RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 10 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
We are officially in the home stretch. But do not think for a second you are about to just cruise to the fantasy playoffs. Things are about to get bumpy with byes about to hit. In four of the next five weeks, four teams are on bye. In two of those, there are six.
This article is about to get a whole lot more important for those trying to survive that stretch. If you are comfortably going to make the playoffs, then you should be looking to make trades to bolster your roster for Week 15. If you are fighting for your playoff life, you need to make trades that help you more now.
One way you can do that is by trading a player who is about to have their bye week for one that has already had it. You should also start to consider trading injured players, even if you do not get the full value if they are healthy. Many of us are just in survive, win the week, and advance mode right now!
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
I am officially in on Drake Maye! He has shown flashes that he could be a special QB in this league. Maybe even some Josh Allen-like flashes. That is not why I am excited about him in fantasy, though. Nope, that is all because of what he does with his legs. In three full starts, Maye is averaging 18.7 fantasy PPG. Including the game that he left early, he's averaging 49 rushing yards per game and ran for 95 last week. That elevates his fantasy floor and ceiling so much. He is not afraid to air the ball out, so he is always a big-play threat.
Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye are the future pic.twitter.com/xlzRuZ6mRw
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) November 6, 2024
Bo Nix, like Drake Maye, has been an awesome fantasy asset due to his legs. He has topped 17 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. The floor is relatively safe and the upside is high. It is largely due to his running ability, but he has been putting up more yards through the air and has multiple passing touchdowns in three of his last five games. I do not love his matchup this week, but his rushing ability keeps him in play as a bye-week replacement.
Justin Herbert has his three highest yardage totals in each of his last three games. He has averaged 303 passing yards per game in that span. He has multiple passing touchdowns in two straight. He is coming off his two best fantasy games of the season. Things are looking up for Herbert and the Chargers passing attack. He is back to being in play as a streaming or bye-week replacement option.
Aaron Rodgers brings more of a safe floor than a high ceiling, but when talking about bye-week replacements, that is enough. Rodgers now has multiple passing touchdowns in four of his last five games. He has topped 17 fantasy points in three of his last four. Now, he gets the Cards, who are in the top 12 in fantasy PPG allowed to QBs. He is in play this week.
Russell Wilson has scored 25 and 14 fantasy points in his two starts. That is a high ceiling and a safe floor for a streaming option. He faces the Commanders, who are middle of the pack against QBs but could score plenty of points. That could lead to Russ having to throw a bit more.
If you need an RB…
Jaylen Warren may not have the same role as last season, but he has seen more usage as of late. Since returning, he has had three targets in every game. He has 21 carries in his last two games combined. Plus, he is getting healthier and could get his full burst back. That is important as the Commanders have allowed explosive runs at the highest rate in the NFL. Warren brings upside in this matchup.
Tyler Allgeier sees a lot of work in some weeks, and in others, not so much. In the last month, he has a game with 19 and 12 opportunities, and in the other two, he had six in each. The matchup against the Saints, though, makes him worth a shot if you need a deeper option. New Orleans has allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to RBs in the last month. Allgeier turned 10 touches into 80 yards in his first matchup against it.
Highest team run rates when a RB is on the field...
Derrick Henry 63.8%
Ray Davis 60.8%
Tank Bigbsy 58.2%
Carson Steele 57.3%
Kareem Hunt 56.4%
Joe Mixon 55.3%
Tyler Allgeier 54.3%
Najee Harris 54.3%
Brian Robinson 53.8%
David Montgomery 53.6%
Zamir White 52.3%— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 4, 2024
Ray Davis is still not getting a ton of volume, but he has the big-play capability. He turned six touches into 90 yards and a touchdown last week. He has topped 11 fantasy points in three of his last four, and in two of those cleared 17. He is boom or bust, but the matchup has him in play as a deeper pivot option, as the Colts have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs.
