catches, 34 yards, 1 TD

In Week 14, David Johnson played 36.7% of the snaps, Kenyan Drake played 65% of the snaps and Chase Edmonds played on just 18.3%. The Cardinals clearly still favor Kenyan Drake in this backfield but it's a little concerning to see Johnson and Edmonds in the mix.

Bottom Line: If you were relying on Kenyan Drake for the fantasy playoffs, good luck. Week 14 was likely a case of the Cardinals mixing other running backs in against a tough Steelers Defense, but Johnson's snap count is still a little concerning and you would be wise to monitor reports out of Arizona throughout the week.

Benny Snell Jr. (RB, PIT)

Week 14 Stats: 16 carries, 41 yards, 1 fumble

In Week 14 Benny Snell was completely ineffective against a Cardinals Defense that had been giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Snell fumbled once and played just 40% of the snaps. The fumble didn't appear to play any role in Snell's snap share as he played on just under 40% of snaps in Week 13 and just 48.6% of the snaps in Week 12 against the Bengals.

Bottom Line: Benny Snell Jr. reminded us that he's not an elite talent and although he will get volume if James Conner remains out, you should only play him if you don't have a better option regardless of the matchup.

Marcus Johnson (WR, IND)

Week 14 Stats: 7 targets, 3 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD

With T.Y. Hilton out of the game Marcus Johnson took advantage of a great matchup, played on just under 90% of the snaps, and scored a touchdown from over 40 yards out.

Bottom Line: Marcus Johnson has speed and is a legitimate deep threat. However, he's not a stud and can only be trusted in deeper leagues if the matchup is right. Johnson will face a Saints Defense in Week 15 which gives up the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Breshad Perriman (WR, TB)

Week 14 Stats: 5 targets, 3 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD

Mike Evans suffered a hamstring injury in Week 14 and missed most of the game. As a result, Breshad Perriman played on 83.3% of the Buccaneers offensive snaps which was a season-high for him.

Bottom Line: It's been reported that Mike Evans may miss the remainder of the season which makes Perriman a viable option for the fantasy playoffs. The Buccaneers face the Lions in Week 15 which is a very good matchup and Perriman could be a league winner if you're in trouble at wide receiver, but don't get too crazy and start him over a solid option such as D.J. Moore. It's also worth noting that O.J. Howard had a decent game and did his damage after Evans went down.

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