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Which offenses are trending down heading into the 2024 fantasy football season? Andrew Ball looks at three offenses that may fail to live up to expectations in 2024.
Drafting players on the best offenses in the NFL is a sound fantasy football strategy. But that's a luxury that not every fantasy manager can afford.
The best offenses also aren't the same year over year. New coaches come to town, a different quarterback is under center, or skill position players switch teams.
Below, we look at three offenses trending down for fantasy football while also highlighting players to target.
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Buffalo Bills
Two things can be true: The Bills offense is trending down but fantasy managers shouldn't shy away from the top-tier talent. Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid will be among the top options selected for their respective positions. Running back James Cook won't be too far behind. The rest of the roster, a.k.a. the wide receivers, are question marks.
Stefon Diggs (trade) and Gabe Davis (free agency) were let go during the offseason. That pair has been the leaders of the Buffalo receiving game for the better part of the last two seasons. Diggs, in particular, has been named to the Pro Bowl every season he's played in Buffalo. Curtis Samuel and early second-round pick Keon Coleman join slot receiver Khalil Shakir in the starting lineup.
TRADE: Bills trading WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans in exchange for a 2025 2nd-round pick. (via @rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/Gtg7jOKeNW
— NFL (@NFL) April 3, 2024
Fantasy football prospects for Samuel are encouraging. He posted his career-best marks in receiving (851) and rushing (200) yards under offensive coordinator Joe Brady when the pair was together in Carolina. Coleman, however, struggled with separation in college and may need time adjusting to the NFL game, something the Buffalo offense can't afford.
Brady hasn't truly succeeded as an offensive coordinator in the NFL. If his schemes are solved quickly by opposing defenses, things could go south for Allen and Co.
Minnesota Vikings
Anytime a proven veteran quarterback is replaced by a rookie (or a longtime backup), the offensive outlook isn't as rosy. Even if that team rosters the best wide receiver in football.
These 2023 Justin Jefferson catches are nothing short of spectacular 🔥@JJettas | @Vikings pic.twitter.com/GfYwCJ4QIG
— NFL (@NFL) June 3, 2024
With J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold under center, Justin Jefferson isn't repeating as a consensus top-2 pick in fantasy football. Don't fade him too much. He's still quarterback-proof and should be selected in the first round.
Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson aren't being viewed in the same light. Hockenson is expected to miss the beginning of the season and he continues to rehab his surgically repaired knee. Aaron Jones is an upgrade over Alexander Mattison on paper, but he struggles with availability due to injuries and turns 30 years old during the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert lost all of his top weapons from a year ago. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett are no longer on the roster. The new crop of skill position players includes holdover Joshua Palmer, former first-round bust Quentin Johnston, journeyman D.J. Chark, and second-round rookie Ladd McConkey at wide receiver. Former Ravens running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins will tag team the backfield. Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst join red zone threat Donald Parham Jr. in the tight end room.
herbo 🎯 ladd pic.twitter.com/dX141l9BBt
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) May 20, 2024
While that's essentially a downgrade across the board, the one big staple is the franchise quarterback. Because of the lack of talent surrounding him and the offensive philosophy of his new coaches, he's negatively viewed by the fantasy community. Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have historically relied on an elite offensive line and strong rushing attack to move the football. Edwards should be the lead runner, but Dobbins will eat into his workload if he's healthy. Rookie Kimani Vidal could also get involved, creating a potentially messy backfield division.
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