Third Base Dynasty and Prospect Rankings, Buys and Sells for Fantasy Baseball

Eric Cross provides his fantasy baseball prospect and dynasty rankings for the third base position and discusses players to buy or sell entering the second half of 2024.

After covering the catcher, first base, and second base positions so far, I'll be diving into the hot corner today, which feels appropriate with the temperature heating up across the country.

The third base position has been on the rise for a few years now, and that continues to be the case this season. While we've seen a few veterans take a step back offensively, we've also had several younger players take a step forward. That doesn't even factor in a notable duo of top prospects who are still awaiting their turn to contribute at the major league level.

Below, you'll find my top-25 dynasty third base rankings, top-20 third base prospect rankings, and tiers for each of those rankings, along with four third basemen to either buy or sell in dynasty leagues right now. All other positions can be found here.

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Third Base Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Tier 1: Rafael Devers, Jose Ramirez, Royce Lewis, Austin Riley
Tier 2: Coby Mayo, Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg
Tier 3: Noelvi Marte, Manny Machado, Spencer Steer, Alex Bregman
Tier 4: Josh Jung, Alec Bohm, Isaac Paredes, Matt Shaw, Joey Ortiz, Christopher Morel, Ha-Seong Kim
Tier 5: Jose Miranda, Maikel Garcia, Ryan McMahon, Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, Mark Vientos, Luis Rengifo

Third Base Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

Tier 1: Coby Mayo, Junior Caminero
Tier 2: Matt Shaw
Tier 3: Brock Wilken, Jace Jung, Deyvison De Los Santos, Brayden Taylor, Tyler Black, Brady House
Tier 4: Graham Pauley, Shay Whitcomb, Ricardo Cabrera
Tier 5: Mac Horvath, Sal Stewart, Zach Dezenzo, Thomas Saggese, Cam Collier
Tier 6: George Wolkow, Charles McAdoo, Addison Barger, and others.

Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys/Sells

MLB Buy: Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds

If there was any silver lining to Noelvi Marte's 80-game suspension, it was the fact that it kept his price tag in dynasty leagues in check for another half-season. Marte is one of those top prospects that had good minor league numbers but never really had that one massive offensive season like Junior Caminero had last year or Coby Mayo had last year and this year so far. However, all the tools are there for Marte to be an elite fantasy third baseman and join that top tier as early as this season.

Noelvi Marte sizzles his first homer of 2024 out at 111.5 mph for the @Reds 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XSoGywo1UJ

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 3, 2024

Yes, Marte is off to a .150/.171/.250 start through his first 41 plate appearances since returning from suspension, but I'm not overly surprised by that given his spring training was abruptly halted due to the suspension, which cost him three months of action. I'm 100% a believer in the skills and have been/will be trying to get as many Marte shares as I can before his price tag inevitably begins to rise in dynasty leagues.

In the minors and during his time with Cincinnati last season, Marte displayed above-average contact skills, plus power and speed, and a solid approach at the plate. In 123 plate appearances with Cincinnati last season, Marte recorded a 91.3 mph AVG EV, 46.1% hard-hit rate, 83% zone contact rate, and an 85th percentile sprint speed while only striking out 20.3% of the time. Add in his hitter-friendly home ballpark, and all the ingredients are in place for Marte to blossom into a fantasy stud.

MLB Sell: Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

What the heck has happened to Nolan Arenado this season? While his .270  AVG and .322 OBP are slightly higher than last season, Arenado's power has gone into hiding this season. Did his power witness a crime and need to enter the Witness Protection Program? Arenado is currently on a streak of eight full seasons with more than 25 home runs, but that will come to an end this season unless he turns into prime Albert Pujols as Arenado currently has mustered only seven home runs with the halfway mark of the 2024 season in the rearview mirror.

After posting a 7.3% barrel rate, 88.8 mph AVG EV, and 38.1% hard-hit rate in 2023, those metrics have plummeted to 3%, 84.8 mph, and 27.9%, respectively. All three rank in the bottom-8% of hitters this season and Arenado also ranks in the bottom-25% in the new bat speed metric. At least his contact and approach metrics are still in line with previous seasons, which have kept his AVG and OBP respectable, but the power outage is a major blow to Arenado's value.

Given the power drop-off we've seen this season, it leads me to wonder if this is due to an underlying injury that we don't know about or simply skill erosion. Neither one is ideal. At this point, you'd be selling for 90 cents on the dollar, but Arenado's name still carries some value.

Prospect Buy: Mac Horvath, Baltimore Orioles

As a University of North Carolina fan, having Mac Horvath land in the Baltimore Orioles farm system during last year's draft was more than ideal as the Orioles have been arguably the best player development organization in baseball for the last half-decade (or longer). In Horvath's final two seasons at North Carolina, he combined for 42 home runs and 44 steals in 123 games and added five home runs, 14 steals, and a .321/.455/.603 slash line in 22 minor league games after the draft.

BIG MAC 🔥

Mac Horvath adds an insurance run with a 2-out homer in the 7th

IronBirds lead 5-2@MacHorvath | @OsPlayerDev | 🎙️ @MIKEdUpSports pic.twitter.com/Bb063ov8VW

— Aberdeen IronBirds (@IronBirds) June 30, 2024

The 2024 season didn't start off as well for Horvath. After finishing off May in a 1-for-15 slide, Horvath was slashing just .199/.306/.338 in 160 plate appearances with three home runs and 13 steals. But since the beginning of June, Horvath has slashed .272/.343/.522 with nine doubles, four home runs, and eight steals in 23 games.

There are still some contact issues in the profile and Horvath is probably capped in the .260 range, but his above-average to plus power/speed blend makes him highly intriguing for fantasy purposes regardless of what position he ends up at. Just don't ask me what position that will be or if it will be with Baltimore as it's nearly impossible to answer both of those questions given the immense offensive depth Baltimore has.

Prospect Buy No. 2/Buyers Beware: George Wolkow, Chicago White Sox 

There wasn't an obvious prospect to sell at this position, so instead of forcing a square peg into a round hole, I'll go with a second buy and discuss George Wolkow of the Chicago White Sox. Wolkow actually feels like both a buy and a sell given his skill set, hence why I added "buyers beware" at the top as this is truly a buy at your own risk situation.

In 43 games between the Complex Level and Low-A Carolina League, Wolkow is slashing .298/.397/.579 with 21 extra-base hits, 10 home runs, and a 12% walk rate. That all seems great, but Wolkow has also struck out in a whopping 41.7% of his plate appearances so far this season. Ouch. That strikeout rate is coming down, however. In Wolkow's first 30 games, he struck out 47.3% of the time but has dropped that rate to 30.9% over his last 13 games.

There's still plenty of work to be done in this area and the contact/strikeout combination will be the major X factor for Wolkow moving forward. But if he can keep the strikeout rate in check and sniff average contact rates, his massive raw power from his 6-foot-7/240-pound frame could make him one of the top power bats in the game.

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