X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Sonny Gray Traded to the Twins - Fantasy Impact

Starting pitcher Sonny Gray was traded from the Cincinnati Reds to the Minnesota Twins ahead of the 2022 MLB season. Brian Entrekin breaks down the fantasy baseball impact of this deal.

While the CBA was agreed upon last week, we all knew that the MLB Hot Stove would fire up, and it is heating up. The Reds have been rumored to be seeking suitors for some of their starting pitchers and found a match with the Twins on Sunday. They agreed to send Sonny Gray and minor league right-hander Francis Peguero to the Twins for the 2021 first-round pick in right-hander Chase Petty.

The Twins have been and still need starting pitching help, so dealing for Gray is a step in the right direction. Gray will become the team’s number one starter and joins Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Randy Dobnak in the rotation. They will need to add more depth, but this is a start and comes just a day after they traded away catcher Mitch Garver for Isiah Kiner-Falefa

The easy response to the trade is saying this is a big boost for Gray. Sure it is. Leaving Great American Ball Park is a plus and an improvement in the defense behind him. However, there are some other factors favoring Gray, so let’s take a deeper dive into the fantasy impact of Sonny Gray joining the Minnesota Twins. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

An Odd 2021 for Sonny

Gray is coming off a 2021 season where he made 26 starts, throwing 135.1 innings. He missed time with three IL stints due to a groin injury and a rib cage injury. Over the season, he racked up a 4.19 ERA to go with a 3.66 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA, and 3.25 xERA. So, maybe things were not as bad as they seemed initially. 

One of his most significant problems in 2021 was a 1.26 HR/9 and a 16.5% HR/FB, which were both his worst since 2016, his last season in Oakland. He continued to get his fair share of groundballs (47.2%) and gave us his career-worst in fly balls at 32.1%. His contact rates were also higher than in previous seasons, which did not help the cause. The increase in fly balls, increase in his HR/FB, and increase in contact rates were a recipe for disaster. 

Even with the increased contact rates, he still limited the contact quality quite well. His barrel rate was 92% in baseball, while his hard-hit rate was good for 91% in baseball. Much of the quality of contact skills was due to his excellent pitch mix that features six pitches, but he primarily throws four. Gray threw his sinker 29.3%, 4-seam fastball 23.8%, curveball 23%, and slider 15.6% of the time. 

His slider limits production to the best of the four but also has a 51% strike rate which is horrible compared to the average league rate of 63%. However, since he does not get a lot of swing and miss with the slider, he throws the other three pitches more, giving him some strikeout success. Gray finished with a 30% CSW which helped him strike out 155 batters last year, suitable for a 27% rate, and with an 8.7% walk rate, he had a decent 18.3% K-BB. 

Overall, Gray had a decent year that could show some significant improvements in 2022 if he can limit the long ball and continue to rack up the strikeouts. He still gets a lot of ground balls while limiting hard contact, which will play well outside of Great American Ball Park. Let’s take a deeper look into the gains Gray may receive changing teams and the ballpark he will call home. 

 

A New Home in Minnesota

A change of scenery is sometimes a good thing, and in this instance, it can only be a good thing for Gray. He is leaving Great American Ball Park, a significant hitter’s park, and heading to Target Field, playing well for the pitcher. 

Park Factors Overall HR wOBACon
GABP 3rd 1st 2nd
Target Field 18th 20th 21st

For a pitcher with a significant increase in home run problems in 2021, Gray should benefit significantly from the park change. When looking at his Home/Road splits, we see just another reason why Gray will gladly take the difference in ballparks. 

IP ERA xFIP HR/FB AVG wOBA
Home 70 4.89 3.9 20.60% 0.232 0.322
Road 65.1 3.44 3.41 11.50% 0.216 0.274

As one can easily see, Gray gave up more hits, more home runs, and more overall offensive production when pitching at home in 2021 versus on the road. The park upgrade is nice, but so is the defense behind Gray. Gray is a heavy ground ball pitcher, and he will receive a massive upgrade in defense behind him by moving to the Twins.

OAA Runs Prevented
Reds 29th 30th (-30)
Twins 12th 7th (5)

The Reds' defense was one of the worst in baseball, and now Gray moves to a team near the top-10 in baseball. The ballpark and defense upgrades alone are a massive win in 2022.

 

2022 Fantasy Outlook

It’s easy to see that Gray’s fantasy value should take a positive bump with the move from Cincinnati to Minnesota. However, one concern could hold Gray back: his fastball. He throws it nearly as much as his sinker, and it just is not as effective as it once was. The velocity on the fastball has been dropping, and the offenses have been taking advantage of the drop. He was still solid when his fastball was over 93 mph; it was not good when it dropped. 

If Gray can gain some velocity or change his pitch mix to include more sinkers, curveballs, and sliders, he could be of tremendous value this season. Over the last couple of weeks in NFBC Online Championships, he has an ADP of 161.38, and we should see that ADP climb with the trade. I will buy Gray, enjoy the park and defensive improvements, and hope for a fastball velocity bump. You should join me and draft the value that is Sonny Gray. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Offseason Moves




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jack Kiser

Inks Rookie Deal With Jaguars
Mike Green

Expected to Sign Rookie Deal with Ravens on Thursday
Mike Williams

Retiring After Eight NFL Seasons
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Jordan Addison

Pleads Guilty to Lesser Offense, Gets Fine and Probation
Jordan Mims

Titans Add Backfield Depth With Jordan Mims
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Believed to be Recovered From Shoulder Injury
Najee Harris

Chargers Place Najee Harris on NFI List
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF