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Mark Kieffer's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 11th, 2022 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, and stacks.
It's playoff time starting tonight! Because the NHL is making this week full of four-game slates, we have decided at RotoBaller to provide you with some NHL DFS content -- playoff-style!
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/11/22
We have a three-game slate tonight. We have one game starting at 7:00 PM Eastern, one at 7:30 PM Eastern, and one at 9:30 PM Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter. As such, for cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
Playoff Series Context
Here is how the series today stand:
PIT @ NYR || PIT is up 3-1
WSH @ FLA || Series is tied 2-2
DAL @ CGY || Series is tied 2-2
Colorado swept Nashville so they now rest while they wait for the winner of Saint Louis and Minnesota. This slate is going to be awesome as two of the series are tied 2-2 with a team fighting to take control. In other sports, I would question New York's motivation but in a sport like hockey, I know New York is going to play as hard as they can to try to get a win in front of their home crowd to extend the series.
NHL DFS Goalies
Igor Shesterkin - DK $7.8K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
This is a tough pick to make, and I get it. Shesterkin has not been good, especially in the last two games including getting pulled from Game 3. He had the best save percentage on the season. He is playing at home in a must-win game. If he doesn't do well he doesn't do well, but he is still the same guy who had a .950+ SV% in the first two games played after seeing 124 shots combined in those games.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): You can make an argument to roster any goalie on this slate. Markstrom and Bobrovsky would be more of cash game type of plays. Oettinger, Domingue, and Vanecek would be more of your large field GPP plays to get leverage on the field against a likely popular stack.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center, you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below, you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Sidney Crosby- DK $7.3K || FD $8.8K
Opponent - New York Rangers
Do not roster Crosby with Shesterkin. This is a high-end play in the event you are playing a different goalie. Crosby has been on a roll this series having scored two goals, seven assists, and 18 shots on goal in the four games played. In each of the four games, he has scored two or more points.
Mika Zibanejad - DK $6.5K || FD $7.6K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
Zibanejad is the center to play if you do have Shesterkin in your lineup. New York is in a must-win home game. He is a point per game player and the Rangers need some points. This is a slate where Center is kind of weak and these two are the best options. Do not put both in the same lineup and do not roster either against your own goalie.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Barkov (DK $7.5K || FD $9.5K), Lindholm (DK $6.2K || FD $7.5K), Malkin (DK $5.8K || FD $7.4K), Kuznetov (DK $5.3K || FD $6.7K), Strome (DK $4.8K || FD $6.3K), Seguin (DK $4.3K || FD $5.1K), or any other second line or third line center you like.
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off, I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Johnny Gaudreau- DK $6.2K || FD $8.7K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Calgary is starting to come alive and just last game they put up 53 shots on goal last game. Gaudreau has been picking it up the last two games. He has three points and 11 shots on goal in the last two games. In a game Calgary needs, I expect Gaudreau plays well.
Artemi Panarin - DK $6.0K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
I am big on New York. I am expecting them to have a good game and they are priced down compared to some of the other teams out there. Panarin is a point getter. He is a solid cash game player. He does not offer the upside as some of the other players, as he averages 2.35 shots on goal per game. For a GPP you will want more of a goal scorer like a Krieder if you wanted Rangers exposure.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $7.7K || FD $9.8K), Guentzel (DK $7.2K || FD $8.4K), Huberdeau (DK $7.0K || FD $9.2K), Kreider (DK $6.5K || FD $8.1K), Tkachuk (DK $5.9K || FD $8.3K), Rust (DK $5.7K || FD $7.4K), Robertson (DK $5.6K || FD $7.1K), Pavelski (DK $5.0K || FD $6.7K), Vatrano (DK $4.4K || FD $4.8K), Marchment (DK $4.0K || FD $5.7K), Oshie (DK $3.8K || FD $5.3K), Verhaeghe (DK $3.6K || FD $4.7K). There is a lot of choices. The punt options are mostly even. You can pair a winger and a center on the same line in a cash game.
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the second one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Kris Letang - DK $6.0K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - New York Rangers
Letang has arguably the best value of defensemen on the slate. Now that this slate doesn't have Makar nor Josi, it's hard to find a lot of great plays. Letang gets enough points for a floor through blocked shots and when he is in on a goal score, he hits his ceiling. He is viable in cash and GPPs
Jacob Trouba - DK $5.1K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
He is slightly overpriced on FanDuel but is underpriced on DraftKings. What I like about Trouba outside of him being on a power play, he generally gets a decent number of shots on goal and blocked shots to have a nice floor. He has not fared as well recently, having just one blocked shot in each of the last two games and just five shots on goal combined over that same span. He needs to get back on track.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Fox (DK $6.3K || FD $6.8K), Ekblad (DK $6.1K || FD $6.5K), Carlson (DK $5.9K || FD $6.7K), Tanev (DK $3.2K || FD $4.1K). Outside of these guys, I am indifferent on who to roster. If looking elsewhere, find a defenseman that is on a power play if looking for upside. If looking for a punt play that can give you a decent floor, look for the guys who block shots like a Tanev.
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a three-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. There is going to be a chalk/optimal type of a build, you will want to try to get different from that. Florida is implied for 4.0 goals followed by Calgary with 3.4 goals. I would not be surprised to see some combinations around Florida 1-3 and Calgary 1-2.
In a GPP, you are probably going to want to roster either Vanecek or Oettinger to get leverage on those popular stacks. It will lose more often than win but if your goalie comes through, it will help pay off.
I am going to be looking more at Rangers and Capitals for my offense. Florida's goaltending has been shaky in these playoffs and I believe the Rangers are better than they have played. In the scheme of things, 2.7 implied goals (Washington) or 3.2 implied goals (New York), isn't *drastically* different than Calgary's 3.4 implied total.
Another strategy that can work in a large GPP is finding a third line that is in a good spot. This can be pretty risky and generally I stick to Top 6 skaters, but it is a viable strategy in a small field to get different when there are a lot of entries.
