Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 1

April 7, 2021

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance, or if it was just a flash in the pan.

Major league baseball is back and in full swing for 2021, and with just five days of games there were already tons of interesting starters deserving a closer look. The hardest part about writing this piece was narrowing it down to just three starters. This week, I aimed to analyze pitchers across a larger spectrum to help players in a variety of league sizes, which is why we're looking at a mid-tier starter taking a new approach in Yusei Kikuchi, a young prospect with a killer breaking ball in Tanner Houck, and a deep league afterthought in Tyler Anderson.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 04/05/2021.

Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners

46% Rostered

2020 Stats: 47 IP, 5.17 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 2.35 K/BB ratio
04/02 vs. SF: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Kikuchi started the 2021 season off with a bang, tying his career high for strikeouts with ten while securing the quality start. The start is surprising to many given Kikuchi’s 5.39 career ERA heading into this start, but ERA estimators like FIP and xFIP predicted better days for Kikuchi in 2021 thanks to his improved strikeout rate and ability to keep the ball in the yard. While not on the level of Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish, Kikuchi did generate some hype when he came over from NPB in 2019. Kikuchi had a career 2.77 ERA in NPB with a 1.17 WHIP and 2.43 K/BB ratio, and the combination of a fastball that can touch 98 MPH and devastating slider had scouts and analysts believing Kikuchi’s stuff could play in the majors.

Those scouts and analysts looked dead wrong after Kikuchi’s dreadful 2019 campaign that saw him post a hideous 5.46 ERA and 5.71 FIP. Kikuchi had a homer problem, surrendering 36 longballs in 161.2 innings despite pitching half his games in spacious Safeco Field. He also wasn’t able to produce strikeouts at the same level, putting up a mediocre 6.46 K/9 with an 8.8% SwStr rate. What was the poor guy to do? He had at least three more seasons in the majors, and it was clear his current approach wasn’t going to work. The answer? A new pitch. Kikuchi brought a new weapon with him in 2020, a sweeping 92 MPH cut-fastball.

After Kikuchi’s curveball took a pounding in 2019 (opponents had a .348 AVG and .623 SLG against it) he wisely removed the pitch from his repertoire and replaced it with the aforementioned cutter. The cutter was a revelation for Kikuchi, as batters managed just a .244 AVG and .366 SLG against the pitch in 2020. The pitch sawed off opposing batters, who managed just a 1-degree average launch angle against with a 58.3% groundball rate. The pitch was one of the biggest factors in helping Kikuchi reduce his home run rate, as his overall groundball rate improved by 8% and his HR/9 went from 2.0 in 2019 to just 0.57 in 2020. But that’s enough numbers for now, let’s have a look at this thing in action. Below is a cutter from the 2020 season.

It’s an impressive offering, but what may be even more impressive is that Kikuchi was able to develop that pitch over the course of one (extended) offseason. Kikuchi had a major problem and developed a career-saving pitch in a relatively short amount of time, which speaks volumes to his natural talent and work ethic. He did something that thousands of pitchers couldn’t, and while he didn’t get the surface stat benefits in 2020, his efforts should result in him becoming an effective major league starter and Kikuchi, the Mariners, and fantasy managers should reap the rewards soon.

Now that we know how Kikuchi became a better starter, let’s dive into this 10-strikeout outing to see how Kikuchi made it happen, and if it’s repeatable going forward. Kikuchi was throwing gas in this start, averaging 95 MPH with his fastball and maxing out at 97.4 MPH. Kikuchi is one of just three left-handed starters who averaged 95 MPH or better on his fastball last season, with the other two being high-strikeout pitchers Blake Snell and Jesus Luzardo. The fastball was Kikuchi’s biggest source of whiffs in this start, as he got five of his 11 whiffs with his four-seam fastball. He also had 14 CS+W (called strikes+whiffs), giving him a monster 48% CSW rate. That percentage was beaten out by one pitch, and it’s one we haven’t touched on yet, which is Kikuchi’s slider.

Kikuchi got 10 CS+W on his slider on 20 pitches, making it an incredibly efficient finisher in this start. The slider also went through a bit of a rework after Kikuchi added his cutter, as Kikuchi shaved a few MPH off the pitch and added about two inches of drop. Below is a side-by-side comparison of Kikuchi’s slider from 2019 (top) and in this most recent start (bottom) to help visualize the changes.

The slider is sharper and harder in 2019, and acts as more of a slurve in 2021.  Earlier in this analysis, I said that Kikuchi replaced his curveball with a cutter, but that’s not entirely accurate. The slider actually replaced his curveball as a slower, loopier breaking ball and the cutter replaced his slider as the hard, sweeping secondary pitch. The slider serves a different purpose for Kikuchi now as his true breaking ball. These changes helped up the whiff rate on Kikuchi’s slider from 26% in 2019 to 38.7% in 2020, and batters mustered just a .167 AVG off the slider 2020 compared to a .270 AVG in 2019. This slider rounds out the repertoire and gives Kikuchi three effective pitches. He does have a show-me changeup he’s used about 7% of the time in the majors, but that’s mainly for opposite-handed batters.