If you need a WR…
Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are both in play as pivot options with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season. Jennings is my preferred option and he may just be a straight-up start. We have seen numerous big games out of him already this season and he has a clear rapport with Brock Purdy. Pearsall has nine targets in his last two games combined and is tied to a very strong QB. The Bucs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG to WRs.
Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel at #49ers practice.
Samuel is in the blue no-contact jersey as he recovers from a ribs/oblique injury.
Jennings has missed the past 2 games. #FTTB pic.twitter.com/sp6PZgGPnK
— Matt Lively (@mattblively) November 6, 2024
Xavier Legette is a sleeper I like a lot this week. He has 13 targets in the last two games combined. He has caught a touchdown in two straight and topped 13 fantasy points in each. He runs nearly 70 percent of his routes out wide and the Giants have allowed by far the highest passer rating on targets to outside receivers. Jalen Coker is a fantasy darling. He brings upside, but a low floor in this matchup.
Xavier Legette
Top 24 WR Weeks 8-9 with Bryce Young at QB.
6+ Targets & 1 TD in both those games.
Averaging 8.5+ Yards per catch.
Favorite to lead CAR in Targets down the stretch.
Panthers will be ALWAYS be trailing and need to throw.
Nice Flex.
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) November 5, 2024
Quentin Johnston has been more involved in the Chargers passing attack. He is coming off a huge game and yes, he caught a long touchdown on a broken play. The down games he had also came in two of the toughest matchups against the Broncos and Chiefs. Johnston is boom or bust, but there is an upside there, which makes him a pivot option.
Noah Brown led the Commanders in targets, catches, and yards. He played the second-most snaps of Commanders receivers behind Terry McLaurin and has six targets in two straight games. He is also the second-best deep threat besides McLaurin. So the opportunity that he has been seeing, paired with the QB that he is tied to, has him in play as an upside streaming option.
Demarcus Robinson has four touchdowns in his last two games. That production is not sustainable, but it shows the upside that he brings in a given week. The Rams offense is near elite when all the playmakers are healthy, and this could be a high-scoring game against the Dolphins. Robinson is an upside shot worth taking for those diving deeper this week.
DeMario Douglas is coming off a nine-target game. It is the third time in five games that he has nine targets and the fourth time this season. That sort of volume keeps him in play for fantasy purposes. The floor is low for Douglas, but volume is what we care about if you are diving deeper.
Ray-Ray McCloud III would be in play if, and only if, Drake London misses time. The floor is low, but he could see added volume if London is out. He has three games this season with seven-plus targets. He caught his first touchdown of the season last week. The Saints have struggled against receivers as of late. McCloud is a real deep streamer this week.
If you need a TE…
Hunter Henry is one of the targets that Drake Maye trusts most. In the last four games, Henry has averaged 13.1 fantasy PPG. That number jumps to 14.3 if you only count the three games Maye finished. The Bears are inside the top 10 in yards allowed to tight ends since Week 5, so Henry is certainly in play this week.
Mike Gesicki is pretty straightforward at this point. You can play him when Tee Higgins sits. In each of the last two games, he topped 70 yards and saw at least six targets. We also saw him do that in Week 2 when Higgins was out. When Higgins plays, you can count on two targets or less. With the Ravens giving up so much production through the air, he is a fantastic pivot play as long as Higgins sits.
Theo Johnson is coming off a season-high in targets and yards, plus he scored his first touchdown last week. He has played 85 percent of the snaps in four straight games. Now, he gets the Panthers, who have allowed the fourth-most yards and touchdowns to tight ends. He is worth a shot if you are diving a bit deeper at tight end.
Theo Johnson just keeps getting better each week for #Giants100 .#TheDraftStartsInMOBILE™️ pic.twitter.com/zPKK1dwQxI
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) November 3, 2024
Ja'Tavion Sanders has seen at least five targets in four of his last five games. He has topped 60 yards and double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three. The increased usage paired with Bryce Young playing better as of late has Sanders in play as a streaming option this week.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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