RADIO
Man there has been a lot of crazy stuff going on in baseball this past week. You would think that John Means throwing the third no-hitter of the season would be the biggest story of the week, but the very next day you have future Hall-of-Famer Albert Pujols get designated for assignment in the midst of the final year of his contract. At this point I'm just waiting for the inevitable announcement that the White Sox have signed Pujols to a one-year deal, continuing the tradition of signing washed-up future Hall of Fame players.
But in the midst of these storylines, we've had some good two-start performances going on. Closing the book on Week 5's streamers, Trevor Rogers was the clear winner from that column, going 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.182 WHIP and 13 strikeouts. And looking at the Week 6 two-start streamers, Kyle Gibson is the current frontrunner after allowing three runs in eight innings while striking out eight against the Twins. In that column I had mentioned that managers should consider grabbing Tyler Anderson as well and doubling him up with one of the other two-start streamers, and while he took the loss against the Padres, it was through little fault of his own as he allowed just two runs in 5 2/3 innings while striking out five.
Looking towards Week 7, there were quite a few good options available in the 25 to 50 percent rostered range, so it was hard to limit it to just two guys. In the under 25-percent rostered category though, there weren't as many great options to consider. That being said, there's still some value to be found on the waiver-wire, so let's check it out.
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Week 7 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Madison Bumgarner, ARI - 56% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs MIA, vs WSN
So when I first picked out the guys to write about this week, Bumgarner was rostered in 50 percent of leagues. But after his start on Thursday in which he allowed one run in six innings while striking out seven against the Marlins, his rostered rate has already jumped up six percent. And I can't say that's much of a surprise, as Bumgarner has looked like a completely different pitcher on the mound over his last four starts.
After opening the season by allowing five or more runs in each of his first three appearances, Bumgarner is now 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 23 innings of work over his last four starts — including his unofficial seven-inning no-hitter against the Braves. It seems like Bumgarner is finally seeing some course correction in his numbers, as his 3.93 xERA suggests he's been somewhat unlucky compared to his current 4.91 ERA.
This week it's going to be a pair of rematches for Bumgarner, as he will start at home against the Marlins and the Nationals. He's faced off against both teams during his recent hot stretch, limiting both the Marlins and Nationals to one run each while allowing a combined four hits and one walk over 11 innings between the two starts. The Marlins will likely be the better matchup of the two starts this week, as they own the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 25.7 percent while also hitting worse on the road (.215) than at home (.249).
The matchup with Washington could be a little bit more difficult however, as not only are they top-10 in the majors in average (.247) and on-base percentage (.317), they are also hitting slightly better on the road (.251) than at home (.244). Juan Soto should also be back in the Nationals lineup by then to provide a boost in offense, however he was also in the lineup in Bumgarner's previous start against Washington in which he held them to one run on two hits and one walk in five innings of work.
Bumgarner looks like he's trending upwards right now, and I like both of his matchups this week. I totally get hesitation from managers who are concerned that he'll fall back into his early season struggles, but he's worth grabbing and starting this week in any format.
Dylan Cease, CHW - 54% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs MIN, vs KCR
Much like with Bumgarner, Cease had been sitting at a 44 percent rostered rate earlier in the week, but after his 11-strikeout performance against Cincinnati on Monday he's seen his rostered-rate jump up 10 percent. I'm kicking myself right now for not bringing him up in last week's column, and even moreso for leaving him on my bench in the staff league. But it was hard to see this sudden turnaround for Cease. After failing to complete five full innings in each of his first four starts and opening the year with a 4.15 ERA, Cease has pitched 13 straight scoreless innings against Detroit and Cincinnati, allowing just four hits and three walks while striking out 20.
Now Cease will get a pair of starts at home against the Twins and the Royals in Week 7. That start against Minnesota could be a difficult one for Cease, as he is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in three career starts against the Twins. On top of that the Twins are ninth in the majors with a .238 average and a .722 OPS, and they are hitting better on the road this year (.257/.313/.450) than at home (.223/.300/.388).