Speaking of opposite-handed batters, taking on righties has been one of Kikuchi’s biggest challenges in the majors. Right-handed batters are hitting .290 with a .519 SLG and .362 wOBA against Kikuchi for his career, and Kikuchi served up two home runs to righties Buster Posey and Evan Longoria in this start. Platoon splits are natural, but these numbers are at a troublesome level. He did fare much better in 2020 with just a .228 AVG, .390 SLG, and .299 wOBA against, which gave him even platoon splits that season. Hopefully, the revamped arsenal can help Kikuchi handle righties, but allowing two home runs to strong right-handed batters in his first start is a concern for Kikuchi.

Verdict:

Kikuchi fell flat on his face in his 2019 rookie campaign, but returned with a reworked repertoire that helped him limit power and generate more strikeouts, which are perhaps the two most important skills for a pitcher in today’s game. He didn’t quite get the results on a surface level, posting an ugly 5.17 ERA, but that number was inflated by an aberrant 59.9% LOB rate and a .306 BABIP against. If Kikuchi keeps this up, he could post an era in the 3.75-4.25 range and roughly an 8.5-9 K/9. He’s not going to breakout as a superstar, but those are valuable numbers and a pitcher who can do that deserves to be rostered in all but the shallowest of leagues.

Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox

31% Rostered

2020 Stats: 17 IP, 0.53 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 2.33 K/BB ratio

04/03 vs. BAL: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 8 K

Houck provided a glimmer of hope for Boston in three starts last season, allowing just one earned run to cross the plate in his abbreviated major league debut. Houck entered the 2021 season as Boston’s second ranked pitching prospect and seventh overall prospect per MLB pipeline, and earned a spot in the rotation due to Eduardo Rodriguez’s injury. Rodriguez should return within a week or two, but given Boston’s limited pitching depth, Houck certainly has the opportunity to keep his spot if he pitches well. Garrett Richards just got shelled by these same Orioles after a miserable spring training, and fringe veterans Nick Pivetta and Martin Perez don’t have the clout or track record to block Houck. The only thing preventing Houck from being a full-time starter is his performance. But can he pitch well enough to earn his keep?

When it comes to repertoire, Houck’s is pretty limited. 98% of the time he is going to throw either a fastball or slider. He does throw both a four-seamer and two-seamer at about a 60/40 split between his fastballs, but Houck lacks the second offspeed pitch that would round out his arsenal. Houck has thrown 11 splitters at the major league level, including three in this start against Baltimore, but it’s an afterthought at this point.

If you’re only going to throw two pitches, a fastball and slider is probably the best one-two punch a starter can have. Several starters have managed to thrive with this combo, with notable examples being Dinelson Lamet, Patrick Corbin, and peak Chris Archer. That being said, it’s an inherently limited position to try and survive as a starter and comes with flaws, usually in terms of excessive home runs, poor control, and greater chance for chronic arm injury due to the high percentage of breaking balls thrown. The three most notable examples provided earlier have all struggled with injuries, walks, and/or long balls at points in their career. All of those pitchers also have elite sliders, which is necessary when a pitcher is working with such a limited repertoire.

So, how good is Houck’s slider, exactly? Well, no major league batter has managed to get a hit against the pitch thus far. In fact, Tanner Houck’s slider has only been put in play six times on 126 pitches. That’s pretty darn incredible, and the pitch is a beauty in action. Here’s one of his best from last Saturday’s outing.

That pitch is so filthy Larry Flynt would've fought to publish it in a magazine. Last season Houck’s slider was in the 92^nd percentile of horizontal slider movement (min. 50 sliders thrown), and with its sharp, sweeping break Houck should be able to generate above average whiffs with the offering. The pitch can especially tie up right-handed batters, something important in a division home to some big right-handed power hitters. Houck isn’t afraid to use the pitch against lefties either, and the pitch can be quite effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Although it’s a small sample, Houck’s slider looks like a legit strikeout weapon at the big league level.

The slider is for real, but the rest of Houck’s profile needs some work. He did improve his fastball velocity to 94.1 MPH in this start, which is an encouraging sign, especially since Houck flashed improved velocity during spring training. Higher velocity not only helps his fastball get more whiffs, but helps keep hitters off balance and fall victim to his slider more often. A hard fastball will help him succeed, but let’s think back to our notable examples of fastball-slider pitchers and see if Houck has already suffered from any of those flaws.

For a pitcher, Houck has been relatively healthy, avoiding chronic arm issues and the big TJ to this point. He was surprisingly good at limiting the longball as a prospect as well, allowing just 0.7 HR/9 over 249 minor league innings. Houck’s ability to generate infield flyballs and hover around a 45-50% groundball rate certainly helped. The ugliest wart to his game is control, as Houck allowed 4.1 BB/9 as a minor leaguer, and allowed nine walks across three starts in his debut last season. A bloated walk rate would not only lead to extra baserunners, inflating Houck’s WHIP, it would also mean inefficiency for Houck. Houck is already a strikeout pitcher, but if he’s missing spots and running three-ball counts often, he’ll have a hard time managing his pitch count and won’t make it deep into games. He was being used as a reliever in Triple-A in 2019, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was used out of the bullpen for Boston for a bit before regaining a spot in the rotation. Houck would make an effective multi-inning reliever, but Boston should still try and make it work as a starter for him.

