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Fantasy football draft recap for RotoBaller's standard mock. Matt Terelle analyzes rounds 7-10 of a 12-team expert mock draft for 2017 fantasy football leagues.
We continue our look at RotoBaller's Standard Mock 2.0 with a recap of rounds 7-10. We recently gathered 12 RotoBaller experts writers to conduct a week-long, email draft, MFL10-style, in order to evaluate ADP values and draft strategies in standard scoring fantasy football leagues.
If you didn't catch it earlier, start here with our first round analysis. We're breaking down every round, continuing with the seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth rounds in this article.
Note: All references to ADP come from www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com and are based off a 12-team, standard league.
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Round 7 Recap
The seventh round kicked off with Mark Ingram going to Nathan Powell's team. Ingram was a nice get in the seventh round. He has been coming off the board in the fifth according to recent ADP data. As the most well-rounded Saints running back he should have a solid fantasy season. As long and he and Cam Newton are healthy, Kelvin Benjamin has double-digit touchdown upside. Derrick Henry is one of the most highly-valued backup running backs this season. If something happens to DeMarco Murray this year, Henry could be a top-five RB. Jay Cutler just called DeVante Parker "a faster Alshon Jeffrey." If that's the case Parker is a steal in the seventh.
Emmanuel Sanders and Eric Decker are two veteran receivers who both come in as solid values. I'll take Adrian Peterson in the seventh any day. He is going to be living in the red zone playing for an explosive Saints offense. If everything breaks right he is a shoo-in for double-digit touchdowns. Bilal Powell is expected to split the workload 50/50 with Matt Forte. What a fall for Randall Cobb. After being drafted as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 over the past few seasons, Dennis Clausen got him at the end of the seventh. If Cobb is able to wrestle some targets away from Davante Adams and stay healthy, this will be a solid pick.
Best Pick: Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - Ingram is coming off draft boards in the fourth round of fantasy drafts and is playing for one of the best offenses in the league. He is part of a committee and will have to share touches but the situation was the same last year when he posted a top-12 fantasy season.
Round 8 Recap
It was a diverse round as we saw two quarterbacks, four running backs, five wide receivers, and one tight end come off the board. Corey Coleman has loads of talent but he has struggled to stay healthy and may be catching passes from Brock Osweiler. For the value, Kyle Rudolph is one of my favorite tight ends this season. He turned in a career year in 2016 and will be running short and intermediate routes for super-accurate Sam Bradford. It came down to Jeremy Maclin or Pierre Garcon for my pick. I went with Garcon because he should command a larger target share this season and Brian Hoyer has a history of feeding his WR1.
Rob Kelley isn't dead yet as he appears slated to open the year as the starter. A couple good games and he may be able to keep Samaje Perine on the bench. Perine struggled in pass protection and fumbled in the preseason opener. He's going to need to pick it up in a hurry to have an early-season fantasy impact. Tyrell Williams is extremely undervalued, especially with Mike Williams unlikely to play this year. Cameron Meredith should operate as the Bears' No. 1 receiver. Even in a dismal offense, that distinction holds value. Terrance West will be the Ravens' early down grinder while ceding passing game work to Danny Woodhead. DeSean Jackson's real-life impact may outweigh his fantasy impact but he surely has a few huge weeks in him in 2017. Cam Newton has finishing as the top overall fantasy quarterback in his range of outcomes.
Best Pick: Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) - Rudolph is a great value at tight end. He finished as the TE2 in fantasy last season. Granted, that was aided by injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed, but both of those players have struggled with injuries over their careers. Instead of using a premium selection on Gronk or Reed, Rudolph in the eighth allows you to draft an elite WR or RB in the early rounds and still get a tight end with top-five upside. Rudolph is the team's top red zone target and will catch passes from Sam Bradford, who set a league record for completion percentage in 2016.
Biggest Reach: Samaje Perine (RB, WAS) - Perine is a bit of a reach in the ninth round, even though that's where his ADP has been. The Redskins already have a pass-catching back in Chris Thompson, leaving Perine and Kelley to fight over the early down work. Not exactly a valuable role in fantasy, especially for a pass-first team such as Washington has been. Of course, I'm typically pretty bearish on selecting rookies in redraft formats.
