Week 11 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

November 17, 2018

Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data to help make start/sit lineup decisions. Ben Rolfe analyzes the first 10 weeks of NFL player data.

I cannot believe it is Week 11 already! This season has flown by and things in the NFL are starting to settle down. The good teams are really starting to distinguish from bad and the pretenders are falling away a little bit. The same goes for the players in the consistency ratings. The best running backs, wide receivers and tight ends have all risen to the top and the pretenders are falling further down the rankings. Quarterback is a little different due to the nature of the position this year. When players regularly score in the 20s an outlier in the low teens or even close to single digits has a major effect. Even for the best quarterbacks, this can happen if their teams build a big lead early and their offense throttles back somewhat. So while I would use the other positions at face value be sure to take in the whole of the top-20 at quarterback because there are some great players sitting in the high teens.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Quarterbacks

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. Alex Smith continues to be one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league for fantasy owners. However, with a ceiling five or more points lower than anyone else in the top-10 he is somewhat of a false top-10 option. In two-quarterback leagues where you need safety and consistency from that second quarterback position he is perfect. In one quarterback leagues not so much.

Interestingly Philip Rivers also has some of that about him this season. Rivers has a ceiling of under 24 fantasy points, which is at least a couple of points behind most of the rest of the top-15. That would be fine if his floor was significantly above the others, but it is not. It may seem crazy given their record but there is a case to be made that Rivers is a quarterback that is hard to start on a week-to-week basis.

Tom Brady is sliding down these rankings and I looked at why that is happening and what you should do about it here. On the other hand, a name lower down this list that needs serious consideration is Dak Prescott. Prescott's fantasy points over the last four games are 33, 21, 18 and 22, which is among the top-10 quarterbacks in that time frame. In addition, his schedule going forward is incredibly favorable, with four opponents ranked in the top-10 for most fantasy points surrendered to the QB position, and only one team among the 10 best.

Running Backs

Elijah McGuire is obviously a false number one here because he has only played two games. However, he is a player who should be added in most leagues with Crowell struggling to put up yards and McGuire fresh after missing the first eight games of the season with injury. He is really the only player in the top-14 who is somewhat false.

I wanted to discuss Marshawn Lynch being 15th as a way to highlight that Doug Martin could have some nice games down the stretch. While much of this Raiders team seem to be done with the year Martin is auditioning for his future and the Raiders have been able to get decent yardage at times this season.

It is nice to see Kerryon Johnson in the top-20 and with the Detroit season slipping away I think they get him involved more and more as they look to the future. We could see a similar story with Ito Smith as the Falcons need to make a decision about Tevin Coleman this year. Therefore, if the Falcons season slips away we may see more carries for Smith and then he would become an interesting weekly flex play. It is not the case this week but if they lose to the Cowboys it could be time soon.

Wide Receivers

There is not much to say about the top-12 here. I have spoken about Willie Snead and how his consistency makes him a flex play. This week is a little different with the question marks around who will take snaps under center. If it is Flacco then Snead is a fine play but we often see weird target patters when backups take snaps, as they often tend to target guys they have comfort with from practice.

With 11 targets, 10 receptions and 93 yards in the last two games Dontrelle Inman could be an interesting option down the stretch. Outside of Hilton, Luck has struggled to find a receiver he can trust and if Inman could be that guy then he could regularly see five or more targets down the stretch.

Mike Evans is absolutely falling away here and the constant quarterback changes are a big part of the reason. He is a quality receiver but that situation in Tampa Bay seems somewhat toxic. I hope that is the case rather than this being a sign of worrying things to come for Evans. Alshon Jeffery is a frustrating name because of the mouths to feed in Philadelphia, a problem which has simply transferred from the Lions with Golden Tate's move. However, in Philly it is even worse with Zack Ertz also demanding plenty of targets as well as the receiving trio.

A final note on Demaryius Thomas, who has now had a bye week to get to grip with this offense. The Texans face a tough matchup with the Redskins so this is not the week to play him if you can avoid it. However, what I need to see is a solid target share and regular snaps to feel confident he can be a contributor down the stretch. Oh and Tennessee please target Corey Davis at least 10 times a game for the rest of the season. The dude is a monster and if he is a regular part of this offense he is a WR2 every week.

Tight Ends

We finish with the position that involves a lot of closing your eyes and pointing at one and hoping. We have three consistent options in Ertz, Kelce and Kittle. We have the guy I have no clue about in Ebron, who seemingly gets all the touchdowns for the Colts despite Jack Doyle being the clear number one. We then have nine guys (Reed, Olsen, Howard, Rudolph, Hooper, Burton, Cook and Doyle) who I feel confident in using when they are active. Then there is Gronkowski, who will always be someone you desperately want to start when he is active but his value is so dependent on game situation that it is frustrating.

Outside of that group I like Ben Watson, Ricky Seals-Jones and Vance McDonald as semi-streaming options and we have Evan Engram and David Njoku as the talented guys who do not get enough targets right now. However, that might be about ti change for Engram!

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