Verdict:

Houck possesses a downright nasty slider and should be able to maintain an above-average strikeout rate. His limited repertoire may expose him over long outings and as he makes more major league appearances. Control issues will likely keep his WHIP above the 1.30 mark, and inefficiency could cap his ability to pitch deep into games. Houck doesn’t have a guaranteed spot in the rotation yet, but between the oft-injured Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Richards getting pounded by Baltimore after a rough spring, the enigmatic Nick Pivetta, and the epitome of replacement level Martin Perez, a spot will certainly open up at some point soon. Boston has one of the thinnest pitching staffs in the bigs, and it’s hard to imagine them turning away an effective arm. Houck is worth an add or a stash in deeper leagues, and would be really interesting if we knew he was going to start. Breaking balls like this slider don’t grow on trees, and Houck is someone worth taking a shot on.

Tyler Anderson, Pittsburgh Pirates

1% Rostered

2020 Stats: 59.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.64 K/BB ratio

04/03 @ CHC: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Out of all the interesting performances of the first few days, one player I did not expect to be writing about was Pirates ace (?) Tyler Anderson. In fact, over the course of his six MLB seasons, Anderson has never been on the radar as an interesting or exciting fantasy option. A soft-tossing, low dominance lefty already has limited upside, but throw in the fact that he spent four seasons in Colorado, and Anderson was off-limits in all but the deepest of leagues. Anderson sought solace in the friendly confines of San Francisco’s Oracle Park, but responded with a career-worst 5.93 xFIP and 5.69 SIERA, the highest and second-highest marks in the majors last year respectively (min. 50 IP). Following 2020, Anderson found himself at the last stop for 30-something players looking to hang on for one more chance in the bigs, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

What did Anderson do to earn our attention after just one start as a Bucco? Rack up a whopping 22 whiffs against the Cubs, that’s what. This was the best swinging strike game of Anderson’s career, and the only other pitcher to achieve this feat in 2021 heading into Monday night was a fellow by the name of Shane Bieber. The outcome was less than ideal, with three runs allowed over five innings, but this start still deserves a closer look. If there’s something here with Anderson fantasy managers can add him on the cheap, likely for the minimum FAB bid allowed by the league. He’s also available in 99% of Yahoo leagues, so unless you’re in a league with Mama Anderson, chances are he’s available. But do we dare?

Anderson generated the majority of his whiffs with a combination of his four-seam fastball and cutter, notching 17 of 22 between the pair. The cutter was Anderson’s feature pitch in this outing, as he used it 33% of the time. Anderson has gone through periods of his career where he’s featured the cutter more prominently, most notably in 2018, his only season with a full starter’s workload. Anderson’s whiff rate on his fastball was even more impressive, as he got nine whiffs on 16 swings for a 58% whiff rate. He rounded it out with four whiffs on his changeup and one on five sinkers thrown, but it was all about that fastball-cutter combo for Anderson in this one.

I wish I could tell you Anderson improved his fastball velocity, or made significant movement gains on his cutter, or changed up his pitch location, but fantasy baseball is no fairy tale world. Anderson average an uninspiring 89.9 MPH with his heater and just 83.5 MPH with his cutter, both career lows. It was 62 degrees in Chicago at first pitch, so Anderson can’t blame weather on poor velo readings here, though he could still be working up to his normal 90-91 MPH velocity. It’s possible that Anderson caught the Cubs on a bad day, or that they’re just going to be a high swing-and-miss offense. The Cubs did have the fourth-highest strikeout rate last season, and added low-contact hitters Joc Pederson and Jake Marisnick to the lineup, a pair that combined for eight whiffs in this game. For a point in his favor, Anderson did average about 100 RPM above his typical career spin rate on both his fastball and cutter in this one, so perhaps he sprinkled some of Trevor Bauer’s secret sauce on the ball before delivering it, but we’ve got to see him do this over 3-4 starts before trusting him.

Verdict:

Prior to this start Anderson had shown us 455.2 innings of mediocrity, and five good innings against a high-strikeout lineup isn’t enough to move the needle yet. Part of the problem with a volatile, low-end pitcher like Anderson is that the benefits of using him rarely outweigh the downsides. With a career 21.1% strikeout rate you can’t expect big K numbers on a regular basis, and pitching for Pittsburgh means he’ll rarely be in line for a win. So then, you’re hoping he can just keep runs off the board for 5-6 innings and limit baserunners, two things that have been iffy for him as a big leaguer.

The best thing Anderson can do (most weeks) is not hurt you, and that’s not enough for anything but deep NL-only leagues. Now, if he can sustain this whiff rate and spin rate gains over multiple starts then he becomes more interesting, but for now, he’s not worth the stash.

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