RADIO
It's All-Star time, sadly. I say that because there is precious little baseball to watch this week. This presents the opportunity for reflection, so we will once again look back on the first half leaderboard for Statcast.
This time, we will review the top players in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrels. As with last week's analysis of expected stats leaders, I will focus on the surprising players who appear in order to gauge their fantasy value going forward.
All Statcast metrics are current as of July 11, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com
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Average Exit Velocity
First, a look at the overall exit velocity leaders. There are few surprises at the top.
In last week's expected stats midyear review, I reviewed Evan Longoria and Patrick Wisdom so that leaves Darin Ruf.
Ruf had a strong May before succumbing to injury and missing almost a month of action. He's back and heating up again with three HR and seven RBI in the week leading up to the All-Star break. He's powered up equally against lefties and righties, but it should be noted he's batting .327 against left-handers and .219 against right-handers. While exit velocity alone isn't always telling of power production, he's coupling it with a 41.6% SweetSpot%. That has made for a 16.7% Brls/BBE rate that is tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Not too shabby.
The reason Ruf is hard to count on in fantasy is lack of consistent playing time. The Giants rotate players at nearly every position and Ruf is going to split time between 1B and OF with guys like LaMonte Wade Jr., Steven Duggar, and Alex Dickerson. He's a strong DFS play when in the lineup against LHP, but best left alone in 12-team or shallower leagues.
We've discussed this earlier in the season but a better indicator of power is exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. Again, you'll see Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and the like on here. However, we also see some intriguing names.
Bobby Bradley was highlighted in last week's article on xSLG leaders. Here he is again in the top-10 for FB/LD exit velocity. You'd think he would be more than 13% rostered across Yahoo leagues. The Cleveland offense is mostly a punchline these days after getting no-hit again, but Bradley is one of the exceptions.
One of these things is not like the other... Chad Pinder sticks out like a sore thumb on this list, as does Wisdom, although he did post a 92.3 MPH average exit velocity in 2020. However, he only homered twice last year and has all of three homers in 134 at-bats this year. He is rocking fly balls and line drives, but when you have a 54.7% ground ball rate then it's not quite as meaningful. There's not much to see here so let's move on.
Barrels
Bobby Dalbec is getting a shot to stick in the potent Red Sox lineup every day but it's in the eighth or ninth spot. He's been quiet as of late, not going deep yet in July. He does have a top-15 barrel rate and boasts a .474 xwoBACON, so there could be better days to come if his contact rate improves. That's a big if, though. His 68.1% Zone Contact% is 14 points lower than league average and his Chase Contact% is farther off with a 17-point gap. He's a pure slugger right now and one that could binge homers if he locks in but could also pile up 0-fers on a regular basis. Be prepared to stream if he figures things out but he's just a bench stash for now.
One look at Mike Zunino's Statcast sliders says it all:
He's an elite defensive catcher with extraordinary pull-side power and a big hole in his swing. Only one of his 37 base hits this season has gone to the opposite field and 16 of his 19 home runs cleared the left-field fence, with the other three in left-center. It's tough to swallow a .198 average, but few catchers will reach 30 HR this year like he could.
Hard Hit Rate
I'd like to direct your attention to the bottom of this list where Max Stassi and Josh Bell have joined the company of players like Rafael Devers, Nelson Cruz, and Ronald Acuna Jr. ?
In his age-30 season, Max Stassi is finally developing an offensive game. He entered the season as a defense-first backstop and career .231 batting average in a supposed timeshare with Kurt Suzuki. Instead, Stassi is slashing .296/.377/.496 and has an impressive 54.5% HardHit% to go with his above-average framing rate in the 74th percentile. Meanwhile, Suzuki is batting .219 with a 29.2% HardHit% and inferior framing rate in the 3rd percentile. Stassi will keep Suzuki on the bench most nights and is proving to be a solid option in two-catcher leagues.
By Statcast accounts, Josh Bell is back. He's posting numbers fairly close to his breakout 2019 in terms of exit velocity and expected slash line. His 54% HardHit% is far higher than two years ago, in fact.
While he's only gone deep once in July, his batting average has gone up each successive month of the 2021 season and he's underperforming his xBA by a full 35 points. A strong 25.1% line drive rate promises for continued success in that regard, which would be a relief after last year's .226 batting average. Bell is not what he showed last year, although he may not reach the heights of 2019 either.
Just outside the top-20 among hitters with at least 50 batted-ball events and out of view of this leaderboard lies Garrett Cooper. He should be of interest to fantasy managers throughout the second half. His 52.5% HardHit% ranks in the top seven percentile and his .474 xwoBACON is similarly high. With Corey Dickerson traded and Starling Marte potentially on the move, Cooper should see regular time in right field and has been holding down the third spot in the lineup.
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