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Thunder Dan's Road Map to Winning Assists In 2025 Fantasy Basketball

Jalen Williams - NBA DFS Lineup Picks, Fantasy Basketball

Thunder Dan Palyo highlights roster-building strategies to win assists in fantasy basketball. Draft these players and win assists without having to punt other categories.

Over the last month, I've taken part in a number of mock drafts with other industry experts. Something I have noticed is that the popularity of a "punt assists" build this season is gaining some traction, as three of the top 25 assist guys in the NBA are all out for the season (Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, and Jayson Tatum).

With high-assist players being in high demand, the reaction may be to avoid overpaying for assists and just focus on other categories. But what if there is a way to remain competitive in assists weekly without paying a premium for a top assist player?

And what if you can build a team that is competitive in assists without having to punt turnovers or field goal percentage, too? Let's see if we can do it, and perhaps you'll consider this strategy on draft night!

Upgrade To VIP: Save 50% on any NBA Premium Pass using discount code SMASH. Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

Assists: A Scarce Commodity

If you didn't know, assists are some of the hardest stats to find in fantasy basketball. It makes sense, if you think about it, because there can be only one assist assigned on every made basket (this isn't hockey), and there are dozens of unassisted field goals in every game.

The average number of assists for an NBA player is 3.8. However, there is a steep drop from the elite assist producers to the median, and then the distribution flattens out in a big way. Only 90 NBA players averaged more than 3.8 assists last season, and only 49 of those averaged more than 5.0 per game. Here are all 49 of those players, with the top assist producers at the top.

(click to enlarge)

You'll notice that I used red to exclude Haliburton, Lillard, Fred VanVleet, and Tatum. Westbrook was a free agent, but has now signed with the Kings; Ben Simmons remains a free agent.

We can see that the only players who averaged more than seven assists last season who are going outside the first three rounds are Chris Paul (old and doesn't score), Dejounte Murray (coming off Achilles injury), and Ja Morant (insert your own snarky comment here). Let's assume you don't have the number one pick and can't get Jokic. You're going to have to spend a first-round pick on Trae Young or Cade Cunningham to grab another elite passer. James Harden also goes in the first round quite often, despite an ADP that reflects an early second-round selection.

Using this list, I am going to try to highlight some players to target in each round who can help you win assists, with my goal being to keep all other categories in play and not having to overpay for a high-assist player in one of the early rounds. In fact, let's see if we can build a winner in assists without a single player who averaged more than seven assists per game last year.

 

Second Round Targets

Tyrese Maxey - Philadelphia 76ers

If you pick late in round one, I think he's even worthy of a selection there. But if you go in a different direction in round one, and Maxey is there on the way back through in round two, he's a no-brainer. The sixth-year guard is primed for another huge campaign, whether or not he gets any help from injured stars Joel Embiid and/or Paul George. He's had over six assists in two straight seasons and was a top-ten player last year in 9-CAT per-game value.

With Maxey, you get six assists, while also getting 25+ points a night with three treys and relatively low turnovers (just 2.4, which is impressive for a guy with such a high usage rate). He shot just 43.7% from the field last year, but is a 46% shooter in his career. Oh, and he had his best defensive season last year with an impressive 1.8 steals per game. He's blossoming into a superstar and doesn't turn 25 until next month.

Jalen Williams - Oklahoma City Thunder

Williams has seen his ADP drop into the twenties, but I am happy taking him anywhere in the second half of the second round. He finished with 5.1 dimes last season and has no weaknesses in his 9-CAT game. He likely won't be out there on opening night, but he's not set to miss much time with his recovery from wrist surgery. Buy the dip! J-Dub is a stud who is just entering his prime and should continue to operate as the other main shot creator on OKC after SGA.

Jalen Johnson - Atlanta Hawks

If you have a chance to draft either Jalen, do it! Johnson is coming off an injury-riddled campaign in which he played just 36 games; however, he was absolutely awesome in those games. The only other players to average 10 boards and five assists per game last season were Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Johnson offers much more defensive upside than Sabonis and Sengun types, as he also posted 1.6 steals and 1.0 blocks per game.

The Hawks like to get out in transition, and Johnson has excelled as both a passer and finisher in his brief career thus far. His three-point shot is developing, and his ability to play beyond the three-point line allows Atlanta to create elite spacing for Trae Young on the pick and roll. Expect a big year from Johnson and the Hawks this season - stay healthy, bro!

