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Top NFL Betting Expert Picks for Week 4 (9/29/19)


Week 3 was another week where we saw green in the "settled bets" section. That's what this is all about. There have been twists and turns through every week, but that is what makes the research fun. A huge part of the enjoyment of betting on football games is the hot-and-heavy grind of doing the research each week.

I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet.  Let's get to my favorite NFL week 4 bets:

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Washington at NY Giants (-3)

O/U: 49.5

Case Keenum shouldn’t be starting games in the NFL in 2019, but had been solid up until he played the Bears last week. Chris Thompson and Adrian Peterson form a solid complement in the backfield, but neither will take over a game. It’s hard not to note Terry McLaurin, the rookie receiver who has been electric thus far with three touchdowns. Defensively, Washington has allowed the same amount of points as the Giants (94) through three games, but the Redskins front seven does their talented secondary no good.

The Giants as an organization are in a weird spot. It’s the first season since 2004 that Eli Manning isn’t their quarterback, and now they’re without franchise player and elite running back Saquon Barkley. However, rookie Daniel Jones was great in his first start, throwing for 336 yards and two scores, and they will continue to rely on him to carry the team. He gets to throw to Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram who should help progress his development. On the other side, the Giants Defense is abysmal, allowing 31 points a game to open the year. However, Washington doesn’t possess the offensive talent like Dallas, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay, so look for a better effort  in Week 4.

Yes, both defenses are some of the league’s worst units, so naturally you’d expect points to be scored. The total opened up at 46 and has now climbed 3.5 points. With teams this bad, and banged up, I’ll side with fading the early money. In the last nine times these two have played in the Meadowlands, the total has gone under seven times, including each of the last four. Under, under, under.

Pick: Under 49.5

 

Kansas City at Detroit  (+6.5)

O/U: 55

There’s not much to say about Kansas City that hasn’t already been said. Even without starters Damien Williams and Tyreek Hill, this offense is elite. LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams did just fine on the ground in Week 3, while Patrick Mahomes hasn’t skipped a beat with Demarcus Robinson, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman, and somewhere looming in there is Travis Kelce. Defensively, the Cheifs have surrendered over 460 yards in all three games thus far, which leaves them prone to some shootouts. However, they’ve actually done a solid job getting to the quarterbacks with seven sacks.

The Lions are a team reeling with confidence after back-to-back, close wins. Matthew Stafford is healthy and has weapons in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. However, Kerryon Johnson has yet to really get the ground-game going despite a steady offensive line. The Lions Defense might actually be one of the most underrated units in football, but they haven’t had to play an offense like Kansas City yet, and it will be interesting to see how they respond at home.

Quite frankly, Detroit just doesn’t have the fire power to keep up with Kansas City’s attack. They can definitely give the Chiefs some fits, but I see KC getting up quick and Detroit being forced to play catchup, which won’t bode well for that offense. Add in that KC is 7-2-1 ATS on the road since the beginning of 2018.

Pick: Kansas City -6.5

 

Tampa Bay at LA Rams (-9.5)

O/U: 49.5

The Bucs are a really interesting team in 2019. Jameis Winston has been in the league since 2015 and we still don’t know what we’re going to get from him, other than he loves to throw interceptions. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a great receiver combo, but Godwin is banged up, and if the passing game isn’t effective, it’s over before it starts. Defensively, Shaquil Barrett leads the NFL with eight sacks, while as a unit, they’ve forced five turnovers. So far, they've held two of their three opponents to under 300 yards of offense, and if it wasn’t for four turnovers in Week 1 and a few more plays last week, this team could realistically be 3-0.

The Rams are unsurprisingly 3-0 and they really haven’t even sniffed their full potential yet. This passing attack is severely dangerous when they’re on point, and Jared Goff is historically much better at home, so 4/3 TD/INT should improve in Week 4. Also, star running back Todd Gurley isn’t on a touch count, according to Sean McVay, so that’s good to hear, as he has 203 yards and a score so far.

Since Winston came into the league in 2015, Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS in road games where they’re considered underdogs by seven or more points. Meanwhile, LA is 9-14-2 ATS at home since Goff entered the league in 2016. I have no doubts of LA starting the season 4-0, but as long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa Bay can keep this close.

Pick: Tampa Bay +9.5

 

Dallas at New Orleans (-2.5)

O/U: 47

These Cowboys have some real Super Bowl prospects and have done good on it so far with the 3-0 record. Imagine once Ezekiel Elliott gets to full-game speed? I think that happens this week, and the 24-year-old takes over the game. Dallas should have no problems putting up points on a Saints Defense that has allowed 28, 27, and 27 points, respectively through the first three weeks. They’ll get up early in the first half, forcing New Orleans to play comeback, so there’s no reason this first-half line should be .5. Don’t think, just go.

Pick: Dallas -.5 1st Half

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