Cease will get a slight boost against Minnesota as they are hitting slightly worse against right-handed pitchers (.232) than against lefties (.251), but it's still looking to be a tough matchup to start the week. If Cease can get out of that matchup relatively unscathed, he'll have a much better start to close out the week going against Kansas City. Not only are the Royals striking out at a higher rate against right-handed pitchers (23.6%) than against left-handers (17.9%), they are also hitting far worse on the road this year (.213/.283/.343) than at home (.256/.325/.435).
This week will go a long way towards showing whether Cease has hit his groove or just lucked into a couple good starts. If he puts up similar numbers this week to what he's had in his last two starts, managers should strongly consider rostering him full-time beyond Week 7.
Week 7 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Casey Mize, DET - 17% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs KCR, vs CHC
Now we get into the riskier plays this week, starting with Mize. He hasn't had the greatest start to the year, going 1-3 with a 4.41 ERA and 16.3 percent strikeout rate through six starts. His Statcast numbers don't show much promise either, as his 5.37 xERA ranks him in the 19th percentile, while his .279 xBA and .489 xSLG rank him in the 23rd and 27th percentiles respectively. I think he has some promise this week though, especially with his second start against the Cubs.
He struggled in his last start against Kansas City, allowing six runs in 4 2/3 innings to earn his second loss of the year. Mize will theoretically get the same split benefits that Cease has against Kansas City, however his rough start against the Royals this year also came at home, so it's hard to put too much faith into those splits. It's his start against the Cubs that I think will be his best outing of the week, as the Cubs have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the majors (27%) and they are hitting worse against right-handers (.218/.309/.391) than against lefties (.242/.333/.452).
Mize is a one-good-start, one-bad-start streamer this week. If he can continue his success from his past two outings in which he has allowed four runs while striking out nine in 12 innings of work, I think he can put up better numbers in his rematch with the Royals, and prove to be a solid streaming option in deeper leagues.
Luis Garcia, HOU - 5% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs LAA, vs TEX
Garcia has bounced back and forth between starting and coming out of the bullpen, but when he's gotten the start he's done well in spite of an 0-2 record. Over four starts Garcia has a 3.86 ERA and 27.6 percent strikeout rate in 18 2/3 innings, as he has an overall ERA of 3.28 and strikeout rate of 28 percent across six appearances this year. He'll open up Week 7 by making his third appearance against the Angels, as he'll look for better results after posting a 5.40 ERA with just one strikeout in his first five innings against them.
Garcia could get a slight boost this week as he's pitched better at home (2.92 ERA, 30.6 K%) than on the road (3.28 ERA, 22 K%) through his career, plus the Angels offense has been slumping over their last six games, slashing .230/.313/.398 with a 23.1 percent strikeout rate in that span. His start against Texas should prove to be a better outing for Garcia, as the Rangers' 27.3 percent strikeout rate is third-highest in the majors while their .692 OPS is the 12th-lowest. Garcia is the biggest unknown out of the three guys in this section, but I think he could have some decent upside this week. I would consider targeting Garcia first before Mize this week.
Martin Perez, BOS - 5% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ BAL, vs LAA
After a slow start to the season, Perez has shown signs of life in his last two starts against Texas and Detroit, posting a 2.38 ERA while striking out 13 in 11 1/3 innings of work. While his 21.4 percent strikeout rate to start the year only ranks him in the 34th percentile, it's still a marked improvement for Perez as it is over three percent higher than his career-best mark. He'll start his Week 7 by facing a Baltimore Orioles squad that currently sports the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 25 percent, while their .659 OPS is fourth-worst behind only Pittsburgh, Seattle and Detroit.
It should still be a good start for Perez, however they are hitting better against left-handers (.270/.310/.423) than against right-handers (.205/.275/.346). Meanwhile it's the opposite case with the Angels, as they are slashing .232/.307/.390 against lefties versus a .266/.320/.437 line against right-handers. I like Perez's potential this week against a couple of week opponents, and between him, Mize and Garcia, Perez has the better potential to earn the win in at least one — if not both — of his starts.
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