Note: Alperen Sengun finished with 4.9 assists per game last season, but should be over 5+ a game this year in Houston as the Rockets run more offense through him with Fred VanVleet out for the year. He doesn't hit threes and shot just 69% from the line, so he does have a few more warts to his game, but should be a strong source of big man assists as he does his best Domantas Sabonis impression this year.

 

Third Round Targets

Jamal Murray - Denver Nuggets

I am a huge fan of Murray's fantasy game. He provided six assists per game last year, while shooting 47% from the floor and keeping his turnovers to a tidy 2.1 per contest. The offense runs through Jokic in Denver, but Murray is still able to generate assists in the pick-and-roll and out in transition. You can't go wrong drafting Denver players in category leagues. I have talked already about the "Jokic effect" in other articles - he just makes everyone else on the floor around him better.

Derrick White - Boston Celtics

White misses our five-assist cutoff from last season by just 0.2 assists, as he finished at 4.8 last year and another impressive 34th overall finish in per-game stats for 9-CAT.

I am bullish on him this year as I think he will have to take on more play-making and scoring duties to help fill the void left behind by Jayson Tatum. Even a small bump in assists takes him up over five per game and when you pair that passing with his elite defense and three-point shooting, you have the recipe for a top-25 player.

 

Fourth Round Targets

Desmond Bane - Orlando Magic

Bane averaged over five assists in each of his last two seasons in Memphis. His role will surely change in Orlando, but I think he will have the ball in his hands plenty and could continue to be a sneaky source of assists along with his elite percentages, three-point shooting, and low turnovers. I am higher on him than a lot of folks in the industry, but his game fits so nicely in 9-CAT, and I don't think his volume of stats falling off all that much in Orlando - they gave up a lot of assets to get him and view him as a big part of what they are building there.

Jimmy Butler III - Golden State Warriors

Butler isn't a sexy pick in drafts, but he gets the job done when he's healthy. He looked a bit like the old Jimmy after being dealt to Golden State last season, and he's really embraced being more of a facilitator than a scorer late in his career. He had one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the league last year and can help you remain competitive in both FG% and turnovers while producing assists and steals.

Austin Reaves - L.A. Lakers

Reaves has been rocketing up draft boards, especially since the news broke that LeBron James would miss the start of the season with an injury. He was absolutely fantastic last season for the Lakers, both before and after the Luka trade. Luka's presence in L.A. has not negatively affected his overall game or assist production.

With more usage last season came a dip in FG% and a few more turnovers, but his 46% shooting from the field and 2.4 turnovers were not anchors for fantasy teams by any means. Reaves is a good passer, and the Lakers will need him to have another big year as a core contributor. The arrival of Deandre Ayton should certainly help, too, as he should pair well with the Lakers' ball-handlers in the pick-and-roll.

 

Fifth Round Targets

Darius Garland - Cleveland Cavaliers

We have a pair of targets in the fifth round who are set to miss the start of the season, but offer some tantalizing combinations of stats that just so happen to include some really nice assist totals. Garland's timetable is still uncertain, but if he returns at the early end of his window, he may miss only 3-4 weeks of the regular season.

Garland averaged 6.7 assists last year and has averaged at least six dimes per contest in five straight seasons. He's quietly efficient as a shooter and posted the best FG% of his career last year at 47.2%. When he does get healthy, he will be plugged back into one of the most talented offenses in the NBA and should continue to provide solid assist totals to go along with threes, steals, and solid percentages.

Tyler Herro - Miami Heat

The reporting around Herro's injury is very murky. He was originally set to miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks to start the year, but the rumors are that he is recovering from surgery quicker than expected. We aren't likely to see the Heat rush him back, but if he beats his timetable by even a week or two, you could be getting some really nice value on Herro as he has been falling in drafts.

After Jimmy Butler left Miami last season, Herro took over even more play-making duties for the Heat. He finished with 5.5 assists per game on the year, and I think he has the upside to crack 6+ this year with how much he will likely have the ball in his hands. He doesn't offer many defensive stats, but the scoring, threes, dimes, and solid percentages more than make up for it.

