MLB Hitter Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for xwOBA (Week 17)

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For this week's iteration of advanced metrics leaders, we're going to forego BaseballSavant and head straight to the best source for data - our own Jon Anderson (@JonPGH).

Among many other things, he has created an MLB Tableau full of Statcast data that is available to the public. It's easy to filter and sort to find whatever you need. In this case, I decided to find the xwOBA leaders for July and compare it to June in order to find the biggest risers and fallers. Data is fun, at least when it pertains to baseball.

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Expected wOBA Risers

J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

+.151 xwOBA

It looked like Realmuto's time as an elite catcher for fantasy was coming to an end, other than the fact he steals bases. A week before the All-Star break, his batting average was at .239 and he had seven HR with 35 RBI. Relative to the catcher position, that was perfectly fine but it's not what we'd expected from Realmuto. He's been on an absolute tear since that time.

It doesn't hurt that he's coming off a series with Pittsburgh but his hot streak started well before then. Whatever the reason, Realmuto is racking up hits and Alec Bohm getting on base ahead of him is a recipe for continued RBI opps.

Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals

+.087 xwOBA

Gorman really didn't hit better in July (.211) than in June (.207) but he did one thing significantly better - get on base. He had walked just eight times across his first 128 plate appearances and then upped that to 11 BB in 82 PA this past month. That's definitely a positive development for a young slugger although it'd be nice to see him cut down on the 35% Whiff rate.

Gorman has solid power and room to grow as a hitter but he may not get the chance to take that next step this season. He's only taken 18 PA against left-handed pitchers, mainly to give Albert Pujols a chance to hit. Gorman has done well when facing lefties, hitting .267 with a 3-5 BB-K rate in those appearances so maybe he'll earn a chance to be an everyday player next season.

Cal Mitchell, Pittsburgh Pirates

+.072 xwOBA

I'll admit Mitchell isn't the most enticing option in fantasy. That might explain his 0% rostered rate in Yahoo. Mitchell will get a chance to hold down a lineup spot for the Bucs the remainder of this season, however, and he has been modestly productive.

In 31 at-bats since the break, Mitchell is batting .290 with two HR, five RBI, and five runs. Despite the increase in OBP, Mitchell is barely walking and is far less appealing in points leagues. He is at least worth monitoring in deep leagues and NL-only formats.

Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers

+.057 xwOBA

It isn't the massive leap forward that we hoped for but Lux has definitely improved this season. He's hitting .299 and has improved his plate discipline in all respects.

	K%	BB%	xwOBA
2019	29.3	8.5	.343
2020	27.5	8.7	.266
2021	21.8	10.8	.323
2022	17	11.3	.334

Lux saw a jump in xwOBA based on a still-improving walk rate from June to July. He actually hit well in both months, batting .341 in June and .320 in July. If only the power would follow... Lux has just four homers on the year and his low exit velocity doesn't show promise for more. Play him for average and run-scoring potential and prefer him in points leagues.

Expected wOBA Fallers

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

-.181 xwOBA

While Realmuto is lighting up the box score, Schwarber is devolving back to a three-true-outcome hitter. The homers are still coming (10 in July) but he slashed .168/.206/.475 over the past month with a 5-37 BB-K rate. Schwarber striking out is nothing new. He's quickly becoming a batting average sink, however, and as the leadoff hitter he's hurting his own run-scoring production by failing to get on base.

As a streaky hitter, it's hard to give up on Schwarber altogether. I'd recommend evaluating your team's placement in the standings to see if you need the HR production in lieu of AVG. If not, try swapping him for a player that fits your roster better.

Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles

-.136 xwOBA

We've highlighted Mountcastle many times this season as an underachiever compared to his expected stats. He's proving that to be totally wrong. Things aren't going so great lately as he's 3-for-34 since the second half began. It's been a struggle through most of July for him. Mountcastle went deep once all month and posted a .195/.242/.299 slash line.

He and the Orioles were surging before the break but they're playing .500 ball since then at 5-5. At the very least, it seems as if they won't be huge sellers before the deadline. With Trey Mancini on the move, that hurts the offense overall but it should allow Mountcastle to move up from the No. 5 lineup spot. That is, assuming he just actually starts to get some base hits.

Tommy Pham, Boston Red Sox

-.096 xwOBA

The Reds were one team that absolutely needed to become sellers before the trade deadline and they've done that by finally dealing Luis Castillo and quietly shipping off Tyler Naquin. That movement continued with Tommy Pham as he finds himself on a Boston team desperately in need of help on offense with several key players injured and others struggling. It could also serve to kickstart Pham, who has either been distracted by trade talks or the fact he was on a sinking ship in Cincinnati.

Across 106 PA in the month of July, Pham slashed .204/.255/.245 and didn't go deep once. Even his baserunning was affected as he stole one base but was caught twice. Now that he has officially been traded, he is a high-interest pickup in fantasy who is still available in half of Yahoo leagues. This trade is just what Pham needed to reset his season and the timing is ideal with fantasy football season about to get underway, as Pham's focus might start to dwindle even more.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

-.079 xwOBA

He's not one of the biggest fallers but I think it's worth pointing out that Ohtani hit just .224 in July. That's because he is stuck on an Angels squad that is once again massively underachieving. Despite their talent, the Angels are 25th in runs scored on the season and dead last over the past 30 days. Losing Anthony Rendon early in the season hurt but this team without Mike Trout is now a shell of itself. No offense intended but a lineup with Magneuris Sierra leading off, Luis Rengifo batting third, and Max Stassi hitting fifth is not going to make any pitching staff scared.

If Ohtani sees any dip in efficiency, the utter lack of lineup support can take a bite out of his counting stats. Not to mention, since the team fired Joe Maddon, Ohtani has only four steals and has been caught four times. He definitely won't reach the 26-steal mark from last year. I'm not saying to sell on Ohtani, I'm just setting the bar a bit lower for his expectations.

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