Hitter Advanced Metrics Leaders - Hard Hit% for Week 14

July 11, 2022

Statcast batter leaders and fallers in Week 14 of the 2022 MLB season according to hard hit rate. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

The last time we examined hard-hit rate leaders was back in Week 3. A lot has changed since then, needless to say.

Although diving into metrics like Barrel rate and exit velocity on fly balls & line drives provides similar insight, these all must be evaluated on their own accord and put into context. As you'll see below, the hard-hit leaderboard contains many of the usual suspects you would expect but also some players who haven't performed at a high level despite their ability to hit the ball hard regularly.

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Hard Hit Rate Leaders

Data taken from BaseballSavant is current as of 7/11/2022

Notable Players

J.D. Davis keeps showing up on the Statcast charts, which is more frustrating than anything. He is in a strict platoon with Dominic Smith and will not see time unless it's at DH. At one point, I talked myself into believing he could hit his way into more at-bats throughout the season but it doesn't look like it's happening.

Franmil Reyes has never had a problem hitting the ball hard. He's got a career 49.5% Hard Hit% whereas the MLB average is 35.7%. Anyone who rosters him is fully aware of how bad he was at the start of 2022, batting .135 in April before mercifully hitting the injured list. Since returning, he's been in beast mode. His current 56% Hard Hit% is a career-high and he also ranks 16th in Barrel rate.

Franmil Reyes gives himself a belated birthday gift with another oppo taco!#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/eqD95lnaGo

— Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) July 9, 2022

The homers are starting to come finally with four since July began. Reyes should be a staple in fantasy lineups from here on out.

Joc Pederson has been topping the charts since opening week of the 2022 season, so it makes sense he is among the leaders. I'm curious if he can sustain his success in San Fran throughout the second half since he's already slowing down. A look at the rolling windows shows him as one of the biggest fallers in xSLG over the past 100 plate appearances with a drop of .203 points. His hard-hit% has taken a noticeable dip as of late since he hasn't gotten a base hit since before the 4th of July and hasn't homered since June 25th.

This could just be a dry spell for Pederson or fatigue as we head to the All-Star break. If he comes out of the gate slowly, then it might be time to consider shipping him off to another team looking for a stud.

It's good to see Matt Chapman isn't too far from his previous level of performance, even if the results aren't as good as hoped. In theory, moving from Oakland to Toronto should have been a huge boost for him based on park factor and team context. It hasn't turned out that way. He is on pace to match last year's 27 HR, 72 RBI pace with a similarly low average (.219 this season). That's not a jump in performance, however, and it's far off his elite 2019 season. He rightfully should see improvement in that average based on a .253 xBA and the fact his strikeout rate has dropped eight points from last season. For the most part, you know what you're getting with Chapman though. He's a solid slugger who can be a borderline top-10 3B option for fantasy.

Alex Kirilloff is a player I've been banging the drum for since early in the preseason. A wrist injury held him out for much of last season and injuries again limited him in the early portion of this season. Since returning in earnest to the big-league lineup on June 18, he's slashing .286/.307/.500 with three HR, 18 RBI in 70 AB. He is posting a .658 xSLG over the past 50 PA. While it's good to see he isn't striking out at an extreme clip, it would also be nice if he showed the ability to take a walk on occasion. The long balls haven't been coming in droves but Kirilloff has plenty of power and could easily be the type who goes on a binge in the near future.

Speaking of Twins, what is Nick Gordon doing here? The little brother of Dee is supposed to be a speedster not a slugger, especially considering he weighs all of 160 pounds. That's not how it's played out so far. He's posting a 50% Hard Hit% and a .565 xSLG in the upper ranks of the league.

You might think that Hard% is misleading because he scorches the ball on the ground a bunch, but you'd be wrong. He's the owner of a 28.7% FB% which is six points above MLB average. His counting stats aren't overwhelming but they could be better with extended playing time. He's also a big underachiever on average with a .270 AVG compared to a .292 xBA. Gordon could serve as a decent utility player for fantasy leagues.

Nelson Cruz can still mash the ball hard as his exit velocity attests to. In fact, not much has changed in his statline across the board. The only thing that stands out is that his 7.7 degree launch angle needs a lift. He is at a career-high 51% GB% and 1.68 GB/FB. That 31.5% Sweet Spot% will need to improve if he's to get the most out of his hard-hit balls. Seems like an easy fix for a seasoned veteran but it's not a foregone conclusion that it will happen either. Buy low on Cruz if you're desperate for power but don't hold your breath for 20 homers in the second half.

Kyle Isbel is an intriguing name. Now that the Royals have moved on from Carlos Santana and could potentially part ways with Andrew Benintendi before the trade deadline, Isbel could see regular playing time. His launch angle is fairly low and he's more speed than power, so the upside here is that he starts to see more line drives fall for hits and gets the green light on the basepaths. Don't anticipate much power out of Isbel.

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