 

Sixth Round Targets

Josh Hart - New York Knicks

I am well aware that the whole fantasy community is down on Josh Hart this year, as he's heading to the bench to reprise his sixth man role in New York. But his ADP has been falling like a stone, and I really think he could be turning into a bargain if you get him in the sixth or even seventh round.

Hart is the ultimate glue guy, and I'm not entirely ready to bury him just because the Knicks want to start Mitchell Robinson. I think he's still going to get plenty of run when the Knicks go smaller, and that he could continue to keep his assist totals up this year with his bench role, as he could be asked to facilitate with the second unit. Hart's all-around production is still quite 9-CAT friendly and not rooted in his scoring, so a minutes dip isn't going to completely kill his value. I bet he still averages five dimes this year.

Andrew Nembhard - Indiana Pacers

You may even be able to land Nembhard in the 7th round this year if your league mates aren't factoring in the bump he should get in scoring and assists with Tyrese Haliburton out all season. Nembhard averaged just 10 points per game last year but was outstanding in the Pacers' playoff run. He doesn't offer much upside in threes, but he took great care of the basketball last year with just 1.7 turnovers.

 

Later Round Targets

D-Lo should start at the point for Dallas for at least half the season and is a cheap source of assists. Let's just hope he's a bit more efficient shooting the basketball this year. Holiday could see an uptick in production in Portland as he will no longer be the fifth option on offense. Portland needs a steady presence at the point, and if they are serious about winning, Holiday initiating the offense more often instead of Deni Avdija or Shaedon Sharpe is the right move. He has 5+ assist upside and is being taken outside the top-100.

Sheppard is a sexy sleeper on everyone's list this year. He may or may not be a big assist guy; it all likely depends on whether he starts or comes off the bench, but he can fill it up as a scorer, that's for sure. Collier is somewhat of a one-trick pony, as he doesn't excel in any other area better than league average. However, six-assist players don't grow on trees, and you can easily get him late in drafts if you feel like you didn't get enough dimes in the early rounds.

Mitchell averaged 4.9 assists last year for Miami, but doesn't really score or offer much upside anywhere else. He has a short window to start the season where he could pop off while Tyler Herro is out, so he's worth drafting late until we see what his role will be after Herro comes back.

 

Conclusion

Let's do a quick little exercise to see if my math checks out, and I can leave you convinced that you DON'T NEED TO PUNT ASSISTS THIS SEASON!

Here's a quick comparison of two potential builds. Player A is going to take Devin Booker in the first round and then pair him with LaMelo Ball or Josh Giddey in round two to try to lock down assists early. Because they think they cornered the market on assists with two of the top-ten guys, they then proceed to draft big men, wings, and shooting guards who are not strong in assists in the next four rounds. For the sake of this scenario, let's just say their next four picks average about 3 assists per game.

Player A's First Six Picks

  • 1st round, Booker - 7 assists
  • 2nd round, Giddey - 7 assists
  • 3rd rounder - 3.5 assists
  • 4th rounder - 3 assists
  • 5th rounder - 2.5 assists
  • 6th rounder - 3 assists

Total assists per game from first six picks = 26 assists per game.

Now, Player B is going to try to take one of my targets from each tier. I realize there aren't too many big men in here, but there are still some strong rebounders and a few shot-blockers, too. I'll even account for one of these top six picks being a non-passing big man and assign him just two assists per game. And just for fun, I am going to have them take Tyrese Maxey in the first round (because he's worth it, damn it!)

Player B's First Six Picks

  • 1st round, Maxey - 6 assists
  • 2nd round, J. Johnson - 5 assists
  • 3rd round, Murray - 6 assists
  • 4th round, Butler - 5 assists
  • 5th round, Big Man (pick your favorite - Duren, Allen, Turner) - 2 assists
  • 6th round, Nembhard - 5 assists

Total assists from first six picks = 29 assists per game.

Team A has the two best pure passers, but Team B has likely a more well-rounded team and more total assists without any guys who will kill you in turnovers or FG%. Do this activity again with a different player in each of the rounds, and you are still going to come out ahead.

Sure, if one team gets Jokic or Trae Young plus another 7+ assist player, it will be tough to beat them in assists, but you can still beat the other teams in your league. And remember, you don't have to win the same five categories every week. You can lose in assists to 1-2 of the best teams and beat them in other categories, too.

This was fun, I hope you enjoyed it. Thanks for reading my content this draft season, and I wish you the best of luck this fantasy basketball season!



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