Week 10 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

November 12, 2019

Week 10 of the 2019 fantasy football season brought surprises and unexpected sleepers, busts. Mike Riggall analyzes common overreactions to such performances.

In Week 10, Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas all had beatable cornerback matchups and finished as the top-four wide receivers in PPR scoring. At running back, Derrick Henry exploited a poor Chiefs run defense and rumbled for 188 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 running back on the week. Ronald Jones II touched the ball 19 times and finished as a top-five running back in PPR, while Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey rounded out the top five, which is not surprising. The quarterback position played out as expected for the most part, including a "get well" performance by Mitch Trubisky who threw for 173 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions.

Week 10 also had its fair share of disappointments, including Robby Anderson who had a great matchup against a struggling Giants secondary and only mustered a single catch and 11 yards off three targets. At this point, if you haven't already reached this conclusion, you simply cannot count on Anderson unless you're desperate. Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had good matchups against the Cardinals secondary, and although both put up decent yardage totals, Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones II, and OJ Howard were responsible for the scoring in this one, so both of the Buccaneers receivers came up a bit small. Marlon Mack was expected to have a big week against a Dolphins Defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs in the league, but he was only able to muster 9.2 PPR points, finishing as an RB2.

The tight end position was fairly predictable for the most part in Week 10. Austin Hooper went up against a tough Saints Defense and was still able to come through as a low-end TE1. OJ Howard has been terrible for fantasy owners through the first nine weeks of the season, but he came through in a big way against the Cardinals Defense which gives up the most fantasy points to tight ends. With George Kittle and now Austin Hooper banged up, an already tough position to navigate just got a little more complicated. Last week is now in the rearview mirror, and now we need to look ahead and evaluate how to move forward to Week 11.

Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)

Week 10 Stats: 30 carries, 114 yards, 3 targets, 2 catches, 27 yards

Joe Mixon ran well from the start against the Ravens in Week 10, gaining solid yardage after initial contact, and the Bengals offensive line appeared to do a decent job. Even though the Bengals were down big late in the game, they continued to feed the ball to Mixon, who saw 32 touches in the contest, amassing 141 yards of total offense.

Bottom Line: The Bengals clearly committed to running the ball for the entire game regardless of the score in an effort to get a decent evaluation on Ryan Finley. Mixon demonstrated that he's an elite NFL talent that's capable of putting up huge numbers if given decent volume. In redraft leagues, you should give strong consideration to selling high on Mixon if your league's trade deadline hasn't already passed. If you're in a dynasty or keeper format, this game should give you reassurance that Mixon will be a decent fantasy football running back once the Bengals get healthy on the offensive line.

Le'Veon Bell (RB, NYJ)

Week 10 Stats: 18 carries, 34 yards, 1 TD, 4 targets, 4 catches, 34 yards

The Jets offensive line has struggled all year and Le'Veon Bell continues to come up small unless he scores a touchdown. Bell touched the ball 22 times in Week 10 and if he didn't score the touchdown, he would have put up just 10.8 points in PPR which is not what you're looking for in an RB1.

Bottom Line: Sell high on Le'Veon Bell in redraft leagues.

Brian Hill (RB, ATL)

Week 10 Stats: 20 carries, 61 yards, 2 targets, 1 catch, 10 yards, 1 TD

Devonta Freeman went down with an ankle injury against the Saints and Brian Hill assumed the lead-back role in his absence. Hill averaged just over three yards-per-carry but he did touch the ball 21 times and scored.

Bottom Line: Ito Smith was just placed on injured reserve, so if Freeman misses significant time, it should be the Brian Hill show down in Atlanta.

Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)

Week 10 Stats: 1 target, 1 catch, 63 yards, 1 TD

Mecole Hardman has elite speed and he demonstrated that speed on his lone catch of the game which he took 63 yards to the house. On the play, Mahomes was scrambling away from the rush, jumped, and threw a pass to Hardman who took care of the rest with his speed.

Bottom Line: Hardman cannot be trusted on a week-to-week basis unless there's an injury to one of the other Chiefs receivers. Hardman only played 22% of the snaps this week and simply isn't playing enough snaps to be fantasy viable.

Andy Isabella (WR, ARI)

Week 10 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 78 yards

Andy Isabella caught a long pass of over 40 yards for a second week in a row. In Week 10 against the Buccaneers, 55 of Isabella's 78 yards came on one play.

Bottom Line: Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk are the only Cardinals wide receivers that are playing meaningful snaps this season. Isabella played on a season-high 37.1% of the offensive snaps this week, but has shown playmaking ability over the last few weeks. Fellow rookie receiver Keesean Johnson played just over 50% of the snaps in Week 10 but he failed to record a single catch. Isabella is an explosive playmaker and may be viable down the stretch if he starts earning more snaps.

Adam Humphries (WR, TEN)

Week 10 Stats: 1 target, 1 catch, 23 yards, 1 TD

Adam Humphries was held without a catch for the entire game until he caught the game-winning pass which he took in for a touchdown. Ryan Tannehill loves throwing the ball to his slot receivers and Humphries demonstrated why the Titans signed him to a lucrative free-agent deal this offseason.

Bottom Line: The Titans want to run the ball first and foremost and only put the ball in the air 19 times in this contest, which makes using any Titans wide receiver a risky proposition.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)

Week 10 Stats: 4 targets, 3 catches, 9 yards, 2 TD

Kyle Rudolph put up 17.9 points in PPR scoring this week, finishing as the No. 3 tight end on the week. Rudolph did so while registering under 10 receiving yards off just four targets.

Bottom Line: Rudolph now has 68.4 PPR points on the season. Of those 68.4 points, 35.1% of those points came off of touchdowns and 23.25% came in Week 10 alone. If you counted on Rudolph to help you get through the Week 10 bye weeks, then good for you, but you should probably consider other options moving forward.

Ben Braunecker (TE, CHI)

Week 10 Stats: 1 target, 1 catch, 18 yards, 1 TD

Trey Burton went down early for the Bears in Week 10 which opened up more work for Ben Braunecker who played over 20% of the Bears offensive snaps for just the second time this season.

Bottom Line: Trey Burton's status needs to be monitored throughout the week to determine whether he will play in Week 11. Even if Burton doesn't play, Braunecker would be a risky tight end play given the volatile play of Mitch Trubisky.

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