Week 13 Rankings Analysis - Pierre Camus vs. Industry Consensus

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Who says 13 is an unlucky number? Lots of people actually, but they'd be wrong. Triskaidekaphobia is surprisingly common, but ultimately meaningless. In fact, many cultures view the number 13 is tied to good fortune. Regardless of what you believe, you'll surely attribute your fantasy football fate this week to luck and/or the spite of the gods. In which case you would be right. Prepare all you want, but in the end we have no control over what happens on the field and no true way to forecast it. That said, here are my best conjectures as to who will perform above or below the norm in Week 13.

As an expert ranker for RotoBaller and FantasyPros, I'll put my own personal rankings out on the table for you here and show you how they stack up against the consensus of the other 100+ experts at FantasyPros. Each week, I'll list my Top 10 per position, plus a few notable players that have risen or fallen in my rankings more than the expert consensus this week. In other words, it's where I zig when the others zag.

Note: all rankings are for standard leagues and all opinions are my own. If you have questions, comments, or incoherent ramblings related to fantasy sports, hit me up on Twitter @pfunk00 to continue the conversation.

Editor's note: Our friends at DraftEasy are giving you a FREE shot to win $50. Just pick four correct NFL player matchups and win! Try It Now!

 

Week 13 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

What's amazing about Carson Wentz is that the Eagles rank in the bottom-10 for passing play tendencies, yet he's a top-three fantasy QB regardless of scoring format. He's not getting by on volume, but great efficiency instead. A 28:5 TD:INT rate is good enough to make up for the fact that he doesn't even rank in the top 10 for passing yards per game. He's an easy pick as the overall QB2 against a depleted Seattle secondary that shouldn't scare anyone away.

Case Keenum has made his case to be the starting QB in Minnesota; there should be no more concerns about getting pulled for Teddy Bridgewater, even if he blows up with a bad game. The Falcons appear to be fairly good against the pass in terms of yardage allowed (eighth-fewest), but according to FootballOutsiders they are now the 25th-ranked defense using DVOA and dead-last against the run. This is also the reason I have the suddenly surging Latavius Murray higher in my rankings than the consensus (see below). If the Falcons have really rediscovered their offense as it appears, that coupled with the return of Devonta Freeman could push the Vikings to do more on offense than they'd like.

Deviation from expert consensus

What do we do with Trevor Siemian? After Week 2, he was being added at the same rate as Alex Smith, but both quickly turned back into pumpkins before Fall was over. He'll never be a great quarterback and may not be the starter past this year, but he sure has a great matchup. The Dolphins are just as big of a mess as the Broncos despite a slightly better record. Siemian is only worth a look in two-QB or superflex leagues, but he is a safer bet than Blaine Gabbert or Jacoby Brissett this week.

 

Week 13 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

Last week's disaster by Jordan Howard won't have any sort of impact on this week's ranking. The Eagles simply refuse to allow running backs any room to run and they've shutdown every elite RB they faced. Howard will swing to the opposite end of the spectrum when he faces the 49ers, who are the 30th-ranked rush defense in the league. Howard still ranks third in rush attempts with 199 this season and will get all he can handle in Week 13.

I find it hard to believe that Samaje Perine has made it into my Top 10 at any point this season, but a running back's value is almost always driven by usage--the exception being Alvin Kamara. Perine has gone over 100 yards in consecutive starts and faces a reeling Cowboys team. If you snagged Perine off waivers a couple weeks ago, hold tight and take advantage.

Deviation from expert consensus

Looking at his numbers from the past few weeks, it's a wonder DeMarco Murray hasn't been benched in favor of Derrick Henry yet. Since the Week 8 bye, he's totaled 80 rushing yards on less than two yards per carry. In his matchup with the Texans earlier this year, he ran just seven times for 31 yards and didn't score. Yet here I am bumping him up in my rankings for Week 13. The fact remains that as long as he can walk on two legs, Murray will be the starter and he has a good chance to find the end zone. That Week 4 matchup with the Texans was Deshaun Watson's record-setting blowout performance where the Titans were behind all game long. That ain't happenin' again. Murray is also sustaining somewhat of a floor in PPR leagues with three receptions per game. I don't expect a huge game, but I'm not taking him out of the RB2 conversation altogether in favor of someone like Kenyan Drake or Jerick McKinnon who need an explosive play to gain value.

 

Week 13 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

Robby Anderson can't be denied any longer. He's still riding a five-game touchdown stream and squares off against the toastable Marcus Peters on Sunday. Anderson takes the place of Michael Thomas, who has been on an anti-touchdown streak for seven games now. The floor is still there in PPR, but at some point you simply have to defer to the guy who's crossing the goal-line consistently.

Deviation from expert consensus

Marquise Goodwin is the de facto WR1 in San Francisco. He played 76% of the offensive snaps in Week 12 and leads the team in targets since Pierre Garcon was ruled out for the year. That may not mean much these days, but Jimmy Garropolo delivers some hope. Track star Goodwin leads the league at 21.4 yards per catch and only needs one well-placed ball to go the distance. I would take him as a flex over middling possession receivers like Jeremy Maclin, Jermaine Kearse or Dontrelle Inman.

That said, Inman has a great matchup this week and is growing a bigger role in his new offense, so he could serve as a desperation flex in PPR as well. If you really want to swing for the fences, which, as a baseball fan too I totally do, Cordarrelle Patterson is starting in Oakland this week against the worst-coached team in the league. Pick your poison!

 

Week 13 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

My Top 10 

Will Jared Cook see 10 or more targets for the first time in a Raiders uniform? Both starting receivers are out and we all know by now that the Giants are blind to tight ends on defense. He's the chalkiest of plays, but one that can't be ignored.

Charles Clay, on the other hand, could be a sneaky value if he plays. He's once again questionable with a knee injury, but seems on track to suit up at the moment. If so, he could have a field day against the Patriots, who plan to key in on LeSean McCoy at all costs. Clay went for 60 yards last week and could see a lot more volume out of necessity. There's always a risk with him, so only deploy in DFS tournaments or leagues where you don't already own a top-10 TE.

Deviation from expert consensus

Julius Thomas is actually getting more involved, although the numbers haven't been too significant. Cutler and Thomas facing their former team, the Broncos, is actually a very good thing as they are barely worse than the Giants in defending TEs, with 119 fantasy points against.

The Giants' own Evan Engram is probably the biggest victim among skill players as far as the benching of Eli Manning is concerned. He'd been declining the last three weeks anyway, coming in as the TE18 in that span. If you have any faith whatsoever left in that franchise or Geno Smith, you're welcome to roll with him. Otherwise, there's a certain Ricky Seals-Jones that demands your attention.

 

More Week 13 Lineup Prep


Check out all of RotoBaller's 2017 fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.