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With the All-Star game approaching and the annual MVP discussion heating up, the NBA is at its halfway point.
While current playoff seedings slightly represent the league's hierarchy, a few teams come to mind when indicating which team's regular season success potentially translates to playoff wins and who's solely a regular season product and not a legitimate NBA Finals contender.
As the early-season honeymoon stage fades and the ramp-up to the playoff race heats up, RotoBaller will provide you with a weekly update on who we see as the contenders and pretenders of the league. Without further ado, here are the Week 14 NBA contenders and pretenders.
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Week 14's Pretenders
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Record: 26-15
- Conference Standing: 4th in Eastern Conference
Despite the recent success of the Cleveland Cavaliers, too many signs point to the current Eastern Conference four-seed being a pretender. Firstly, Cleveland is barely above water against potential Eastern Conference playoff teams in light of its 10-8 record against such opponents.
Secondly, the Cavaliers' core lacks opposing players with significant playoff success. While Donovan Mitchell has plenty of playoff games under his belt, aside from his legendary bubble postseason performance against the Denver Nuggets, too many times did the Adidas signature athlete fold in his previous two playoff outings. Mitchell's last playoff campaign in Utah provided his worst showing in a condemning -39 plus-minus against the Dallas Mavericks in 2022.
Conversely, the Cavaliers have a decent squad, considering the injuries they've weathered with Darius Garland and Evan Mobley currently sidelined. It's passable to call the Cavaliers an adequate team in the league, but they hold pretender status in the Eastern Conference.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Record: 30-13
- Conference Standing: 1st in Western Conference
I know what you're thinking. How could someone consider a No.1 seed in the best conference to be anything but legitimate? Yes, the Minnesota Timberwolves hold the No.1 ranked defensive rating in the league and the fifth-best net rating. But how can you claim championship contender status in 2024 with a 19th-ranked offensive rating? Aside from regular season statistics, the Timberwolves' tattered playoff history, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns as a part of the nucleus, renders championship possibilities shaky.
Anthony Edwards as a No.1 option on a contender seems right. Still, the fact the Timberwolves can't muster an average offense in the regular season leaves me to believe the defense-focused team will fold when facing hyper-focused playoff opponents. Of course, Minnesota's 12-5 record against playoff and play-in eligible eligible teams laughs in the face of all the points I made. The Miami Heat is the only franchise of the past 17 years, aside from the criminally undertalented 2007 Cavaliers seasons, to earn an NBA Finals berth despite ranking as a below-average offense.
Towns is undoubtedly an All-Star, but it's impossible not to reference the disappointed mood surrounding the team after he scored a career-high 62 points in a losing effort vs. the Charlotte Hornets. Minnesota's head coach, Chris Finch, openly scorned the three-time All-Star's "immature performance" on Monday night. It's hard to take the Timberwolves seriously with such a player as Towns in such an important role.
There's more:pic.twitter.com/yRdNAKR61o
— Oh no he didn't (@ohnohedidnt24) January 23, 2024
On the surface, it's understandable why analysts have faith in Minnesota as a title contender, as they have a fun superstar and a supreme defense led by Rudy Gobert, who is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner. However, in light of the rich history suggesting such a team has little to no probability of making it to the Finals, I have to see more from the Timberwolves to perceive them as a threat to win it all.
Week 14's Contenders
Denver Nuggets
- Record: 30-14
- Conference Standing: 3rd in Western Conference
Nikola Jokic is the best basketball player in the world; even reigning MVP Joel Embiid knows it. In the NBA, the team equipped with the premier player typically hoists the Larry O'Brien trophy. Aside from stating the obvious takes of your typical pretenders and contenders, RotoBaller understands that the Denver Nuggets defending championship campaign merits a closer look.
Couldn’t be stopped tonight 🃏 pic.twitter.com/ko9YV8XQ85
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) January 22, 2024
Two stats stand out for the Nuggets: free throw attempt rate and turnover percentage. For the former stat, when the refs swallow their whistles during the postseason, excelling without free throws separates the elite from the adequate. Jokic's on-the-fly attack doesn't need a whistle to save the possession. Despite converting a low .235 free throw attempt rate, suitable enough for the 28th-best in the NBA, the Nuggets proudly maintain the seventh-ranked offensive rating.
The latter stat that points to Denver's championship pedigree, mainly thanks to the continuity in the Nuggets roster, is the 11.1 turnover percentage (ninth-ranked). The Nuggets seldom end a possession on a play not designed by their offense or manipulated by the opposing defense. Jokic gets anywhere he wants regardless of the defender, Jamal Murray doesn't take too many liberties while passing, and Michael Porter Jr. either shoots the ball, dishes to a teammate or makes a quick cut to the basket. If it's not Jokic or Murray dribbling, Denver's role players stay within their assignments, decreasing the odds of the possession ending in a turnover.
As the reigning NBA champs, it's no shock the Nuggets hold one of the inaugural spots for contender status.
Philadelphia 76ers
- Record: 29-13
- Conference Standing: 3rd in Eastern Conference
Calling a nucleus of players who've never berthed a trip to a Conference Finals seems like a questionable decision, especially considering what I said of Minnesota's status as pretenders. However, noting the Philadelphia 76ers' top-six offensive and defensive rating negates any retorts directed at such a decision. Also, Philadelphia made a few significant moves to bolster its postseason chances: hired a creative head coach in Nick Nurse and rid themselves of future James Harden antics.
Ironically, a prime reason I'm looking at Philadelphia in a new light is the one constant in the city of brotherly love, Joel Embiid. The reigning MVP is arguably having a better season than his MVP campaign. Coming off a franchise-high 70 points against the San Antonio Spurs and the supposed future of the league, Victor Wembanyama, Embiid secured another impressive feat by scoring at least 30 points in 21 consecutive contests.
Joel Embiid has set the Philadelphia 76ers franchise record for points in a single game (70) pic.twitter.com/hcn1NAzGdZ
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) January 23, 2024
Aside from passing up NBA legend Wilt Chamberlain in scoring accomplishments, more importantly, the Sixers silenced critics by beating the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets. While one can't erase the numerous postseason failures of Embiid's career, this Philadelphia team appears different, as it feels more balanced, as evidenced by four players averaging double-digit scoring figures.
Although Embiid deserves high praise for his continued greatness, his young and enchanted teammate Tyrese Maxey, no stranger to explosive scoring performances, the Dallas, Texas native dropped 50 points in a victory over the Indiana Pacers on November 12.
Unlike Embiid's past star teammates, not including Jimmy Butler, Maxey has a thunderbolt speed and a respectable shooting touch. Admittedly, Embiid's past postseason mishaps still burn in my memory, but this team feels and looks different, which encouraged a change of heart regarding my feelings toward the habitual pretenders.
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