Round 9 Recap
Round 9 saw a few more teams add their starting quarterbacks while we also saw our first kicker come off the board. Zach Ertz could benefit the most from the Jordan Matthews trade. Matthews being gone opens up a lot of middle of the field targets for the tight end. Kareem Hunt is still playing behind Spencer Ware but could have a huge year if he's able to wrestle the starting job away from the veteran. Perhaps as a result of the sickle-cell trait that cropped up last year, John Brown is still dealing with soft tissue injuries in his legs and is a risk/reward pick in the ninth round. Delanie Walker should have one last TE1 season left in his legs before giving way to Jonnu Smith in 2018. Jeremy Maclin is criminally undervalued in drafts. He is a lock to see the most targets in a pass-first Baltimore offense. I was hoping he would slide to me at the end of the round.
Kirk Cousins has been one of my favorite late-round quarterbacks to target over the past few years. With a little positive touchdown regression he could finish as a top-six quarterback in 2017. Marvin Jones isn't as good as he was in the beginning of last season but he's not as bad as he finished in 2016, either. He's fine as a third or fourth wide receiver. I reached a bit on Adam Thielen but I'm high on him and think he builds upon his breakout of a year ago. Chris Zolli got a solid value in Theo Riddick, who has seen his ADP drop three full rounds in from PPR to standard leagues. Even though this is not a PPR league, Riddick should be able to roll up receiving yardage sprinkling in the occasional carry. Justin Tucker is the best kicker in fantasy, especially in leagues where you get rewarded for field goals of 50 or more yards. He led the NFL with 10 kicks of 50+ yards in 2016.
Best Pick: Jeremy Maclin (WR, BAL) - Maclin struggled through an injury-filled 2016 season but he is just a year removed from being a rock solid WR2 in fantasy. The move to Baltimore certainly helps his chances as he gets away from game-manager extraordinaire Alex Smith, who once somehow went a full season without throwing a touchdown to a receiver (in 2014 for those keeping score at home). Maclin has WR2 upside at WR4 pricing.
Biggest Reach: Justin Tucker (K, BAL) - Tucker is hands down the best fantasy kicker. That being said, it's hard to justify using a mid-round pick on a kicker. Of course, Tucker won fantasy championships in 2013 with a 61-yard field goal so there's that, but I generally prefer to wait until the last round to select a kicker in leagues.
Round 10 Recap
The 10th round saw two defenses drafted, along with a quarterback, three running backs, three wideouts, and three tight ends. James White, fresh of off being the Patriots' Super Bowl hero, should return to his role as the team's third-down back. Of course, trying to predict New England's running back usage is a fool's errand. The best (and least rational) bet is to draft them all and hope for someone to rise to the top. Or at least pick the two you like best and snag them. The Broncos have been an elite fantasy defense for a few years now and should be one of the first defenses off the board in all fantasy drafts.
Ebron looked like a better pick in early August before another injury popped up. He has missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury, taking away some of his sleeper appeal. Martellus Bennett may be the most talented tight end Aaron Rodgers has played with, at least since the days of Jermichael Finley. He's a great late-round tight end for those who wait on the position. Excellent as a pass catcher and running between the tackles, Duke Johnson could be an RB1 if something happens to Isaiah Crowell. He's a fantastic Zero-RB target in drafts. Kenny Britt will likely be catching passes from Brock Osweiler. Of course, he managed a 1,000-yard season catching passes from the Rams' quarterbacks in 2016. The Panthers keep calling Jonathan Stewart their starting running back, despite the presence of Christian McCaffrey. Jordan Matthews was an Eagle at the time of this pick. As Buffalo's de facto No. 1 receiver, it's doubtful he'll be available this late in drafts much longer.
Best Pick: Jordan Matthews (BUF, WR) - Nathan Powell lucked out on this one as Matthews went from possibly splitting snaps with Nelson Agholor in a crowded Eagles receiving corps to being the Bills' top receiving threat. He has put together a wildly productive three-year stretch to open his career and should continue to be a solid WR3 in fantasy this season.
Biggest Reach: Charles Clay (BUF, TE) - Clay usually goes undrafted in 16-team leagues, making this selection a bit of a reach. The Bills figure to skew run-heavy again this season and are hardly trying to conceal the fact that they are tanking the 2017 season at this point.
